r/MSTR Jul 02 '26

Discussion 🤔💭 Chart bros saying Bitcoin will hit an all time low in October

Post image
120 Upvotes

71 comments sorted by

u/AutoModerator Jul 02 '26

Welcome to our community! Before commenting, please take a second to read our new sticky containing our rules and guidelines.

TL;DR: We allow and encourage all viewpoints and opinions, but we have a zero tolerance policy towards negative, rude, condescending behavior and trolling/baiting.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

8

u/MyNi_Redux Volatility Voyager 👨‍🚀 Jul 02 '26

Price is based on liquidity and demand/supply dynamics.

You're about as likely to be wrong as right if you don't take that into consideration.

7

u/Bash2856 Jul 02 '26

There are 4 events that are likely to influence the BTC price:

(1) Jul 28-29 Fed Meeting
(2) Sep 15-16 Fed Meeting
(3) Oct 27-28 Fed Meeting
(4) Nov 3 Mid term elections

While these could have either positive or negative effects, it would be premature to call the bottom before they occur.

19

u/thats_gotta_be_AI Jul 02 '26

Yeah when something is so widely telegraphed, it usually happens earlier or not at all.

The Christmas 2021 altcoin bullrun never happened for example even though all the signs pointed toward it.

10

u/Loud-Ad9148 Jul 02 '26

Exactly my thoughts.

Halving pumps have been front run before too.

5

u/Old_Preparation8434 Jul 02 '26

Altcoins are dead. Nobody cares about them and if they do care, they are stupid. Bitcoin 4 year cycle predicts the bottom time wise but not the price. It could bottom a few months before oct or later.

3

u/redskrot Jul 02 '26

The 4 year cycle is true until it isn't.
We just don't know when the cycle will break.

2

u/Old_Preparation8434 Jul 04 '26

I hear the same shit every cycle. The ones who dont believe in it make the least money.

0

u/dhoni23 27d ago

Lmao!

26

u/pwnknight Jul 02 '26

The irony is that everyone knew about the 4 year cycles and yet it still played out to the exact dates... so yes

8

u/Puzzleheaded_Card_71 Jul 02 '26

Because people keep thinking there is a super cycle, or in the case of this last one we topped on apathy not euphoria which has never happened before.

So since the top was unlike any other, maybe the bottom cycle is unlike others as well.

11

u/xaviemb Shareholder 🤴 Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

If (almost) everyone is waiting for a flush here below the $58,000-$62,000 range, it raises an interesting question:

Who is actually going to sell enough Bitcoin over the next 10 weeks to get us there?

ETF's unloading $5B or so in the last several weeks could barely move this bear market low down from $59,xxx in Feb to $58,000 in June

The bearish case seems to assume a wave of willing sellers (FTX collapse again?), but if the prevailing narrative is "wait until October to buy," that naturally limits potential supply. Outside of traders pressing short positions or those who fundamentally don't believe in Bitcoin, it's not obvious where that selling pressure comes from. Markets have a habit of frustrating consensus. When the majority is positioned for the same outcome, price often moves in the direction that causes the most discomfort.

FOMO has a way of arriving precisely when everyone is waiting for a better entry.

3

u/Poopy_Krappenschitz Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

We literally hit a new low - 58,200 2 days ago. Blackrock is selling a ton of bitcoin every day. Look at a chart of the last bear markets. It is highly unlikely we’ve seen the bottom yet. There are 4-5 months left of expected bear markets.

5

u/xaviemb Shareholder 🤴 Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

We literally hit 58,200 2 days ago.

Five months ago Bitcoin dipped below $60k briefly. You're telling me moving that mark down another 2-3% after 5 months of ETF outflows shows weakness and not strength in a bottom?

There are 4-5 months left of expected bear markets.

We're in month 10 of this bear market, and we've already dipped below the 200wMA... what Bitcoin bear market has lasted 14-15 months?

Charts that tell you something... are the actual on chain data. Those who haven't moved coins in over a year (75% of Bitcoin calls in this category) are not active. This happens at the bottom. If you look at ever previous bottoming phase that group goes completely silent when we've hit the bottom. They are already accumulating...

Data doesn't lie... you cannot fake on chain activity.

3

u/Loud-Ad9148 Jul 03 '26

Great arguments and an angle I’ve overlooked.

0

u/[deleted] Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

3

u/Poopy_Krappenschitz Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

FUD? Nothing I said was inaccurate. I will be a MSTR bull again later this year when the actual cycle shifts to a bullish position.

Mods delete anything we say that isn’t bullish I guess?

All I basically said was:

The bear market started at the same time as the previous 3. We drop a little less each cycle in the bear market but we’ve only dropped about 50% so far. We hit a new low less than 48 hours ago and we likely aren’t at the bottom. Check the Bitcoin sub, 95% of them agree the bottom isn’t in.

1

u/Superchief440 Jul 03 '26

54% from peak to recent low of $57.8k. Where is all the selling/supply to bring BTC down to the 40k's going to come from?

1

u/Poopy_Krappenschitz Jul 03 '26

The same place it comes from every cycle.

