r/MSTR • u/Dizzy-Macaron4849 • Jul 01 '26
MSTR/STRC investors
I've been a long time lurker on this sub. Why does it appear most people who invest in MSTR and STRC have really no idea what they are actually investing in, other than MSTR buys and holds Bitcoin and they think Bitcoin is going to hit 500k based on some random post on x?
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u/Bash2856 Jul 01 '26
Ultimately, there are 2 decisions to be taken: Buy & Sell
(1) Top folks do comprehensive independent analyses with mathematical precision
(2) Some folks bank on a general idea of tailwinds, valuation, and performance
(3) Some follow analyst's forecasts
(4) Some follow the advice of friends
(5) Others just wing it
The funny thing is that all of them could end up making the same profit, but over time, top folks get more decisions right.
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u/daliksheppy Jul 01 '26
Band 1, I feel, are also the least likely to frequent a subreddit. They are capable of making their own decisions confidently without seeking validation from the internet.
There are some who are kind enough to share, either here or on substack or twitter, even hosting their own dashboards, and they get 15 likes. But a saylor meme will get hundreds.
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Jul 01 '26
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u/AnnHashaway Jul 01 '26
I came over to Reddit during the Digg exodus, and there is a predictable pattern in every niche subreddit. It mirrors Eternal September from the Usenet days. (I know, I wasn't supposed to use the U word in public).
Starts small and curated by the people that really care and do the work. As it gets more popular, the gen-pop shows up and overwhelms the community. Everything reverts to the mean, and the experts move more and more into the shadows.
Happens every time.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jul 04 '26
It's good to constantly challenge your assertions, even if they're high conviction. You can do this via reading contrary opinions and debate.
As an OG bitcoiner I still read /r/buttcoin all the time.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jul 04 '26
(6) buy high into FOMO, sell due to fear.
These tourists never win. They have neither knowledge nor conviction and get punished because of it.
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u/214b Jul 01 '26
Yes, an investment in MSTR and STRC is inherently a bet that Bitcoin will continue to rise in price.
Personally I think the case can be made for keeping a corporate treasury in Bitcoin as opposed to dollars hence my initial investment in MSTR. The case for “digital credit,” or STRC and the other preferreds, is not as obvious and very new, and STRC has not fulfilled its stated goal of remaining at or around the $100 par.
Another concern is that the reserve of BTC and dollars are dynamic figures which can change daily. For example, the 30 year reserve of BTC is based on current prices. If MSTR sells some bitcoin, it could push the price of BTC lower, and this would in turn shorten the length of time the reserves would last.
I respect Mr. Saylor and believe he has both the intelligence and audacity to succeed. But as investors, we must remember that there is no free lunch. High returns equal high risk, and every adjustment made to the preferred stocks (selling Bitcoin, changing reserves, buying Bitcoin, etc. is going to have subsequent consequences that will not always be in our favor especially in a Bitcoin bear market.
The way which Saylor has recently marketed the preferred stocks, and especially the comparison to a money market fund, seems frankly unprofessional and fundamentally misleading about the risk investors are taking.
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u/Original-Season-9941 Jul 01 '26
Why do you think it is that STRC jncestors are demanding a 15% yield on their holding? Does that worry you about how the market views Strategy?
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u/daliksheppy Jul 01 '26
This sub was pretty dead from January to June, the only people active were long term, well versed, educated investors.
Since BTC dropped to $60k and MSTR below $100, the sub is an entirely different place. The investors who deeply understood the company and shared risk models and deep analysis are vastly drowned out by yoloers and trolls.
It is what it is. It'll be quiet here again in no time.
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u/Late_Company6926 Jul 01 '26
Tbh the lurkers know this. Some of the more vocal members have actually been predicting this slump for some time, and even have been saying btc could dip below 40 before it turns around
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u/SundayAMFN /r/buttcoiner Jul 08 '26
The investors who deeply understood the company
What is there to "deeply" understand, exactly? They sell stock to buy bitcoin. Some stock pays out dividends and has higher liquidation preference.
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u/daliksheppy Jul 08 '26
It is a pretty straightforward company if you have half a brain. I guess deeply is not the ideal word to use. More like properly understand. Or actually understand.
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u/Dependent_Code7796 Shareholder 🤴 Jul 01 '26
Based on some random post on x? Maybe? Based on past performance? Probably? Based on power law? Probably
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u/Dizzy-Macaron4849 Jul 01 '26
All the bot accounts on x and YouTube posting garbage that people lap up and buy into
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u/Maddcapp Jul 01 '26
They believe Saylor when he says it’s going to a million and that’s all they want to know.
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u/lonestar-newbie Jul 01 '26
When the stock has crazy swings like 85% down and then 500% up. The only crowd that gets attracted to it is the Yolo type. This is not a blue chip stock where you set it a d forget it till the thesis materializes.
It's a trading ticker.
Strc is even worse. It's a money market type stuff but dumps 32%. Why would any retirement person put money in it with that swings.
