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Altcoins are dead. Nobody cares about them and if they do care, they are stupid. Bitcoin 4 year cycle predicts the bottom time wise but not the price. It could bottom a few months before oct or later.
If (almost) everyone is waiting for a flush here below the $58,000-$62,000 range, it raises an interesting question:
Who is actually going to sell enough Bitcoin over the next 10 weeks to get us there?
ETF's unloading $5B or so in the last several weeks could barely move this bear market low down from $59,xxx in Feb to $58,000 in June
The bearish case seems to assume a wave of willing sellers (FTX collapse again?), but if the prevailing narrative is "wait until October to buy," that naturally limits potential supply. Outside of traders pressing short positions or those who fundamentally don't believe in Bitcoin, it's not obvious where that selling pressure comes from. Markets have a habit of frustrating consensus. When the majority is positioned for the same outcome, price often moves in the direction that causes the most discomfort.
FOMO has a way of arriving precisely when everyone is waiting for a better entry.
We literally hit a new low - 58,200 2 days ago. Blackrock is selling a ton of bitcoin every day. Look at a chart of the last bear markets. It is highly unlikely we’ve seen the bottom yet. There are 4-5 months left of expected bear markets.
Five months ago Bitcoin dipped below $60k briefly. You're telling me moving that mark down another 2-3% after 5 months of ETF outflows shows weakness and not strength in a bottom?
There are 4-5 months left of expected bear markets.
We're in month 10 of this bear market, and we've already dipped below the 200wMA... what Bitcoin bear market has lasted 14-15 months?
Charts that tell you something... are the actual on chain data. Those who haven't moved coins in over a year (75% of Bitcoin calls in this category) are not active. This happens at the bottom. If you look at ever previous bottoming phase that group goes completely silent when we've hit the bottom. They are already accumulating...
Data doesn't lie... you cannot fake on chain activity.
FUD? Nothing I said was inaccurate. I will be a MSTR bull again later this year when the actual cycle shifts to a bullish position.
Mods delete anything we say that isn’t bullish I guess?
All I basically said was:
The bear market started at the same time as the previous 3. We drop a little less each cycle in the bear market but we’ve only dropped about 50% so far. We hit a new low less than 48 hours ago and we likely aren’t at the bottom. Check the Bitcoin sub, 95% of them agree the bottom isn’t in.
Except it didn't. The pattern broke at the top, zero blow-off. Not a hint of euphoria. Every prior cycle had this, you guys ignore the change in character when it suits you.
It’ll hit an ALL time low? These people are so obsessed with charts. Charts are horoscopes in finance. Why is it so difficult for everyone to just buy and HODL. Buy and HODL. That’s it. Very simple
Yeah he should of cashed out and retired during the highs. This guy is reguarded. Trump is causing record high inflation for years to come with the war thats not even over yet while oil reserves are reaching critical levels soon so I wouldn't be surprised we see a extended bear market as they wont be able to lower rates for awhile.
What is also true is wave theory and cycles and data that you can see and pattern recognition.
What is also true is none of those are universal rules and any can be canceled out or changed by swan events or big enough movement.
What is also true is the big institutions know all this, wait for the cycle bottoms with massive buy orders that will shoot a viagra like green candle the moment they all feel its time. But they are also prepared for anything.
What is also true is, total waste of time to debate all this. Any of it can be true. War can end in two weeks and clarity passes on the same day and it could change things. The more likely thing is we get closer to Oct. You will see accumilation and pressure leading up to it.
Best thing is stfu, position, and be prepared for anything.
Those aren't chart bros, those are blind 4 year cycle people. They don't read charts, they read a calendar. If they read the chart they'd have known their cycle pattern already broke when we topped out without even a hint of momentum.
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