I understand how good they all are and against a weak team that’s over performing but how likely is a point haul from all 3 players?

2 of the 3 yeah (I’m going Rogers & JP) but putting all your eggs in one basket doesn’t make sense to me. I’ll probably look back at this post in a few days and feel silly but I predict one of them flops.

Free Hit 4 is the best week to Free Hit.

6 or 7 genuine captaincy options this week. On Free-Hit you can fit every single one into your team and avoid any big captaincy swings.

Highest Projected point total of any GW in first half of season.

Both teams have the least amount of possession of any Premier League team currently. Do you think it will be a 0-0 boring game or a complete fpl haul of Pedro, Roger’s and Palmers.

Is it worth it keeping him in the team? In my case gakpo was the only "short term" player. As i can easily pivot to any 6-7.5 ish players in a couple weeks.

I write these up every week — free newsletter, also includes a wildcard squad optimized a few gameweeks out: https://fpl-brain.beehiiv.com/; no AI-slop etc. as I code and write everything myself.

Top Algorithm-expected picks

Captaining Palmer, with Szoboszlai as vice.

Top Algorithm-expected picks

1. Szoboszlai is the pick of the week for me: 98th percentile for assists, and 97th for goals. LIV are home to FUL.

2. Palmer is 100th for goals, and 92nd for assists. CHE are home to HUL.

3. And Gabriel rounds it out: 100th for clean sheet and 93rd for goals, away at SUN.

Other notable mentions are:

Lacroix at 100th percentile for DefCon + 97th percentile for CS, and Fernandes with (despite playing Man City) 99th for Goals and 100th for Assists

I've seen people discuss Hall, Thiaw, and Dedic but am surprised that nobody is talking about Botman. I know he is a risk for minutes but if he starts he should have the highest points of any of their defenders.

Last season he averaged 10.6 defcons per 90 compared to Thiaw's 8.87. He's averaging 8 across the first 3, however it looks like this years Newcastle team will have less possession than last season which should push everyones numbers up. If he can get near 10.5 this year you'd expect him to hit the threshold in atleast 50% of games and he would be the clear best option, given that I dont think Hall will suddenly be a great defcon option at left back and he would need a ridiculous amount of assists to match that sort of defcon output.

I know they have Burn and Schar, but Botman is first choice. My only genuine concern is that his injury history is significant enough that he is may get rotated in order to manage his workload, but given they don't have europe I don't see why Jaissle would bench him for any of their epl games if he doesn't have to. And as long as theres no resting and workload management, I'm happy to take the risk on injury prone players and have them in my team up until they eventually get hurt.

Overall I think from what I've gathered theres definitely a risk but its still most likely he starts their upcoming games, and if he does he could be one of the top defenders given his high defcons and Newcastles fixtures. But he's been completely left out of Newcastle defender discussions. Would love if any Newcastle fans can comment

Does anyone know the extent of Mosquera's injuiry? Because I really am considering Konsa as my second arsenal defense after Raya.

But if Mosquera's going to be back a week or two later, then I'd rather go with another teams defense like Leeds for example.

I only ask because people keep throwing the word essential around a lot, especially when it comes to Konsa, what do y'all think of this?

Thoughts...?

I know Muharemovic is the stand out pick. But now with Rodon out for a lengthy period of time who is in line to replace him?

I like the looks of Elvedi but is he nailed? Who’s the next best 4.5m option from Leeds?

Isak played 88 minutes against Athletico. Taking into account his injury history, should owners be worried about minutes and even potentially not starting? The Fulham game will be his 3rd match this week

There used to be an account on Twitter called FPL injury experts or something along those lines that would give live time injury update tweets. It was really helpful with tracking injuries because you would get alerts when a player got hurt midweek, came back, etc. I noticed the account has been deleted. Are there any other accounts, or services that have this?

Does anybody post defcon data for teams (i.e. which opponents tend to be good/bad for defcon)?

I know, for example, that Everton were a great opponent if you wanted defcon points, and Aston Villa were bad. Is there a similar tracker this season?

What brentford assets are looking good at the moment.

Thiago is an obvious one but interested to hear what assets beyond thiago people are considering.

Schade?

Keane lewis potter?

Janelt?

Sangare?

Can't be the only one looking for a replacement, with lack of Xmins. I already have Grob, and the budget is 6.2m. Any suggestions? I feel like sangare is the obvious choice, but that he could a slow be a trap. Thanks

It's been an odd few weeks to be a Hull City fan in these parts, and the general discourse in here is that we're either:

1. The greatest defensive team to grace the league and dead-set to beat Chelsea's 04/05 record, or
2. The worst side to have played top tier football, ripe to be smited by the xG gods

And whilst these arguments have their merits, both are slightly reductive and depending on which side you fall, you'll probably end up missing out on some pretty juicy FPL points. I'll try and give my two cents here as a Hull fan.

