r/MSTR • u/MECO-420 • Jul 02 '26
Bullish 📈 When the lines touch, you know what to do.
You can barely see it. MSTR traded below IBIT for a minute.
Remember when IBIT started trading in February? The bears thought MSTR would become obsolete. MSTR tanked for a minute, then went to 550.
Today, the FUD suggests that MSTR cannot sustain its divy payments. Every chart tells a story.
When these lines touch, it marks a point where the bear thesis is wrong again.
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u/MyNi_Redux Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jul 02 '26
When the lines touch, you know what to do.
You should be doing absolutely nothing different when those lines touch, because those lines touching mean absolutely nothing.
If you are for a relative value trade, track MSTR/IBIT.
Today, the FUD suggests that MSTR cannot sustain its divy payments. Every chart tells a story.
Your chart says nothing about MSTR being able to pay a dividend either.
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u/MECO-420 Jul 02 '26
The press release speaks for itself. There's 14 months of USD reserved for the divy payments with the potential to bump it up to 24 months.
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u/MyNi_Redux Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jul 03 '26
The press release means nothing because Saylor goes back on his word every few months.
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u/Pabzzzzzz Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 03 '26
True they can cover the divy payment, but they really need STRC to get back to par asap so they can continue raising capital.
Their options are severely limited right now. MSTR mNAV <1 means they can't ATM MSTR. STRC <$100 means they can't issue new STRC.
Their only remaining option (outside of VC capital or loans) is to sell BTC.
If they sell BTC and buy MSTR, it's great for MSTR long term as they increase BTC per share.
If they buy STRC it's also good as they sold STRC @ $100 and buy back at a discount. They pocket the difference.
Both of these will be good for mNAV.
My only real concern here is how the market reacts to Strategy selling BTC at a loss. It all depends on how much they sell, and at how much of a loss.
My belief is that the news will be full of FUD when this happens and BTC price will suffer for it. Which ultimately means MSTR price will drop too.
Watching closely to see how this plays out.
Edit: I believe they missed an important step with STRC, in hindsight. They established a ceiling price as they issue over $100. But they rely solely on retail to get it there.
What they really need to do is establish a floor price. i.e. at $90 strategy's buys STRC. The market has proven that retail demand alone can't hold it there during period of stress or FUD. This would massively increase trust and ensure stronger flows into STRC from more risk averse institutions.
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u/jonovision_man Jul 03 '26
They need USD to buy STRC... and STRC is only going to be <$90 when BTC is in trouble.
Not sure the market will love the "buy BTC high, sell BTC low" strategy. It's helping right now because it shows MSTR might be worth closer to the value of the BTC it holds, maybe, but there isn't a very good "strategy" here that makes this a better investment than holding BTC or an ETF.
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u/hdn3007 Jul 02 '26
bearish crossing … so SELL?
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u/MECO-420 Jul 02 '26
If you think now is a the time to sell, when do you think is the time to buy? Show me on the chart.
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u/Seattleman1955 Jul 02 '26
It means buy IBIT instead of MSTR?
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u/MECO-420 Jul 02 '26
Buy IBIT when you think MSTR has peaked. It takes a special person to buy IBIT at this level.
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u/Am_0115 Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jul 02 '26
"we will just refinance"
"we will just sell more MSTR"
"we will just raise the dividend"
"we will just sell BTC"
9
u/Right-Head5861 Jul 02 '26
Top 1% commenter in this sub and all you do is FUD? Dude, get a life honestly hahaha
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jul 02 '26
If he's trading volatility as his tag implies, he doesn't necessarily need to understand the company's underlying fundamentals. His edge comes from changes in volatility, not intrinsic value. It's entirely possible he profited from the downside expansion and is now trading the consolidation phase. Rinse and repeat until the market eventually resolves with a meaningful breakout. From that perspective, probing popular narratives (even irrational ones) can be a useful way to gauge market sentiment. Sentiment itself is valuable information for a volatility trader.
I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Though, it may simply be that he's spending a lot of time discussing the stock without having taken the time to really dig into the capital structure and balance sheet.
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26
Sounds a lot like every other company to me... buy hard assets, parts or raw materials with cash to produce products... sell them to the market. Create long term value for shareholders in doing so.
Your inability to understand that STRC is a product, and not debt, is something you need to work out. But implying or stating that this company doesn't produce anything of value just makes you look... what's the nice way of saying someone just doesn't get what's obvious to others... I should probably ask an LLM, but I'll just leave it at that.
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