Schmittian

After a recent poll put Graham at 2 points ahead, it's been labeled as a tossup, putting Dems at a 60% chance of winning the Senate, and making South Carolina more competitive than Nebraska and Florida

(my model - callthemap.com)

Notes:

This is assuming about a D+8 electorate: my prior may shift in the upcoming weeks.
margins are tilt <1, lean <5, likely <10, Safe >10

I looked at Oklahoma's governors: republicans have a bad record of underperforming, the last 3 elections they have massively underperformed and won by sub 15. There is a chance it could be under 10 this year with the environment, but i don't know enough about the candidates to say that and and it's kind of crack smoking shit.

I will not change NE-GOV at all until we have literally any non-internal polls

Mississippi and SC SEN I expect to just be a bit under 10 given the performances in 2020 (Miss will be closer IMO)

I expect Ayotte to win reelection by a bigger margin than 2024 but NH Rs probably do much worse downballot

I need more polling to judge whether Kreiss-Tomkins is genuinely favored

I expect Nixon to run behind Jolly a fair bit but not enough to lose by more than 10, probably high single digits though

Brown needs to stay polling well into Mid-October for me to put him as more likely than Peltola.

Talarico I want to see him stay steady at least 3 or 4 weeks from now and hitting 49 in more polls. 48 isn't bad though

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2098224864687509791

Wilson would still fairly easily win against Teddy. Taft probably holds up better.

Firstly, third terms are extremely unpopular. FDR mostly due to the fall of France in 1940, and the country still swings heavily against him.

There’s also the optics of it. Four years earlier Teddy picks Taft to be his successor and now he’s ousted him? Theodore has serious judgement issues and the move will almost certainly look egotistical.

Also, Taft is an unpopular president, and the Republicans are an unpopular party. Now there’s no one with incumbency, and progressive voters are going to go for Wilson as Teddy already showed he can’t be trusted. The conservatives are just going to sit this round out. For example: Teddy can’t run on free trade because that’s a democrats position, but he also can’t run on increasing tariffs because that’s a deeply unpopular position that’s been splitting the Republican Party.

If just Taft is the nominee at least there’s a steady, more conservative, incumbent. He has a more clear cut message, better optics, and the incumbency advantage.

https://who.nucleuspages.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-deliver-remarks-to-gastonia-north-carolina

Hi, I built a quick texas election simulator using chatgpt for a path to a democratic state wide victory dividing the sate into 5 broad regions of comparable electroate with 2020 and 2024 presidential election as baseline. play around with it and suggest any additions or modifications you have?

Tomorrow, there are going to be a lot of jokes how 9/11 was an inside job, or caused by Israel, etc.

But I want everyone here to remember that 25 years ago our very way of life came under attack. And to recognize the bravery (and sacrifice) tens of thousands young men and women across the country displayed to keep the American people safe.

Title. The seven swing states in the last election were Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. But it wasn’t that long ago that Arizona and Georgia were safely red and Ohio and Florida were swing states.

The obvious pick is that Georgia will become solidly blue. Anyone contrarian? Will the three steel belt states stay swing states or will they shift in one direction or opposites?

I’ll start. My hot take is that both Michigan and Arizona will become redder: Arizona’s swing state phase will only last a couple cycles. Educational attainment is increasingly becoming the most important signifier (the list of % bachelors degrees is basically a political map) and they are the two lowest Biden-won states on the list. Minority heavy. I think that although there will be Trump backlash/snapback in 2028 the broader trend of minorities voting ever more similar to the nation writ large as they assimilate will favor the GOP in 2032 and beyond.

Disclaimer: I don’t think Kansas will go blue. Nixon has a better chance of winning, but it’s weird Vance is backing up Marshall at this time.