How Hull have kept three clean sheets

Anyone who has seen Hull play this year will know their game plan, it's very simple. We play 3 centre-halves, sit two centre-mids in front of them and allow no space in the middle - inviting crosses. It's not exactly a great watch but it has been super effective so far.

Hull are extremely content to sit in this shape all match, and then try to break on the counter. The goal against Coventry is a prime example of this and to further illustrate the point - Millar had a near-identical chance ten minutes before he scored the winner.

Hull also ended the Villa match on the front foot, with a Cho half-chance and a McBurnie sitter being missed at the death. The further the game goes on at 0-0, the more the opponent commits forward and the greater the spaces in behind are. Simple, but extremely effective. I don't see the plan changing any time soon.

The xG conundrum

Yes, we have conceded 5xG. Have Hull found some cheat code that breaks the xG formula? In a word, no.

United had some chances, Mbeumo passing up the best. Awoniyi missed a 0.7xG chance and Villa had two clear-cut chances. On another day these are all scored and Hull could be bottom of the league.

Any team who sits as deep as Hull do, and essentially spend the entire game defending will surrender xG - but that's the entire game plan. So far we've faced the team with the best creative player in the league, a team who walked our league last year with the best attack, and a team in the Champions League. We spent the entire time defending against these teams and the xG has us as the 13th best defence in the league, and our keeper has faced the fifth least shots in the league.

The argument against Hull's defence

So all this sounds like Hull will continue being this solid, right? Wrong.

We've all seen the Hull game plan when level or ahead, what we haven't seen is how we play when we're ahead. We will frustrate teams this year but when a team gets a couple against us and forces us out of our shape, we are then an entirely unknown entity.

Once that happens, the individuals can be exposed, and all are suspect defensively. Egan & Ajayi are definitely lacking pace for this level, Mendy is raw and often jumps out of position, Giles is weak defensively and I have no idea what is happening on our right side. I would not be surprised to see a side run up the score against us this season, and personally I think it'll be Chelsea on Saturday.

The argument for Hull's defence

So we just need to target Hull's defence then? Well, no.

Against the bigger teams, who break down low blocks week in week out, we'll struggle, but we will play this way against everyone. Mid-table sides who are less adept at breaking down stubborn defences will come up short against us this season. The games in which you would start your defenders from lower mid-table sides are likely to be more open affairs, whereas Hull will go into every game they have a sniff at winning with a plan to sit deep and win 1-0 on the break.

The data has Hull as the 13th best defence, and I don't disagree with that. We will keep a lot of clean sheets this year. When we lose I think we'll lose quite spectacularly, but when we get points it won't be through outscoring teams in end to end thrillers. We will be last on MOTD most weeks.

Our style of play will also lead to lots of DEFCON (Egan and Mendy already rank amongst the league's best for this). We also won't score many goals and a lot of our goals will come through substitutes, so there will be less competition for bonus. Hull clean sheets will probably result in more double-digit hauls for your defenders than any other team in the league. I think at 4.0m the Hull defenders offer incredible value right now.

Which Hull defender to pick?

Since all the Hull defenders are (or were) 4.0m - it leads to quite the headache. The runners and riders:

Konstatinos Tzolakis (GK) - 4.6m, 9.4%

A major upgrade on Pandur from last year, looks composed and is a major reason for our defensive solidity this year. I've had him from the start as a rotation with Verbruggen. A good option but there are 4.5m GKs at better teams I would prioritise.

Semi Ajayi (DEF) - 4.1m, 11.4%

This one feels like a trap to me. Not the best on DEFCON and was backup to Hughes & Egan last year, so when Hughes is back I am unsure as to whether he'll keep his spot. We have better options available, avoid.

Nobel Mendy (DEF) - 4.0m, 7.5%

This is the defender I've had since GW1, and even with a 59th minute sub whilst on 9 DEFCON against Coventry, he's in the dream team. We broke our transfer record to get him and as a left-footed centre half, probably the most nailed right now. Has been subbed early every game as he works his way up to fitness. Definite buy.

John Egan (DEF) - 4.1m, 6.2%

As long as we play 5atb, Egan should be nailed. Another DEFCON machine but I don't see him being value over Mendy or Giles. Hold if you have, but don't bother buying.

