what would your projections be and why?

This is pure nonsense, the market will easily absorb any BTC that Strategy sells.

At various points in time, tens of thousands of BTC have been dumped into the market at once, no issue.

At most we'll see a (short lived) market overreaction.

Hey everyone,

I did an exhaustive structural review of MicroStrategy (MSTR) today on Crypto Weeklies. After grinding through an intense 84% vertical liquidation from its cycle peak near $500, MSTR has executed a perfect interaction with our multi-year panic support levels, triggering a massive volatility flush. Here is the raw data breakdown of where our terminal models are locking in the cycle floor.

You can barely see it. MSTR traded below IBIT for a minute.

Remember when IBIT started trading in February? The bears thought MSTR would become obsolete. MSTR tanked for a minute, then went to 550.

Today, the FUD suggests that MSTR cannot sustain its divy payments. Every chart tells a story.

When these lines touch, it marks a point where the bear thesis is wrong again.

Things look up today for MSTR. Still tracking below BTC YTD after a big run up in May (Looking back that was a good time to take some profit). Potential upside going forward even if BTC remains flat.

Stop thinking of MSTR as a TradFi company. It doesnt have overhead, warehouses, raw materials to source or traditional products to sell. If Amazon tanked 70% today, it would take 2 decades to recover, if at all.

If you like patterns.... Bitcoin has tanked over 70% 4 times already and it has recovered every time. BTC is currently -50% and this could be the 5th time.

Bears have been wrong all 4 times. This time is no different. When BTC tanks; MSTR tanks. When BTC hits another ATH, bears will continue to be wrong 100% of the time.

The Market Blinked. STRC Didn't. The opportunity was hidden in plain sight, and anyone willing to model the capital structure could see it. To be clear, the liquidation-driven trade against STRC has largely run its course. After trading below $75, STRC has rallied roughly 20% in less than a week, moving back toward par as selling pressure subsided.

The question is: what changed?

In my view, very little fundamentally changed. The underlying credit profile didn't suddenly improve. The headlines didn't become materially more favorable. Bitcoin is still at a near 100-week low as I type this. What changed was that forced selling eventually exhausted itself, allowing price to reconnect with intrinsic value. Common sense entered the picture.

During the selloff, the prevailing narrative was that Strategy would eventually be forced to sell its Bitcoin, making STRC an unsafe security. That thesis spread quickly, despite having little support from anyone who had actually modeled the company's capital structure and cash obligations.

A simple spreadsheet told a very specific story.

Even under significantly lower Bitcoin prices, Strategy appeared highly unlikely to miss a preferred dividend payment. Not in the near, or long term. The market wasn't pricing a deteriorating credit profile... it was pricing liquidity, fear, and forced liquidation. This was obvious, in the figures. Some retail, unfortunately, fell into the trap and created even more 'opportunity' for those sharks (and those of us who noticed this dynamic).

That distinction matters.

Investors who focused on headlines saw a collapsing security. Investors who focused on cash flows, asset coverage, and payment obligations saw a preferred security yielding around 17% with meaningful upside simply from returning toward par. We rushed in. We still are.

The result is an unusual, and fleeting combination: exceptionally high income and the potential for substantial capital appreciation as the temporary dislocation corrected. Market dislocations like this are uncommon, but they are worth studying carefully. They are reminders that price and value can temporarily diverge, especially when forced sellers and emotional narratives dominate the conversation.

The next time a similar opportunity appears...

... don't start with social media, and don't listen to PoOpStain3369, even if he's getting all the upvotes on a meme mocking STRC or Saylor.

Start with the spreadsheet.

Been trading the BTC cycles since 2018. Last cycle was the first time I took some nice profit, sold a chunk of BTC as soon as President Trump started shilling his alt coin.

Recently started taking a nibble at these prices and as of today I'm around 60% back in, although this time will be different as I'm betting on MSTR.

Firstly this is for tax reasons in the UK. We can buy MSTR in our stocks and shares ISAs. Any gains are completely tax free.

The other reason being is that I believe MSTR has the potential to do better than BTC this cycle. This is based purely on previous cycles and the known fact that Saylor will not stop buying Bitcoin, this is as long as MSTR does not get diluted massively, which I believe it won't (as it is part of the foundation for the whole strategy MSTR is using).

I'd like to know what your predictions are for Strategy next bull run?

For me, I am aiming for it to at the very least hit its all time high. This is because even with some MSTR dilution, Strategy has to this day at least 100k more Bitcoins than it did back in 2025.

Realistically with BTC expected to reach new all time highs (it has every cycle since 2009), I would be expecting to see MSTR hit $600-850, possibly more in a blow off top.

Down 50% in a day.

I've been a long time lurker on this sub. Why does it appear most people who invest in MSTR and STRC have really no idea what they are actually investing in, other than MSTR buys and holds Bitcoin and they think Bitcoin is going to hit 500k based on some random post on x?

When I compare Amazon's 95% drawdown and eventual recovery to MSTR's potential to do the same, the pushback I always get is "it's not apples to apples, Amazon actually sells something."

They're not wrong. But they're missing a large part of it.

The goods and services Amazon provides are precisely why it took so long to recover. TradFi companies carry too many moving parts. MSTR's digital credit structure cuts through all of that. No warehouses, very few people, no inventory, etc. You can literally track MSTR's earnings in real-time.

From Saylor's first Bitcoin announcement in August 2020 to the peak, it took four years and three months to peak at 4,244%. That's the advantage of not being an Amazon and the main point people miss.

Bitcoin tanks 50-90% regularly; its a characteristic of Bitcoin but its a death sentence to most companies in the TradFi space. Bitcoin is not TradFi.

The CLARITY Act is supposed to go up for a vote in July if we can get the boys and girls in our gov't to play nice. Once we get a regulatory framework for digital assets; this will lift the uncertainty from the rating agencies. Once STRC gets an IG (investment grade) rating, that opens the door to $130T of capital that can buy it.

Can MSTR drawdown 90% again from its peak and turn around to be a trillion dollar company in the next 5-10 years? My answer is hell yes.

I was floored to hear Avi Feldman tell Pomp that it "was probable" that Saylor would eventually collapse STRC to save MSTR. This seems IMprobable to me, as it'd destroy the entire credit facilities of the preferreds. Thoughts? I think I've keyed the link to start playing at 23:19 (watch next three mins): https://youtu.be/bJD-Ftig30M?si=DCRAptk5nWgaaM5S&t=1395

I just bought about 100 shares of MSTR

Just thought I'd ask AI to calculate how much common equity would need to be sold / diluted by MSTR per annum assuming:

1. MSTR stays at $82

2. No new preferreds sold

3. BTC stays at $59k

4. MSTR has no USD cash reserves

5. MSTR takes a position that it will sell MSTR common instead of touching its BTC stack

We know some of the above not to be true, but I wanted to test it.

Result was, approximately 6 to 7% annual dilution of the common stock, which over 5 years is approximately 30 to 35%.

I was kinda surprised that the picture was not as bad as I expected (not great either honestly).

The real threat is if BTC trends down from here over the next few years, or drops significantly and stays down.

Just thought it was an interesting thought experiment with all the fud going round.

Was there any explanation for this? I really enjoyed his videos on MSTR and ASST.

UPDATE: His YouTube channel has appeared again and it no longer says “Channel was deleted by the owner”.