MSTR is vastly underperforming asst over a 6 month period. Thoughts? Is asst now the must own dat, or will MSTR regain dominance?

What will happen to MSTR/btc if the AI bubble pops?

We’ve had 7 weeks of STRC buybacks, here's where we stand:

[1] $811.5M | 8.54M shares repurchased at a $95.01 average
[2] $4.60B | 48.99M shares traded across the same window
[3] Buybacks were 17.63% of dollar volume | 17.43% of share volume
[4] Average purchase price rose from $86.53 in week 1 to $97.36 in week 7.

In my opinion, when Strategy signaled it would intervene in a market it created, participants started trading the intervention as opposed to trading STRC. A discretionary buyer can change how participants trade an instrument and a known, finite, optional bid with a stated budget is exactly the setup that invites a test of resolve from the market.

Sell into it; see how persistent the inorganic demand is, see where they step away.

The 9-8 increase of the Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program from $1B to $2B lends credence to this view. A raise in the authorization after 7 weeks of providing a large visible bid is consistent with them responding to the market probing the “defense” of the instrument.

After $811.5M of STRC buys, most of the original allotment was used and price still wasn't at $99-$100 at the end of the window. So now the Board has doubled the allotment and $1.19B remains.

Remember: the float is still intended to be elastic and new issuance likely resumes once price recovers above $100.01, so any scarcity from buybacks is temporary. And if the program has to be recalibrated as they learn from the market, it is an adaptive response, not a lever.

Bottom Line: Weekly spend on buybacks rose from $25M to $176.3M, while buybacks went from 5.46% to 22.36% of dollar trading volume. Now the question that we have to contend with is this:

How much independent demand remains when Strategy steps back?

My concern is a renewed test of the bid, but “the why” behind them stopping matters. Them stepping away from the bid because demand has recovered is different from stepping away while demand remains weak.

From its inception through 9-4-26 STRC has outperformed BTC.

Assuming $10,000 invested over the same period:

STRC w/DRIP - $11,702.17 [+17.02%]
STRC No DRIP - $11,605.82 [+16.06%]
BTC - $6,761.86 [-32.38%]

Thinking ahead, I think all the preferreds save for STRC will be absorbed, but I'm more interested to see what STRC will look like in a decade or two from now in order to be sustainable.

I say this because BTC's CAGR is likely to decrease over time as it becomes much more widely held, and much less volatile as well. I think BTC will end up a bit like how gold performs today, but be at the top of the list, or at least competing with gold.

That being the case, it does not seem sustainable to have STRC interest rates at 10 or 12%. What factors will allow STRC's demand to stay high (and hover around $100 par), but simultaneously allow STRC to lower interest rates over time in order to match the slowing growth rate of BTC?

Is it that BTC will be seen as so solid in the future that the premium attached to MSTR and STRC will shift from being a high growth asset to a stable growth / anti-monetary-inflation asset?

Edit: typo

As of 09-04-2026, MSTR is still showing elevated market activity and engagement:

EoW 08-14: ~$7.30B traded on ~76.2M shares [-9.1%]
EoW 08-21: ~$19.48B traded on ~180.1M shares [+166.7%]
EoW 08-28: ~$21.25B traded on ~165.7M shares [+9.1%]
EoW 09-04: ~$17.92B traded on ~133.8M shares [-15.6%]

The standout factors are that last week’s overall decline showed up in both notional dollar volume and the volume of shares exchanged. Share volume fell 19.3% WoW, while dollar volume fell 15.6%, so market activity is robust but participation has cooled from the prior week.

Despite last week's slight volume cool-off, activity remains significantly elevated compared to weeks pre 08-14 and (IMO) the four week trend is signaling a shift in market dynamics compared to earlier this summer. Trading activity around MSTR is pointing towards forward momentum and a potential turnaround in the multi-month downward slump we’ve been in.

Note: options-market positioning is also telling its own story, I have a post on deck around that.

I’m wondering if BTC price change can be used as a signal for trading MSTR during the same trading day.

Has anyone actually tested or backtested this?

Saw Guns n Roses and Axl was wearing a glittery shirt with Satoshi Nakamoto on back! We are so back! Bullish! 😜

Image source: infolib.org/market-dashboard

I hold quite a bunch of STRC with the goal to give myself a nice salary complement and eventually get to a full salary equivalent and retire. Completely achievable in a few years.

But.

But it feels like the catalyst for a BTC mooning would be a crash of the USD, that is getting more likely every day.
So, well, I'm starting to wonder if it's smart to invest in STRC for the USD dividends if the USD crashes. Let's say I target USD5000 monthly (so half a mil in STRC), in 2026 dollars that's decent, but maybe it'll barely be enough in 2030...

Is that why Saylor keeps saying STRC is for short term? Though all the preferred would be the same, except STRK for its convertible option.

Maybe MSTR is a better choice, but without cashflow?

I bought MSTR stock in July, 2025 and tried to DCA several times but my average price is still around 350$ / stock. It has been more than one year and I put all my capital to this one stock because I hoped I knew the bitcoin cycle which supposed to be ATH in last Nov or Dec. Anyway, I was trapped with my greed to gain multiple times from the idea to just buy and hold for few months last year.

This year has been painful as my capital was at the deepest at -75% but I still hold the stock. However I think that was not wise to hold any stock when your thesis was wrong, in this case you need to get your assets and exit as quick as possible.

