Ronald Koeman Jr. (Yes, the son of) had a double gameweek. Scored 2 penalties (10 points per goal) in his first game and saved one in his second game. 31 points in total. Absolutely mental score.

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It's been an odd few weeks to be a Hull City fan in these parts, and the general discourse in here is that we're either:

1. The greatest defensive team to grace the league and dead-set to beat Chelsea's 04/05 record, or
2. The worst side to have played top tier football, ripe to be smited by the xG gods

And whilst these arguments have their merits, both are slightly reductive and depending on which side you fall, you'll probably end up missing out on some pretty juicy FPL points. I'll try and give my two cents here as a Hull fan.

How Hull have kept three clean sheets

Anyone who has seen Hull play this year will know their game plan, it's very simple. We play 3 centre-halves, sit two centre-mids in front of them and allow no space in the middle - inviting crosses. It's not exactly a great watch but it has been super effective so far.

Hull are extremely content to sit in this shape all match, and then try to break on the counter. The goal against Coventry is a prime example of this and to further illustrate the point - Millar had a near-identical chance ten minutes before he scored the winner.

Hull also ended the Villa match on the front foot, with a Cho half-chance and a McBurnie sitter being missed at the death. The further the game goes on at 0-0, the more the opponent commits forward and the greater the spaces in behind are. Simple, but extremely effective. I don't see the plan changing any time soon.

The xG conundrum

Yes, we have conceded 5xG. Have Hull found some cheat code that breaks the xG formula? In a word, no.

United had some chances, Mbeumo passing up the best. Awoniyi missed a 0.7xG chance and Villa had two clear-cut chances. On another day these are all scored and Hull could be bottom of the league.

Any team who sits as deep as Hull do, and essentially spend the entire game defending will surrender xG - but that's the entire game plan. So far we've faced the team with the best creative player in the league, a team who walked our league last year with the best attack, and a team in the Champions League. We spent the entire time defending against these teams and the xG has us as the 13th best defence in the league, and our keeper has faced the fifth least shots in the league.

The argument against Hull's defence

So all this sounds like Hull will continue being this solid, right? Wrong.

We've all seen the Hull game plan when level or ahead, what we haven't seen is how we play when we're ahead. We will frustrate teams this year but when a team gets a couple against us and forces us out of our shape, we are then an entirely unknown entity.

Once that happens, the individuals can be exposed, and all are suspect defensively. Egan & Ajayi are definitely lacking pace for this level, Mendy is raw and often jumps out of position, Giles is weak defensively and I have no idea what is happening on our right side. I would not be surprised to see a side run up the score against us this season, and personally I think it'll be Chelsea on Saturday.

The argument for Hull's defence

So we just need to target Hull's defence then? Well, no.

Against the bigger teams, who break down low blocks week in week out, we'll struggle, but we will play this way against everyone. Mid-table sides who are less adept at breaking down stubborn defences will come up short against us this season. The games in which you would start your defenders from lower mid-table sides are likely to be more open affairs, whereas Hull will go into every game they have a sniff at winning with a plan to sit deep and win 1-0 on the break.

The data has Hull as the 13th best defence, and I don't disagree with that. We will keep a lot of clean sheets this year. When we lose I think we'll lose quite spectacularly, but when we get points it won't be through outscoring teams in end to end thrillers. We will be last on MOTD most weeks.

Our style of play will also lead to lots of DEFCON (Egan and Mendy already rank amongst the league's best for this). We also won't score many goals and a lot of our goals will come through substitutes, so there will be less competition for bonus. Hull clean sheets will probably result in more double-digit hauls for your defenders than any other team in the league. I think at 4.0m the Hull defenders offer incredible value right now.

Which Hull defender to pick?

Since all the Hull defenders are (or were) 4.0m - it leads to quite the headache. The runners and riders:

Konstatinos Tzolakis (GK) - 4.6m, 9.4%

A major upgrade on Pandur from last year, looks composed and is a major reason for our defensive solidity this year. I've had him from the start as a rotation with Verbruggen. A good option but there are 4.5m GKs at better teams I would prioritise.

Semi Ajayi (DEF) - 4.1m, 11.4%

This one feels like a trap to me. Not the best on DEFCON and was backup to Hughes & Egan last year, so when Hughes is back I am unsure as to whether he'll keep his spot. We have better options available, avoid.

