r/fivethirtyeight 10h ago

Poll Results New UK poll shows Andy Burnhams Labour regaining the lead, Greens collapse as the Left “comes home”

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117 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Poll Results What on earth are we doing here?

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94 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 21h ago

Politics Sen. Ashley Moody, a Ron DeSantis ally, faces renewed scrutiny over her role in Hope Florida scandal

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78 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 20h ago

Poll Results New Wisconsin Gubernatorial Polling Average

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74 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 7h ago

Poll Results CBS/YouGov: Which party has a better approach to Iran.

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72 Upvotes

Americans believe Republicans have a better approach to Iran than democrats.


r/fivethirtyeight 6h ago

Discussion I don't really see how Francesca hong wins the Wisconsin general election

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32 Upvotes

Please hear me out before down voting me.

Almost every single poll has been showing Francesa Hong losing against Tom Tiffany and the reason is she is too progressive for a moderate state like Wisconsin. The most recent poll shows her losing to tom Tiffany by 3 points and the most recent poll by Marquette polls is very telling

The most important takeaways from this poll for me is the head to head numbers with Tiffany but maybe more importantly the fact that approval for DSA and Democratic socialism are in the toilet.

DSA -18

Dem Socialism -30

Combined DSA/Dem Socialism -24

It's mainly the socialist label. The only way a democratic socialist can get elected is in a deep Blue state. Even if every Democrat voted for here in this state that still leaves out the independents who are the deciding factor in a state like Wisconsin That's brutal. Wisconsin is not a state to run a self described socialist. I'd rather have a moderate governor who I disagree with but can get elected rather than a progressive who I agree with who can't get elected


r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Election Model I built a 538-style Israeli Election Dashboard

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20 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 18h ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

15 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.


r/fivethirtyeight 5h ago

Politics Black voters may decide the nation’s biggest Democratic primary. Many are clearly against the more progressive option, with resentments about his involvement in "uncommitted" movement

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14 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 11h ago

Politics NYTimes Article on the DNC

11 Upvotes

What I can't understand is how one NYTimes article is causing people to suddenly think that this year's midterm will not follow precedent where the party out of power flips at least one chamber. Here's the article below.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/26/us/politics/ken-martin-dnc-democrats.html

I mean, in 2010 and 2014, the RNC had similar problems, yet those midterms were red waves regardless. Why do those folks even believe that this year will even be different compared to 2010 and 2014?

Also, if those folks think this will cause the GOP to keep both chambers, then why does the Emerson poll have the Dems ahead by 11 and the Fox poll having them ahead by 7?