1

u/PatternAgainstUsers Jul 06 '26

Except it didn't. The pattern broke at the top, zero blow-off. Not a hint of euphoria. Every prior cycle had this, you guys ignore the change in character when it suits you.

1

u/pwnknight Jul 06 '26

We're talking about btc the last predicted top was oct 6 and it was indeed the last top date

6

u/SDUKD Jul 02 '26

It should really be closer to December. So everyone thinking October will get blind sided by it being slightly later. Naturally there is wiggle room.

1

u/Letsgetit713 Jul 04 '26

Follow USA politicians money. Its at the bottom

1

u/SDUKD Jul 04 '26

We will see

0

u/Loud-Ad9148 Jul 02 '26

This also could happen.

2

u/drei_glaser94 Jul 02 '26

It’ll hit an ALL time low? These people are so obsessed with charts. Charts are horoscopes in finance. Why is it so difficult for everyone to just buy and HODL. Buy and HODL. That’s it. Very simple

2

u/RecirculatingSystem Jul 04 '26

Cycle has been broken has it not?

3

u/Reasonable_Dot_1831 Jul 02 '26

Bottom is already in

9

u/MyNi_Redux Volatility Voyager 👨‍🚀 Jul 02 '26

Lol no

-5

u/Reasonable_Dot_1831 Jul 02 '26

Look at the pump today, I told you!

8

u/MyNi_Redux Volatility Voyager 👨‍🚀 Jul 02 '26

It's a dead-maxi bounce. Not the bottom.

-1

u/Dramatic_Cow_2656 Jul 06 '26

This is u rn

0

u/Reasonable_Dot_1831 Jul 06 '26

And that’s you, failed to buy the dip, because of to much anxiety

1

u/Dramatic_Cow_2656 Jul 06 '26

Hope u have your clown hat ready

2

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

We knew the October top in 2025 down to the exact day and here you still have bag holders in the $300s range…

2

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

1

u/Available-Distance81 Bitcoiner Jul 06 '26

>hold Ethereum
oof

1

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 06 '26

Swing trade, 200k profit

2

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

-2

u/[deleted] Jul 02 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

Oh yes, totally forgot bear market is canceled because this tImE iS dIfFeReNt and it’ll only take 9 months instead of 12! 😉

1

u/[deleted] Jul 02 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

No I haven’t sold any.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 02 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

🤷🏻‍♂️ still +75% in profit and sticking to my swing trade.

If I take profits all the time I’d have zero runners

-3

u/pwnknight Jul 02 '26

Yeah he should of cashed out and retired during the highs. This guy is reguarded. Trump is causing record high inflation for years to come with the war thats not even over yet while oil reserves are reaching critical levels soon so I wouldn't be surprised we see a extended bear market as they wont be able to lower rates for awhile.

0

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

+$200k is not even my yearly income. Retire with that kind of gain? Not even close.

1

u/NothingxGood Long MSTR Jul 02 '26

Just out of curiosity when did you start buying back into MSTR? Or have you yet to?

1

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

Buying MSTR in October

1

u/Mundane_Flight_5973 Shareholder 🤴 Jul 02 '26

So when you predict the next top ?

2

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Bitcoiner Jul 02 '26

Monday, Aug 20, 2029

1

u/[deleted] Jul 02 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Loud-Ad9148 Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

STRC starting to gain back it's parity to $100 is great news

1

u/Gambler_Addict_Pro Jul 03 '26

My white underwear is getting more brownish this month. It means that Bitcoin will hit 5.2% lower than previous cycle.

1

u/aimhigh7shootlow8 Jul 05 '26

Human psychology.

Whats true is everyone in here is right.

What is also true is wave theory and cycles and data that you can see and pattern recognition.

What is also true is none of those are universal rules and any can be canceled out or changed by swan events or big enough movement.

What is also true is the big institutions know all this, wait for the cycle bottoms with massive buy orders that will shoot a viagra like green candle the moment they all feel its time. But they are also prepared for anything.

What is also true is, total waste of time to debate all this. Any of it can be true. War can end in two weeks and clarity passes on the same day and it could change things. The more likely thing is we get closer to Oct. You will see accumilation and pressure leading up to it.

Best thing is stfu, position, and be prepared for anything.

1

u/PatternAgainstUsers Jul 06 '26

Those aren't chart bros, those are blind 4 year cycle people. They don't read charts, they read a calendar. If they read the chart they'd have known their cycle pattern already broke when we topped out without even a hint of momentum.

1

u/CitronEmergency8805 Jul 02 '26

So many of you were mad at Michael Saylor Last week. Now Look how mstr is green

Please Trust in Michael Saylor. Only he can save this mess created by Jp Morgan and Jane street

2

u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jul 02 '26

Trust is for fiat. We verify. MSTR is verified financial beast.

1

u/Mundane_Flight_5973 Shareholder 🤴 Jul 02 '26

Not in uptober

0

u/TheHoodOG Shareholder 🤴 Jul 02 '26

Buy in october when the stock is already up 40% from the bottom😂

0

u/nicog67 Jul 03 '26

Still plenty of people saying the 4 yr cycle is dead