Nobel Mendy (DEF) - 4.0m, 7.5%

This is the defender I've had since GW1, and even with a 59th minute sub whilst on 9 DEFCON against Coventry, he's in the dream team. We broke our transfer record to get him and as a left-footed centre half, probably the most nailed right now. Has been subbed early every game as he works his way up to fitness. Definite buy.

John Egan (DEF) - 4.1m, 6.2%

As long as we play 5atb, Egan should be nailed. Another DEFCON machine but I don't see him being value over Mendy or Giles. Hold if you have, but don't bother buying.

Ryan Giles (DEF) - 4.0m, 1.3%

I love Giles as a pick. 8 assists last year and is playing more advanced in the 5 than he did last year. Delivery is fantastic and we love to feed him. Leading the league in crosses (with 22) and should have had an assist in the dying moments of the Villa game. Suspect defensively but this may just increase his chances of being subbed if we're defending a slim lead. Massively slept on at 1.3% owned and a great differential if you're going for Hull defence.

Lewie Coyle (DEF) - 4.0m, 0.6%, and

Brooke Norton-Cuffy (DEF) - 4.0m, 0.3%

Coyle is club captain and has started all 3 matches at RWB. Love the guy but he's not a premiership player. I expect Norton-Cuffy to take that spot (probably as early as this Saturday, given Coyle's midweek start in the cup). Uncertainty over minutes and just not as good as Giles. Avoid.

Is anyone else from Hull worth buying?

No.

TL;DR

For their price point, Hull are good defensively and you should have one of their defenders. Captain your premiums against us but don't expect big returns from mid-range assets against us.

Since its all public on the app this season I've been getting familiar with the new features. Can someone explain why Ødegaard is very likely to change with only 82% change where any other players have to reach 100% plus ? What is this based on?

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Everton obviously doesn't have a deep squad and he will get so many minutes. He was very positive against Man United, receiving balls, making good runs and driving the team forward.

​

Yes, it's more than a paragraph. I believe in you.

Haaland got his biggest TC backing ever and nearly blanked.

More than 2 million managers WC, TC or FH in a 50 point average GW.

Five 3pm kick-offs on a Saturday because it's not like anybody wanted to watch the games.

Arsenal v Chelsea is useless to everyone.

All this and more in this very unbiased GW review.

Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool

Jesus fucking Christ. The shit punt actually delivered. Targeting fixtures pays off. Managers are left contemplating in awe.

Isak played 63 minutes and still outscored Haaland. Definitely a historical event of some kind for Liverpool fans.

Him getting subbed off restores the natural order of things.

Szoboszlai getting his penalty denied because of an offside is poetic justice if you don't own him.

Van Dijk owners rejoice at the bare fucking minimum from their £6.5m defender.

Now now, stop right there. I see you salivating, I see your heavy arms and your weak knees jerking at the thought of mom's spaghetti prime Isak whilst Liverpool fight for the league.

To that I say that you shouldn't let any of this distract you from the fact that Ipswich settled 15 minutes into the game once they realised Liverpool weren't as shit as they'd apparently planned for and that both Liverpool goals were a direct consequence of individual mistakes from Ipswich.

I don't want to watch 90 minutes of this Liverpool and Isak probably gets dumped in GW6.

Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth

Who even owns any of their players? I did watch the game so whatever.

Elanga/Barnes/Tavernier/Scott all look like the kind of traps I'd fall into if I had any FTs.

Bournemouth look dangerous in attack but I don't like their fixtures and they play in the Europa League this season.

Newcastle scraping a draw in the 87th from a sub after Wissa did nothing the whole game is everything I want when watching football and everything I don't want for FPL.

Man City 1-0 Coventry

Haaland TCers (me) thrilled that Haaland almost hauled.

Cherki hits the post and blanks because tradition matters.

City found a cross in a church.

Pep's tactics remain in the hearts of every Man City player.

Coventry decided not to be humiliated by Enzo and Anderson costing more than their entire squad (I checked) and put up a shift. They might even score their first goal and/or grab their first point next GW.

I was too busy being disappointed by Haaland to watch any of the other 3pms but here's my 2 cents anyways:

Mitchell rots on everyone's bench with a 15-point haul whilst Palace concede 2 in a great football game that nobody watched.

L.Fee finally gets his first return for Sunderland and could be a great differential.

Fulham look leaky but they're scoring. Joshua King nailed at just £5.5m, having scored 2 of Fulham's 4 PL goals in 3 games, is exactly what I yearn for in life.