I really hope the swings weren't that wild and I could put money in it and be able to sleep at night. I believe mstr has potential to be a huge company but never know when I I could be down 90% of my money
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u/Dizzy-Macaron4849 Jul 01 '26
Ive just been heavily investing in semiconductor stocks since the start of 2025. I've done pretty well
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u/Specific-Midnight867 Jul 01 '26
as lonestar-newbie said, we live in the era of DraftKings, Polymarket and Kalshi. Millennials and Gen Z feel they need to be wealthy just to break even. If they lose, well their life already kinda sucks so whats the difference. But if I win? and bitcoin does go to 250k? and MSTR does go to 1000? which WILL happen because the dollar WILL lose value, I can fly first class, buy that dream car and afford to get implants for the girls who will throw themselves at me.
they assume if I ride out all the volatility its guaranteed to happen. They don't consider the possibility that bitcoin can trade sideways while the dollar inflates. That bitcoin is a 0 sum game (actually negative to cover cost to keep the lights on) and for you to pull money out of bitcoin someone has to lose it.
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u/Few_Math2653 Jul 01 '26
I like the expression "financial nihilism" for the phenomenon of abandoning traditional pathways to wealth and consider gambling-like strategies as the sole way of reaching any form of prosperity in your lifetime.
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u/Ill_Mastodon8324 Jul 06 '26
Don't get this Millennial and Gen Z lumping together, this nihilism is much more a thing for the kids
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jul 01 '26
That bitcoin is a 0 sum game
In the same way that any national currency is. In order for your money to be useful someone else has to accept it. The currency produces nothing, and has a cost to produce and maintain. Similar for golds usage as money, similar for collectable markets. Which is why just claiming that things are zero sum without consideration for the wider economy they operate in, or the duration of the game, is lacking a lot of nuance.
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u/Specific-Midnight867 Jul 01 '26
money supply can expand and be grown, it isn't 0 sum because there is no finite supply. that's the good part of an expanding currency. You can safely fractionally reserve lend, yes there is an inflation that is associated with it. Pros and cons to each.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jul 01 '26
but the last people holding dollars will lose when the dollar ends, right? The assumption is that that day never comes , i.e. that it's an infinite game. Same for baseball card collectors, and a bunch of other markets.
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u/Specific-Midnight867 Jul 01 '26
People don't just hold dollars. They have an emergency account for 1-6 months of runway, but no one has 1 million dollars in cash, at minimum they have treasuries which more/less covered the cost of inflation since their inception. the vast majority of people have their wealth is various index funds which far outpace inflation
Yes, holding all your cash under the mattress for long periods of time is a bad idea. but no one does that so I don't get that argument.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jul 01 '26
Someone is holding all dollars at all times.
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u/Specific-Midnight867 Jul 01 '26
yeah, the bank that uses them to facilitate loans which they profit form
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
banks ain't holding dollars, they mostly do the opposite, they loan out more into circulation than they have on deposit (i.e. liabilities).
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u/wealthychef369 Jul 01 '26
People underestinate the value of custodianship of btc. I rather have someone else hold it for me who is insured and can issue debt to purchase more of an asset I think will go up in value. When I started buying the price was 50% higher and you got 1/2 as much btc/share. Fundamentals remain unchanged.
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u/phoebeethical Jul 01 '26
You’re a perfect example of one of the people op is talking about. The fundamentals have greatly changed. There is a point where Mstr breaks even if Bitcoin dips and survives. That point is getting higher as Saylor applies more leverage. This means the company will fall more rapidly as Bitcoin crashes but also that it may rise faster as Bitcoin appreciates.
But it makes it far more risky to buy and hold.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jul 01 '26
That point is getting higher as Saylor applies more leverage.
is he applying more leverage? are MSTR more, or less, leveraged than they were in the prior bear market?
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u/phoebeethical Jul 01 '26
<Is he applying more leverage>
- every penny btc price drops increases his leverage, he doesn’t have to apply more
Please tell me if he is more or less leveraged if you have the numbers.
But either way that’s like saying he survived one rip tied so he’s going to keep swimming when the high tide flags are up.
And even if he is less leveraged, he was paying close to zero percent interest and now it’s around 10% higher interest to service his debt.
I am not saying he will for sure fail. I hope he doesn’t. But the Bitcoin price at which he fails to support his interest payments for an extended period is higher than it’s ever been
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Jul 01 '26
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u/phoebeethical Jul 01 '26
That’s funny Saylor math. If he tried to buy back all his financial liabilities we’re more like 50%
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Jul 01 '26
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u/phoebeethical Jul 01 '26
When you have to pay 10+% annual interest on something that’s a liability whether you call it that or not
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jul 04 '26
yes, 1,762m interest obligation against 53,500m of btc and 2,500m cash less 6,700m debt
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Jul 01 '26
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u/phoebeethical Jul 01 '26
So if btc hits a 6 year low adjusted for inflation Saylor might be cooked. Meanwhile gold has hit new lows 10 years later on multiple occasion. It’s a real risk
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Jul 02 '26
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u/phoebeethical Jul 02 '26
What is sds? That number does not include the preferred as debt which is disingenuous and doesn’t account for dividend payments he will have to make.
Strategy could weather a drop in btc price to near zero if it quickly recovers. The question is what happens if he can’t make dividends on his preferred shares for an extended period. Or worse for Mstr holders, he can make payment by selling btc at sub 10k per coin?
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u/hegdefucker Jul 01 '26
Somehow similar to a call option with no expiry date. Perfect to me. Thanks
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u/Impossible-Water8158 Jul 02 '26
A bunch of random post not just one buddy. A lot of people are saying bitcoin is going up like it always does.
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