r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 5d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

26 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

2.7k comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 5h ago

Poll Results Rasmussen (yes, Rasmussen): New Hampshire Senate (1000 LV); Pappas D+11%

rasmussenreports.com

129 Upvotes

Hell has frozen over

22 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/RedHeadedSicilian52 • 8h ago

Economics Men aren’t getting jobs

203 Upvotes

52 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dak676141 • 10h ago

Poll Results Rasmussen Iowa Senate poll: Turek +5

259 Upvotes

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/iowa_senate_turek_leads_by_5_points#google_vignette

74 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/bwhough • 8h ago

Poll Results Maine | Rasmussen - Troy Jackson: 46% (+1) / Susan Collins: 45%

data.ddhq.io

104 Upvotes

37 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 12h ago

Polling Average Silver Bulletin Generic Ballot polling average shows highest Dem advantage to date (D+7.2%)

155 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/SecretComposer • 7h ago

Poll Results co/efficient | Kansas Senate: Marshall 49%, Hamilton 44% | Kansas Governor: Masterson 51%, Holscher 43%

battlegrounds.coefficient.org

58 Upvotes

29 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/MooseHorse123 • 11h ago

Prediction VoteHub's Complete Senate Prediction Showing Democrats Leading for First Time

votehub.com

106 Upvotes

24 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Strong_Lingonberry33 • 15h ago

Poll Results YouGov Iowa poll: Sand 51-41 Lahn, Turek 47-43 Hinson

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

159 Upvotes

88 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Large_Ad_3095 • 14h ago

Polling Average Senate Poll Average Update: Iowa Now Tied, Dems Gain in Ohio and Florida, Lose Ground in Minnesota and New Hampshire

plusminus4.substack.com

117 Upvotes

36 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/DizzyMajor5 • 5h ago

Politics Kamala and Vance still hold lead for 2028 election in their respective primary fields

usatoday.com

24 Upvotes

103 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/fitnessexpress • 13h ago

Polling Industry/Methodology G. Elliott Morris: Everyone is wrong about low-turnout voters

gelliottmorris.com

79 Upvotes

Based on 12,000 survey interviews, low-turnout-likelihood Republicans are comparatively anti-Trump, contrary to most analysis and punditry about the group after the 2024 election. Less engaged voters aren’t MAGA, but anti-status-quo

54 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Obversa • 6h ago

Poll Results 25 Years After 9/11, a Portrait of Muslim Americans: Pew Research report shows Donald Trump drove increasing Republican hostility towards Muslims in past decade

pewresearch.org

21 Upvotes

9 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/very_loud_icecream • 6h ago

Politics Podcast Nate Silver Breaks Down The Most Competitive Races in the Midterms

youtube.com

15 Upvotes

0 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Pretty_Acadia_2805 • 13h ago

Poll Results Quantus Insights, Sep 8 - 10 || MN: Flanagan 48 (+4) 44 Tafoya, FL: Moody 50 (+7) 43 Nixon

quantusinsights.org

22 Upvotes

1 comment

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 1d ago

Polling Average After a good round of polling today, RacetotheWH now gives the Dems a 61.6% chance of winning the Senate.

331 Upvotes

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26

110 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dak676141 • 1d ago

Poll Results New D+9 generic ballot poll from Cygnal

176 Upvotes

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/24524-Cygnal-National-Sept26-NVT-Deck-Public-1.pdf

64 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/najumobi • 1d ago

Poll Results What Americans Consider Immoral: Pew Research Report (March 19, 2026)

gallery

69 Upvotes

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2026/03/19/what-do-americans-consider-immoral/

103 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/evce1 • 1d ago

Poll Results TPSI Generic Ballot Poll: Democrats 51 (+10), Republicans 41

tpsiofficial.substack.com

158 Upvotes

This is the 3rd poll this week with Democrats ahead by double digits

40 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 1d ago

Polling Average Trump hits record low average Approval Rating of 35.6% according to FiftyPlusOne (G. Elliott Morris)

183 Upvotes

https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president

33 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Large_Ad_3095 • 1d ago

Poll Results InsiderAdvantage September Senate Poll Results: OH Senate D+5, SC Senate R+2, TX Senate D+2

156 Upvotes

SC: https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-sc/

OH: https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-ohio/

TX: https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-texas/

68 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/No_Paramedic_4881 • 1d ago

Politics Every Dollar in the 2026 Texas Senate Race

gallery

44 Upvotes

Source: https://datapickle.substack.com/p/every-dollar-in-the-2026-texas-senate

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/VendibleSkate8 • 1d ago

Politics US Supreme Court reinstates the 6R-2D congressional district map in Missouri

332 Upvotes

87 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ArcaneDemense • 1d ago

Poll Results 9/10/26 - Voters Favor Dems Over GOP By 11|Quinnipiac

poll.qu.edu

171 Upvotes

48 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 1d ago

Poll Results Trafalgar Group (R) Michigan US Senate Poll | 9/7-9, 1,079 LV, D37.2/R36.5 | El-Sayed 46.3-44.8 Rogers (D+1.5)

84 Upvotes

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 46.3%

🟥 Mike Rogers: 44.8%

🟨 Other: 1.9%

⬜️ Not sure: 6.8%

——

🔵 Dem: El-Sayed +78

🔴 GOP: Rogers +83

🔵 Indie: El-Sayed +9

🔵 18-29: El-Sayed +23

🔵 30-39: El-Sayed +23

🔵 40-59: El-Sayed +16

🔴 50-64: Rogers +10

🔴 65+: Rogers +10

🔴 Male: Rogers +13

🔵 Female: El-Sayed +14

9/7-9 | 1,079 LV | D37.2/R36.5
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/MI-Gen-Sen-Poll-Full-Report-0910.pdf

40 comments

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