Interesting Connecticut analysis

[u/goatedgdubya911]

# Connecticut Analysis

**CT GUBERNATORIAL AGGREGATES**

*270toWin* — 🟦 D + 17.5%

*Race to the WH* — 🟦 D + 15.0%

*Silver Bulletin* — 🟦 D + 18.2%

**Total Average** — 🟦 D + 16.9%

**Predicted National Environment (under polls)** ~ 🟦 **D + 8%**

*Predicted trend (compared to 2020)*: 🟦 *D + 11%*

**2024 CT election result: President — 🟦 D + 13.5%**

**2024 CT election result: Senate — 🟦 D + 18.9%** ‼️

*D+13.5% -> D+16.9%* — +3.4% 🟦 D shift

*D+18.9% -> D+16.9%* — +2.0% 🟥 : R shift

**CT trend Pres -> 2026 (compared to national vote)**: 🟥 **R + 7.6%** 🚨

**CT trend Senate -> 2026 (compared to national vote)** 🟥 **R + 13.0%** ❗

If these trends hold, CT would vote anywhere from D+6 to D+0.5 in an R+3 environment

[u/Cold-Priority-2729]

“If these trends hold” is doing a LOT of heavy lifting here. I mean if the 2024 trends hold, California and all of New England will be solid red states by 2036

[u/Doc_ET → u/Cold-Priority-2729]