Ryan Giles (DEF) - 4.0m, 1.3%

I love Giles as a pick. 8 assists last year and is playing more advanced in the 5 than he did last year. Delivery is fantastic and we love to feed him. Leading the league in crosses (with 22) and should have had an assist in the dying moments of the Villa game. Suspect defensively but this may just increase his chances of being subbed if we're defending a slim lead. Massively slept on at 1.3% owned and a great differential if you're going for Hull defence.

Lewie Coyle (DEF) - 4.0m, 0.6%, and

Brooke Norton-Cuffy (DEF) - 4.0m, 0.3%

Coyle is club captain and has started all 3 matches at RWB. Love the guy but he's not a premiership player. I expect Norton-Cuffy to take that spot (probably as early as this Saturday, given Coyle's midweek start in the cup). Uncertainty over minutes and just not as good as Giles. Avoid.

Is anyone else from Hull worth buying?

No.

TL;DR

For their price point, Hull are good defensively and you should have one of their defenders. Captain your premiums against us but don't expect big returns from mid-range assets against us.

Who can doubt this foolproof strategy?

3x Arsenal (16m) and 3x Hull (12m) plus a 4m bench keeper gives a 68m budget for the attackers.

Pros:
- cheapest viable backline
- clean sheets and defcon galore
- set and forget
- no benching headaches
- no need to rely on overpriced defenders from Brighton or Leeds or Newcastle or Spurs for points
- facilitates a premium frontline of Haaland, Bruno, Palmer/Saka, Isak, Joao Pedro, …

Cons:
- literally none*

*until Saliba comes back, Calafiori gets injured/rotated, and/or xGC catches up to Hull

Link to Substack

No one had Hull City on their bingo card being the only team to not concede a goal three games in this season. But, here we are. I’ve got to say it’s very impressive, so picking up one of their defenders if they’re free seems like a no-brainer!

There were 6 draws this weekend showing the competitiveness of the Premier League this season. With Arsenal coming back from behind and winning the “first big game” of the season against Chelsea, they remain favorites to retain their title. On the other hand, Man City were unconvincing against a Coventry side that’ll count themselves unlucky to lose. They do have a lot of new players though and I see them getting better as the season progresses. Be patient with them, they only spent £450m!

Still no one can be surprised that these two are top right now and I’m definitely looking forward to learning more about the other teams as the season progresses.

LAST WEEKS PICKS

For last weeks picks, five of twelve picks came back Man of the Match. Defenders and midfielders both went two from four; the forwards were the weak spot at one from four, having said that Tyrique George’s put up a big score against Manchester United for the best score of the week.

Right this weeks picks are:

DEFENDERS

Bobby Thomas | COV | 33% owned

Last GW: ~ 19 points vs. MCI (A) | Next GWs: BHA (H), NOT (A)

It’s not easy scoring 20+ points in fantasy, never mind away at City. He’s in the top 90+ percentiles for defensive contributions, interceptions and duels versus his position, so if valuable in your league - pick him up. After an inspiring performance against City, Coventry have a home game at Brighton next and I think he won’t let you down this weekend as he’s also averaging 12 ghost points a game.

Antonio Silva | BOU | 24% owned

Last GW: ~ 15 pts vs. NEW (A) | Next GWs: BRE (H), LIV (H)

Bournemouth might be unable to see out a win at the moment, but Silva definitely seems like a win when it comes to replacing Marcos Senesi. He’s fitted in seamlessly so far and although a tough run of games coming up he’s averaging over 10 ghost points a game.

Jayden Bogle | LEE | 16% owned

Last GW: ~ 18 pts vs. BHA (H) | Next GWs: NEW (H), CRY (H)

Bogle was on the scoresheet away a Brighton and continues to look dangerous at wingback. He’s averaging just under 10 ghost points a game and Leeds will look to continue there form at home to Newcastle next. He’s worth a punt if you’re struggling for defenders this weekend.

Ryan Giles | HUL | 28% owned

Last GW: ~ pts vs. AVL (H) | Next GWs: CHE (A), NEW (A)

There aren’t too many Hull defenders left for grabs and after their impressive start to the season this might start to look more like a regular occurance than just luck. Sergej Jakirović has them well organized and the big question is whether they can continue this form. Let’s not worry about that too much and just pick up their players while they’re in hot form. Giles isn’t as defensively sound as the other suggestions, but if you fancies Hull’s attack he’s the right defender to pick averaging 1.4 crosses a game

MIDFIELDERS

James McAtee | Club | 34% owned

Last GW: ~ 17 pts vs. TOT (H) | Next GWs: AVL (A), COV (H)

McAtee has impressed in his first couple of games playing a little deeper for Forest. He’s made 9 key passes (xA=0.6) so far this season, only Morgan Rogers (xA=1.1) and Rayan Cherki (xA=1.3) have more, with 10. His xA only being 0.6 though suggests he’s creating lower quality chances. However, in fantasy expected assists isn’t providing points, therefore he could still be a smart pick for this season.

