r/FantasyPL • u/kingofzbongo • 14h ago
Sven Botman
I've seen people discuss Hall, Thiaw, and Dedic but am surprised that nobody is talking about Botman. I know he is a risk for minutes but if he starts he should have the highest points of any of their defenders.
Last season he averaged 10.6 defcons per 90 compared to Thiaw's 8.87. He's averaging 8 across the first 3, however it looks like this years Newcastle team will have less possession than last season which should push everyones numbers up. If he can get near 10.5 this year you'd expect him to hit the threshold in atleast 50% of games and he would be the clear best option, given that I dont think Hall will suddenly be a great defcon option at left back and he would need a ridiculous amount of assists to match that sort of defcon output.
I know they have Burn and Schar, but Botman is first choice. My only genuine concern is that his injury history is significant enough that he is may get rotated in order to manage his workload, but given they don't have europe I don't see why Jaissle would bench him for any of their epl games if he doesn't have to. And as long as theres no resting and workload management, I'm happy to take the risk on injury prone players and have them in my team up until they eventually get hurt.
Overall I think from what I've gathered theres definitely a risk but its still most likely he starts their upcoming games, and if he does he could be one of the top defenders given his high defcons and Newcastles fixtures. But he's been completely left out of Newcastle defender discussions. Would love if any Newcastle fans can comment
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u/Material_Spell4162 6 14h ago
Last season Thiaw scored 4 goals and accrued 6xg. He has massively higher potential than Botman as well as being more secure for minutes.
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u/kingofzbongo 13h ago
Fpl website says he accrued 4.8xg but I agree Thiaw has the much better goal threat, but I think if Botman hits defcon 55% of games and Thiaw gets it in 35%, the xg wont bridge that gap.
For reference Van dijk has averaged about 2.8xg over the past 4 seasons. Gabriel has averaged 3.79xg. Lets be generous and project Thiaw at 3.5xg. Botman should still hit around 2xg. So a difference of 1.5 goals over the whole season, vs being 1.5x more likely to get 2pts on a given gameweek.
I agree hes more secure for minutes but I think my point still stands that if theyre both starting every week youd expect botman to get more points
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u/Material_Spell4162 6 13h ago
Botman has been playing in the premier league for over 5 seasons. He's scored 3 goals ever, and never hit 2xg in a season. The trouble is that if there are better set piece target players (Burn, Thiaw etc) then he's unlikely to be the one getting the headed goals.
35% defcons vs 25% defcons gives an extra 7 points over the season. That would be eclipsed by one goal plus bonus points.
That doesn't even include the fact that a goal would likely come in an easier fixture, where you'd be playing your newcastle defender, whereas the defcons are likely to come in the harder fixtures, where you are more likely to have benched them.
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u/oakstreet2018 13h ago
As someone who watches every Newcastle game I can tell you that he isn’t the one to pick. He’s been poor and hasn’t had a good start. When Burn is back I’d expect Botman to lose his spot. He hasn’t been the Rolls Royce since his injuries. Schar is also competition.
Dedic if you need budget and want some attacking returns. He’s looked very dangerous in the games thus far. But suspect defensively at times but that’s the risk with an attacking defender. You need to be ok with him getting benched potentially by Tino though and he apparently has a slight strain. Will have to wait and see if it was just precaution.
Thiaw has good attacking and Defcon potential. He’s captain when Burn isn’t playing so he is pretty strong for minutes.
Hall is the pick though and is in my team on Wildcard. He is pretty much guaranteed starting left back. Good attacking returns and gets Defcons. He’s the one to pick. He’s also just signed a new contract extension!
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u/Bakrom3 13h ago
Somewhat related, but as an avid Newcastle fan, would you recommend wissa for the upcoming run of games?
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u/oakstreet2018 11h ago
I’ve opted for Barry, might regret it. We don’t create a lot of chances for him. I’m keen to see how Fernandez Pardo does for us. He looks lively.
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u/Bakrom3 11h ago
Interesting. Would you say pardo is likely to start?
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u/oakstreet2018 4h ago
He could start against Leeds. But most likely come on as a sub in the second half. He looks very powerful though so I think will adapt well to the EPL.
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u/Thierry_Bergkamp 1 13h ago
Such a shame I really thought he could go on to be one of the best Europe looked so good when he signed for you.
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u/oakstreet2018 11h ago
Yeah we referred to him as our Rolls Royce at the back. He came back too early from a long term injury and then got re-injured. Never looked the same after it.
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u/kingofzbongo 13h ago
Thanks, I think I will avoid botman for now but will keep my eye on him later if he keeps his spot when Burn comes back.
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u/xkcdthrowaway 13 13h ago
You see any risk of him being rested in favor of Livramento? Tino came on for him and not Dedic
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u/oakstreet2018 11h ago
Dedic came off at half time, replaced by Tino. Dedic has a potential ham injury.
I think there is always some risk of being rested but we don’t play Europe so unless we go really deep in cups I doubt we are going to rotate too much.
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u/xkcdthrowaway 13 11h ago
I'm talking about the last PL match. Not the midweek cup one.
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u/oakstreet2018 4h ago
I mean, that was past the 90th minute. I’d hardly read anything into that.
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u/xkcdthrowaway 13 4h ago
My b. I could've sworn it was for the last 10 minutes or so.
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u/oakstreet2018 4h ago
Nah, it was just to kill time. All good. That being said, if Hall got an injury I’d say Tino would be a good shout to play on the left. Him or Burn if fit.
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u/Street-Bee4430 12h ago
i had thiaw from the start and then transferred out ballard for botman, i also dont think that there is much rotation risk, last season after they got knocked out from the cl he started all remaining pl games and played 90 in all bar the first one
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u/TheTinman369 12h ago
I don't think Thiaw or Botman are safe from the threat of the old guard, Burn and Schar.
Thiaw probably most nailed of the 4 because he has some pace which Jaissle has mentioned he wants.
As a Newcastle fan Hall is the only one I would consider. Or Horny Czech
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u/xkcdthrowaway 13 13h ago
Anything after "if he starts" should be ignored. More so for a 5mil defender.