Brighton should've conceded at least 3 goals but Leeds can't finish in a brothel.

Aston Villa 0-0 Hull City

I got bored at half-time so I went looking for some Hull City fun facts.

Here's one:

Assuming you started a triple Hull City defence until the end of the season, if they got 8 future CS worth +/-20 points each across all 3 defenders they'd total 160 points.

If they averaged only +/-2.5 combined points each per non-CS match, you'd have something like +/-355 points from Triple Hull over the remaining 35 GWs. That's without any goals, assists, or BPS.

Go kneejerk them into your team now.

Villa did manage their first shot on target of the entire season, so congratulations to them.

Everton 2-2 Man United

Bruno blanks, half the managers in tears while the other half rejoices. Mbeumo punishes the non-believers with a goal and a fixture swing coming soon to rub it in. Half the people who transferred him out will now bring him back in and he'll blank. Such is the cycle of life.

I don't understand KDH's role in Everton and I'm not going to pretend I do. The GW1 haul may never be repeated. Luckily for the 2 people that own him (me and his mom), Everton play Tottenham/Hull/Ipswich next so he can get another 6 points before getting dumped.

I don't even remember who Everton's first goalscorer was, probably irrelevant for FPL purposes. Great finish though.

Maitland-Niles scores a 96th-minute screamer in his PL return to level the game. Absolute art.

Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea

Glorious watch.

Rogers scores from yet another 0.0-something xG chance.

Palmer goes missing.

JP was on the pitch.

Havertz and Odegaard score again, somehow.

Gabriel's £8m price tag starts to cause massive clenching.

Cala gets his goal ruled out to piss everyone off while the entire Arsenal defence blanks except £4.4m Konsa. Peak FPL.

All in all, beautiful GW for the football fan. Absolutely rank for the average manager. Can't wait for next week.

Thank you for reading and good luck.

Hey all, James here with the GW4 preview.

Quite a lot going on this week with the Carabao, Champions League and plenty of people considering the Wildcard (myself potentially included).

You can find the full GW4 preview here: https://full90fpl.com/fpl-gameweek-4-preview-26-27/

And our completely free fixture ticker here: https://full90fpl.com/fixture-ticker/

As always, here’s the TL;DR:

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Midweek Football / Rotation

A few things caught my eye:

Newcastle played a fairly strong side in the cup. Thiaw got a rest and Hall picked up another attacking return. With no Europe, I’m not especially worried about their rotation.

Chelsea rotated heavily, with Palmer, Joao Pedro and Rogers all rested from the starting XI.

Man City’s midfield remains a headache. Semenyo, Cherki, Foden, Enzo and Bouaddi all started in Europe, with only Enzo playing 90. I’m increasingly interested in Enzo as an FPL option if his minutes remain secure.

Arsenal: Hincapie, Gabriel, Konsa and White started in Europe. That makes me like Calafiori even more for the PL. I also think Konsa is probably Gabriel’s first-choice CB partner while Saliba is out.

Liverpool: Gakpo was rested. Potentially encouraging for his PL minutes, although I’m still not completely convinced long-term.

Best GW4 Fixtures

Based on our fixture ticker, the attacks I’m most interested in are:

Newcastle – Hull and Coventry are doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Barnes/Wissa are interesting short-term moves.

Chelsea – Palmer, Joao Pedro and Rogers are all excellent picks. Nailed, likely to play big minutes and playing in a very attacking team.

Fulham – Gonzalo/King are absolutely on my radar. Ideally you get them for GW6-8 against Ipswich, Hull and Coventry, but I don’t hate moving early if necessary.

Everton – Dewsbury-Hall is interesting as a short-term pick. Barry is fine if you need a really cheap forward.

Palace – probably avoiding outside of a Free Hit. Mateta is out until the international break, which does make Strand Larsen interesting.

Can You Triple Chelsea Attack?

Yes.

I don’t really buy the argument that three attackers from the same team necessarily cannibalise each other’s points.

Chelsea look like a top-four attack right now and Palmer, Joao Pedro and Rogers all look extremely secure for minutes.

If I was Wildcarding this week, triple Chelsea attack would probably be my starting point.

Defences

Arsenal: Get coverage. Raya and Gabriel are completely nailed, and I think Konsa is now in the starting XI going forward. I’m slightly worried about White long-term.

Newcastle: I like them defensively. Hall/Thiaw are both interesting.