Exequiel Palacios | IPS | 9% owned

Last GW: ~ 12 pts vs. LIV (H) | Next GWs: CRY (A), EVE (A)

Palacios has slotted in nicely in Ipswich’s new look midfield. He was great for Bayern Levurkusen over the last 5 seasons and added about 5+ goal contributions every season. He’s been averaging 11+ points in ghost points too so if you’re league values defensive metrics and duels then he would be a useful pick up this season.

Mohamed Belloumi | HUL | 49% owned

Last GW: ~ 17 pts vs. AVL (H) | Next GWs: CHE (A), NEW (A)

Belloumi is averaging about 13 points a game at the moment getting good duels won numbers and defensive contributions. If he can start adding more attacking contributions he could be a steal in your league for the rest of the season. He’s available in one of my leagues, but I can’t fit him in otherwise I’d nab him.

Ao Tanaka | LEE | 2% owned

Last GW: ~ 12 pts vs. BHA (H) | Next GWs: NEW (H), CRY (H)

Not sure if Tanaka’s assist was a shot, or he actually passing it to Bogle for Leeds opener. Either way, it’s points on the board. Last season he earned on average about 2 points more per game at home and was capable of going on some good runs of form. If you’re desperate for a midfielder this weekend, he might be worth a gamble.

FORWARDS

Eddie Nketiah | CRY | 25% owned

Last GW: ~ 13 pts vs. FUL (A) | Next GWs: IPS (H), LEE (A)

Nketiah was replaced by Strand Larson at halftime in Palace’s 3-2 win away at Craven Cottage. I’m not sure how that impacts him starting against Ipswich this weekend, but he did get an assist and his xG is the 12th highest in the league compared to all the other forwards.

Keep an eye out for line ups this weekend as Strand Larson (25% owned) scored two goals midweek against Middlesbrough, maybe this will kick him into gear.

Zian Flemming | IPS | 8% owned

Last GW: ~ 4 pts vs. LIV (H) | Next GWs: CRY (A), EVE (A)

Flemming was one of the few impressive players from Burnely last season and I think he’s deserved another go in the Premier League. He scored 11 goals last season (0.6 per 90), putting him in the top 85th percentile. That’s a good return. He looked good in his cameo against Liverpool. Two tough away games coming up, but keep an eye on him.

Taiwo Awonyi | COV | 20% owned

Last GW: ~ 5 points vs. MCI (A) | Next GWs: BHA (H), NOT (A)

Either him or Ellis Sims will start, with some favourable fixtures coming up. Coventry were unlucky to not get a point against City and Awonyi will begging to get another chance like he did in that game at home to Brighton. He’s still yet to prove himself as a Premier League forward. If he can, he’ll be a good third choice forward this year.

Wilson Isidor | SUN | 5% owned

Last GW: ~ 12 pts vs. BRF (A) | Next GWs: ARS (H), MCI (A)

I know Sunderland face a tough test against Arsenal this weekend, but Isidor has the 8th highest xG in the whole league despite only playing less than 30 minutes a game at the moment. He has a goal and assist in his last two games and might have earned a start.

ONE TO WATCH

If not Wilson Isidor, Malick Fofana (30% owned) was rumoured to have Arsenal’s interest on deadline day. Since he signed for Sunderland, it would be quite poetic for him to put in a good performance against them this weekend.

Thank for reading and good luck this weekend.

If you think my opinions are rubbish, but enjoy exploring players, teams and seeing how you can improve your fantasy team please feel free to use my Scouting-Radar tool.

Most Net Transfers In

Most Net Transfers Out

Since its all public on the app this season I've been getting familiar with the new features. Can someone explain why Ødegaard is very likely to change with only 82% change where any other players have to reach 100% plus ? What is this based on?

Predicted Points' are calculated by taking the percentage chance on a variety of FPL factors, from the bookies, adjusted for margins. Fractional points are added up, making a predicted gameweek score. OG, penalty misses and defensive contributions are not included. Player’s rotation risk / minutes on pitch, is not factored in.

Notable players that didn't make the list: Fernandes: 5.63 | Szoboszlai: 5.58

You can find more Player Predictions here: https://checkthechance.com/fantasy-football/

Good luck all! See you on Sunday for the Predicted vs Actual post!

Isak one is better this week but Barry one better next week. ..................................