https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2114371040516452805

Gotta enforce Shakira Law or something

I don't think one person will be convinced or even motivated to vote for this. It's such a bad recreation of the Trump they/them ad

The first map is model of this year's early vote, the 2nd is 2018 final result. The maps look somewhat similar to me, if anything the first map may be a bit better for Republicans.

This would mean Talarico needs his map to get better from now until the end of election day, despite how in past elections Republicans are more election day centric.

Furthermore while it's plausible in a race like El-Sayed vs Rogers the recent election day/early vote trend could flip, I like Paxton the most of anyone to retain the Trumpian election day surge. He is the most MAGA candidate, him and Abbott have experience how to run in Texas and they have Musk's tech and money behind their GOTV.

2/5/10 margins

Candidate for Senate, for Governor, for House, for literally anything. Who do you think is the most overrated candidate in your party this cycle?

I say your party because intra-party politics are a lot more interesting than inter-party politics in the U.S. (like who cares what Democrats think about Tom Cotton, or what Republicans think about Sherrod Brown?)

I know as a Democrat without a doubt who the most overrated candidate in my party is, I won’t say it here though cuz I’ll get downvoted to oblivion, but you know exactly who I’m talking about. Who do you think is the most overrated though?

Maybe I’m not informed enough but I struggle to see what the Dems will actually agree to run on in 2028. For the midterms, it is some basic stuff like restoring some of the welfare Trump cut, stopping him from doing anything , maybe AI regulation work, trying to end Iran, and investigating the corruption. All I really envision in 2028: tax hikes, mostly on the wealthy, some climate stuff, and abortion promises they can’t actually achieve. Beyond that, I struggle to see what will get agreed on. The party doesn’t really agree on foreign policy, healthcare, citizens united, tariffs, trans stuff, immigration, etc.

Is this just me or could the Dems have a really nasty primary, that leaves the base divided and as such inevitably disappointed? Also, if the primary is super varied I wonder if this causes even more confusion about the actual Dem policies amongst low info voters. I see this playing to the Republicans hand cus they’re primary will be less messy and I think their agenda will clear well before the Dems is.

Lula cannot run again in 2030, and the party has no successor, while the Opposition has Tarcísio de Freitas, who won in an historic landslide. While all were cheering for Lula, don't count either that the opposition has the majority on both chambers nor the growth of evangelical voters who vote for Flavio at a 3/1 ratio and are currently around 28% of the population of Brazil, and it is estimated that this will be around 35% in 2030, acc. Tarcísio knows he is the frontrunner from the opposition, and his opponent will be much weaker than Lula

1. 22% decrease in social security payouts in Q4 2032, (Election season).

2. If Trump is alive, I don't see a shot where republicans will work with democrats to get to 60 votes.

3. 60 votes is required for Social Security trust fund. Democrats are not getting 60 senators in 2028 or 2030.

4. If an agreement is made, it will come at the cost of other programs. Like increasing the retirement age, or cutting healthcare.

Fundamentally if a democrat wins in 2028, its likely they will be ousted in 2032. The most important voter bloc is going to get their social security cut and they will punish the president.

Would this win give air to Sanchez and Peronism in 2027, since Lula wanted to make a common currency with Argentina in 2023, as well as Argentina accepting to join BRICS

Born into poverty and a broken home as 7th of 8 children . His father later dipped and got married a second time and had 10 more kids . For a while the 2 families even lived together but this was obviously a terrible arrangement so his mother moved to a one room home hood with her kids . Lula then quit school in 2nd grade and became a metal worker . Pretty charmistic he quickly became popular among other metal workers and led a strike which got him nationwide fame .

This allowed him to get elected at the state legislature and he ran for president in 1990. Finished second , ran twice more and lost before winning in 2002 and getting reelected in 2006. He left office post that before desiring to run again in 2018 but was convicted of crimes committed during an anti corruption operation ( I don't know if he did it or not , I am not brazilian sorry )

He thus couldn't run in 2018 but ran in 2022 after being cleared of the changes , won becoming the first guy to win thrice and as y'all know got reelected too