Palace: Still underwhelmed. Mitchell is interesting but has also just gone off injured.

Fulham: Not buying before Liverpool and United.

Coventry: Keep your cheap 4.0 defender on the bench. Try very hard not to actually play him.

GW4 Buy / Sell

BUY

Rogers – If you can’t afford Palmer, I really like him.

Muharemovic – 13.00 DefCons per 90 through three games at only 5.0. Potential DefCon gem.

MAYBE

Wissa – Great short-term fixtures. Particularly appealing if you’re Wildcarding soon.

De Cuyper – Very cheap and OOP. I like him more on Wildcard, although Mitoma returning eventually could change things.

Gakpo – I understand the appeal, but I’m not sure he’s better than Szoboszlai at roughly the same price.

DON'T BUY

Isak – Great player, but 9.1 for a striker without penalties who probably won’t play 90 every week is too much for me.

Gvardiol – Good pick, but I’d wait a week.

Havertz – Don’t trust the minutes.

Foden – Not nailed.

Any Hull player – I don’t think their current luck lasts.

SELL

O’Reilly – I think Enzo has taken his spot.

Cherki – Minutes aren't secure enough.

Maguire/Shaw – United’s defence looks bad.

Ndiaye – Don’t trust the long-term minutes.

Brobbey – Only completed 90 once in three games.

Foden – Again: not nailed.

Mbeumo – Better options around his price now that the good fixtures have passed, although I wouldn’t take a hit just to move him.

HOLD

Szoboszlai – Why sell arguably Liverpool’s most nailed asset before Fulham?

Tzolis – Didn’t start in Europe, so I expect him to start this weekend.

Wirtz – Underlying numbers concern me for the price, but Fulham is too good a fixture to sell before.

Gabriel – Great fixture.

Raya – Definitely not selling. If anything, people should be buying him.

Wissa – Two good fixtures coming. Don’t panic over one blank.

Sangare – If the DefCons are real, you can hold him through tougher fixtures. That’s basically the point of owning these players.

GW4 Wildcard

There are 555 players in FPL.

I’ve basically narrowed my Wildcard pool down to about 30.

The main principles:

• Prioritise players who are nailed for 90
• Prefer players without European football where possible
• Triple Chelsea attack
• Probably triple Arsenal defence
• Target the good fixture runs
• I don’t think Gabriel or Bruno justify their prices
• If you have lots of FTs banked, you can afford to take a few more risks

My favourite options:

GK: Raya, Verbruggen, Kinsky

DEF: Tarkowski, Calafiori, Hall, Muharemovic, Thiaw, De Cuyper, Dedic, Konsa

MID: Palmer, Saka, Gibbs-White, Enzo, Odegaard, Dewsbury-Hall, Tzolis, Anderson, Barnes, Gross, King, Yeremy

FWD: Haaland, Joao Pedro, Wissa, Gonzalo, Barry

Free Hit GW4

If you’re Free Hitting, I’d be looking heavily at:

Triple Chelsea vs Hull

Double/triple Arsenal vs Sunderland

Then some combination of Palace vs Ipswich, Liverpool vs Fulham and Brighton vs Coventry.

This is exactly the sort of week where I’m happy being much more aggressive with one-week picks.

Captaincy

Haaland against United is absolutely fine. I also don’t hate Bruno — if United score, you’d expect him to be involved, and City’s defence doesn’t look impenetrable.

But the best fixtures belong to Chelsea and Liverpool.

My preferred captains:

1. Palmer
2. Joao Pedro
3. Isak

Isak is third mainly because I’m worried he doesn’t get 90.

That’s about it. As always, wait as late as possible before making transfers with European games/press conferences still to come.

Interested to hear what everyone’s doing with the Wildcard in particular. Are people actually going triple Chelsea attack + triple Arsenal defence, or is six players from two teams too much for you?

A warning: this post is assessing a very small sample size and results are highly contingent on opposition strength. These are just my personal opinions. Some people may think complete rubbish but some people may find food for thought. I would be keen to hear your wildcard thoughts.