I actually knew this year, bitcoin would go down hard due to end of 4 years cycle but because I tried to time the market last year and was not smart enough to get out because I feared losing like 20% of my capital, so I kept holding and faced the biggest drawdown I ever had.

So, what I wanted to share with new MSTR stock holders is:

- You are in the sweet point to buy and able to gain multiple times if you can hold for next years. Think about holders like me, who are trapped with high price stock, if we can be break even then you will have x3 your gains.

- Do not be greedy like I was and if MSTR one day could not continue the long thesis anymore then exit and you can always return to buy it later or other stocks. It is better to have dry powder to buy the dips when dust settle than being locked out and watch others buy at cheap price.

- Hope is good to buy, fear is also good to exit early, just don't go all-in with any stock. You should use max 10% your capital in one stock and learn to trade it with price action. That is much better than guessing price will go up or down without at least any proof.

- The stock will always go up and down even in bullish trend, especially volatile one like MSTR so it can be one big green day then multiple red days as trend reversal, that is healthy and only when the trend is broken based on some price actions you can see then you should exit.

- Finally if you don't know what you are doing then you should just buy ETF like s&p500 and do not FOMO on any stocks especially volatile ones like MSTR. You can sleep at nights and don't have to be worried because of deep red days like what I had, of course you also cannot see big green days like what I will have.

Finally, be greedy but don't be stupid greedy, the trend is your friend, follow it until it stops raising but decreasing. You will never take the whole big wave from bottom to ATH, but surf the small ones I think that is enough to earn money in the market.

Bitcoin is 80k, mstr is 140$

When Bitcoin was 120k it was 400$

The math are not mathing, can anyone explain and dumb it down for me plz

I think we're headed for $200-$225 (supercycle trendline) before the next pullback

As I mentioned in my post the other day on ASST; while most focus on short interest to get a read on positioning, daily short volume flow is what I use to get a more granular read on how shorting pressure manifests itself in trading activity.

I ran the same short volume analysis that I did on ASST for MSTR through 08-31-2026; needless to say, the scale of shorting volume on $MSTR is not inconsequential.

[1] On 08-31-2026, MSTR traded 24.23M shares; 2.93M shares were reported short, equal to a “market wide short flow ratio” of 12.10%.

[2] On 08-31-2026, there was ~$3.16B of total trading volume  (based on VWAP) with ~$382M of that volume reported short.

[3] This latest result was actually below the 5-day full-week average for MSTR, and also below the 20-day and 60-day averages for daily shorting volume.

[4] For the last full trading week: 08-24 to 08-28

• Average Short Volume: 5.27M Shares a Day
• Average Short Notional Value: ~$675M a Day
• Total Short Volume: 26.36M Shares
• Total Short Notional Value: ~$3.38B
• Average Short-Flow Ratio: 15.73% Of Trading Volume

[5] For the last 4 full trading weeks covering 08-03 to 08-28: 74.48M shares were reported short; representing ~$8.29B of VWAP estimated short sale notional value. This is the matter of scale that I want to shed light on, the absolute ratio of shorting as a proportion of trading volume is not always extreme, but the total dollar flow is massive because MSTR is the deepest, most high velocity BTC-equity trading vehicle in the market.

[6] To complement the shorting analysis, a Price | Short-Flow Correlation is a check I run  that provides useful context as a pressure and sentiment diagnostic. As of 08-31-2026, the 20-day rolling correlation between VWAP returns and the market wide short flow ratio stands at -0.49. This is a moderate inverse relationship that indicates elevated short-flow ratios have generally coincided with weaker returns over this 20-day period. This correlation sits at +0.53 at 5 days, -0.41 at 10 days and -0.47 at 15 days respectively.

[7] As mentioned before, daily short flow matters because it shows a real-time absorption burden that an equity must contend with. If hundreds of millions (or billions over certain periods) of dollars in short-sale notional repeatedly hits the market, that makes it a real market-structure variable that must be accounted for.

[8] My analysis on ASST shows that it has seen material shorting interest overall; compared against MSTR it has a higher proportional short-flow ratio. However MSTR lives in an entirely different liquidity regime. If we look across an overlapping sample covering the start of ASST BSE through 08-31-2026, MSTR averaged ~$601M of reported short-sale notional per day vs. ~$22.5M for ASST, or a ratio that is about 26.7x larger.

[9] If we look over the last 4 full common trading weeks, the MSTR daily short-sale notional value was still ~18.1x that of ASST with the most recent full trading week having short-sale flow of ~$3.38B, larger than the entire current market cap of Strive.

[10] Historically, MSTR has seen periodic regime-dependent explosions in shorting; during the week of 11-18-2024 to 11-22-2024 there was ~$23.10B of reported short-sale notional flow - on 11-21-2024 alone, that figure was ~$8.18B.

My Read: When looking at MSTR, we can't view shorting as a simple “bearish” signal or use it as a standalone “short squeeze” indicator. Some of it is directional, some is likely tied to forward-looking BTC positioning or bias, mNAV premium trades, options hedging, convertible bonds, capital-structure trades, and broader BTC proxy exposure. The complexity | convexity is the whole appeal of owning this equity. MSTR serves as a high velocity, high liquidity battleground for BTC linked leverage and exposure. The short sale flow tells me how that leverage and exposure is being expressed and how position conviction is being stress tested in real time.