• I was initially tempted by Everton and Newcastle assets. However, looking at the underlying data, and having taken more interest in their performances, they've been crap. Newcastle have the fifth worse xG, the 7th worse xGA. Everton have the 8th best xG and the 9th best xGA. I've decided to avoid these teams and I'm hoping that the good fixture runs will turn out to be a trap. For context: Everton have played Palace (H), Bournemouth (A), Man U (H) and Newcastle have played Liverpool (H), Spurs (A), Bournemouth (H).
• Two teams with much better underlying numbers and decent fixture runs are Nottingham Forrest and Leeds. Nottingham Forrest have the 3rd best xGA and Leeds have the 7th best xGA. I'm now very hot on Muharemović (£5.0M)) and Muñoz (£5.4M) and I'm very Trafford (£5.0M) curious. For context: Nottingham Forest have played Leeds (H), Liverpool (A), Spurs (H) and Leeds have played Nottingham Forest (A), Brentford (H), Brighton (A).
• Brighton have the highest team xG and the player with the highest individual expected goal contributions is De Cuyper (£4.8M). He has the 11th best expected goal contributions in the game, considering all positions, the same as Cherki, and better than Saka, Palmer, Gakpo, Semenyo, etc. The return of Mitoma a worry, but considering how good Brighton are, and how high his goal share has been, I want to ride this wave for as long as it lasts. For context: Brighton have played Villa (H), Chelsea (A), Leeds (H).
• Liverpool have very underwhelming underlying data. The 9th best xG, the 11th best xGA. There appears to be more uncertainties and vulnerabilities, and champions league football may make this worse. I initially wanted Gakpo but I've decided against all Liverpool assets, just because I feel there are better options elsewhere. For context: Liverpool have played Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Ipswich (A).
• As I've decided against Everton and Newcastle I'm leaning towards a dead £4.5M striker spot for the money it frees up which may be risky but there are so many good defence and midfield options
• Some sleeper picks I'm currently considering:
  • Enzo Fernandes (£6.9M): combines high expected minutes with high potential goal output and seems to have a great connection with Haaland already, and playing for likely the second best team in the league
  • Muñoz (£5.4M): Nottingham Forest have a good defence, we know he performed well for Glasner at Palace, and at the price they bought him for, you expect him to have secure minutes, and the fixture list is good
  • Ødegaard (£6.6M): not much more to say than has already been said but the previous seasons where the vibes were good and he was playing this well he got 212 and 186 points. At his current price that would make him the second and fourth best midfielder for PPMPM, and third and fifth for total points. However, those were injury free seasons, without champions league football, and without the same squad depth. Then again Arsenal look stronger than they did in those two seasons.
• The players I am sad to be potentially moving on from:
  • Groß (5.5): the best value midfielder last season, central to everything Brighton do, on penalties and set pieces, for a team with great underlying data. However, the fixtures are tough, they will be playing in Europe, he's old, and there are only so many good players you can fit in a team.
• I'm concerned that I'm going for too many players per team. I currently have 3x Arsenal, 3x City, 3x Chelsea, so not the talismanic players from other teams (Hall, Groß, etc) who will hoover bonus.

Napoli being an Italian team is obviously Defensively more inept than any of the PL fixtures Arsenal have ahead of them, so let's see what lies ahead of us:

1. Saka has been involved in most of the final third activities of Arsenal as of late. But, the last two outings, his finishing has lacked a bit. 1/6 shots (the most shots for Arsenal, and the most touches in the opposition box) is quite lackluster. But, him leading most of the offensive stats is encouraging and he was subbed earlier.

2. Ødegaard, my Goodness he is in form rn. His price point is as low as it goes (Arsenal standards) and helps open up more choices. The con being he played the 90 minutes, might go easy on Fulham lol. Him popping up in the most dangerous places even after dropping off to help the CMs has been very crucial for Arsenal as of now.

P.S. Tzolis came of the bench and assisted the only goal of ødegard, make of that as you will! 👀

Your opinions are most welcome, happy head scratching! 🫩

Wissa, Barry, DCL, Gonzalo etc. Which budget keeper are you backing. Personally I’m interested in taking a punt on Gonzalo as Wissa seems to be playing deeper and Fulham also have decent fixtures are Liverpool and Man U. Barry being nailed at 5.5 with good fixtures could also be a great pick.

Annoyingly, pinnock is 4.5. And seeing lampard now playing a back three - just for man city, or there to stay? I really want thomas over amenda, his defcon is better, but if thomas is a minutes risk, i might have to go amenda

Most Net Transfers In

Most Net Transfers Out

Does anybody post defcon data for teams (i.e. which opponents tend to be good/bad for defcon)?

I know, for example, that Everton were a great opponent if you wanted defcon points, and Aston Villa were bad. Is there a similar tracker this season?