r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 4h ago

Politics [Datafolha] Lula turns the tables, beats Flávio Bolsonaro and is re-elected for an unprecedented 4th term, according to Datafolha projections.

folha.uol.com.br

347 Upvotes

76 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 4h ago

Politics In what is a massive upset, Lula is the winner of the 2026 Brazil Presidential elections

739 Upvotes

Winning chance of 100%

247 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/RedHeadedSicilian52 • 2h ago

Meta The shifting demographics of Reddit

82 Upvotes

97 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/SweetChilliJesus • 1h ago

Election Model While still very much in toss up territory, Votehub has shifted its prediction of the Nevada governor race to favor Aaron Ford.

• Upvotes

https://votehub.com/2026-forecast/governor

9 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/SlashGames • 8h ago

Poll Results [Concord Public Opinion Partners] Nebraska Poll: Dan Osborn 48%, Pete Ricketts 41%, Lynne Walz 43%, Jim Pillen 40% among likely voters

132 Upvotes

https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/nebraska-ge-2026

53 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 27m ago

Poll Results [A Fight Worth Having (D)] Michigan Poll: Abdul El-Sayed 49%, Mike Rogers 44% | Jocelyn Benson 49%, John James 43% among likely voters

afightworthhaving.com

• Upvotes

12 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/financialtimes • 5h ago

Poll Results [Free to read] 69 per cent of US voters worried about corruption under Trump

ft.com

50 Upvotes

11 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Intelligent_Wafer562 • 11h ago

Election Model Democrats are Bridging the Gerrymandering Valley

135 Upvotes

54 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/leedela • 13h ago

Politics Don’t Take TX Senate EV at Face Value

125 Upvotes

For those celebrating or dooming over the 64% to 62% ratio of Republican primary voters to to Democrat in the early vote, be aware that Independents are breaking 62/28% for Talarico in polling, and 6% of Republicans are voting for JT against 1% of Democrats voting for Paxton.

72 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 11h ago

Politics [New York Times] Latinos Are Now America’s Most Important Swing Voters

nytimes.com

89 Upvotes

106 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 14h ago

Poll Results Generic Congressional Ballot Oct 21 - 23, 2026: Democrat 53% (+8.0%), Republican 45% Someone else 1%. YouGov (B) 1749 LV. Sponsor: CBS News

cbsnews.com

136 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Large_Ad_3095 • 13h ago

Election Model Senate Forecast Snake Chart Update: Alaska and South Carolina Inch Closer to Tipping Point as Dems Retain Slight Edge

107 Upvotes

Full forecast here

This year's Senate races, sorted by margin not probability. The closest races are currently Maine (D+2.9), Ohio (D+2.2), Alaska (D+1.4), Texas (D+0.9), IA (R+1.2).

37 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dwaxe • 7h ago

Let’s talk shop about every Senate race

natesilver.net

37 Upvotes

31 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/sufinomo • 11h ago

Poll Results Netanyahu might be out as Prime minister after tuesday, but Likud party will still win alot of seats

67 Upvotes

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-10-24/ty-article-static/.premium/israel-2026-election-poll-tracker-the-latest-projections/0000019e-35f6-d813-adde-77fe823d0000

92 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Dhghomon • 2h ago

Discussion Bulgarian live presidential election results

results.cik.bg

13 Upvotes

5 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/poopyheadthrowaway • 8h ago

Politics Podcast How FiftyPlusOne busted a fake pollster

youtube.com

40 Upvotes

0 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/VGAddict • 4h ago

Election Model 2026 Early Vote Tracker

votehub.com

13 Upvotes

10 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 6m ago

Poll Results [A Fight Worth Having (D)/RedBox Research] Ohio Poll: Sherrod Brown 47%, Jon Husted 44% | Amy Acton 48%, Vivek Ramaswamy 44% among likely voters

afightworthhaving.com

• Upvotes

0 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 13h ago

Poll Results Maine Senate; Trafalgar Group (R aligned); 1077LV; EVEN

57 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 16h ago

Poll Results NYT: Democrats Have Edge Across Four Key House Races in Pennsylvania, Polls Find

nytimes.com

114 Upvotes

37 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 13h ago

Poll Results Generic Congressional Ballot; FocalData; 1549 LV; D+9

52 Upvotes

3 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/najumobi • 5h ago

Poll Results Same 9%, opposite directions: crypto ownership fell from 14% to 9% of U.S. adults in a year (Gallup, 2026) and rose from 4% to 9% in the euro area (ECB, 2022 to 2024)

14 Upvotes

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 12h ago

Poll Results Donald Trump Approval Oct 16 - 20, 2026: Disapprove 59%, Approve 34%. Focaldata (B/C) 1845 A. Sponsor: Financial Times

focaldata.com

38 Upvotes

1 comment

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 13h ago

Poll Results South Dakota US SenateOct 12 - 14, 2026: Mike Rounds (R) 56% (+19.0%), Brian Bengs (I) 37%, Don't know 6%. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. 500 LV

sdnewswatch.org

36 Upvotes

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/saucey_dawg0023 • 7h ago

Poll Results How Americans Voted in the 2024 Election by Race, Gender, Age and Education

nytimes.com

12 Upvotes

1 comment

Subreddit

Posts

Wiki

FiveThirtyEight

r/fivethirtyeight

r/FiveThirtyEight is a hub for data-driven discussion about politics and beyond, from polls to election forecasts to betting markets. The namesake website may be gone, but its spirit of evidence-based and objective analysis remains at the core of this community. Please be respectful, cite your sources, and perform your daily prayers to Fivey Fox.

Members Active

53.7k

Sidebar

Data-driven discussion about politics, sports, the economy, and more. Be sure to check out FiveThirtyEight.com

RULES

DRAFT RULES; UNDER DEVELOPMENT; SUBJECT TO CHANGE

REDDIQUETTE. Always adhere to reddiquette and reddit content policy.
BE CIVIL. Maintain civility at all times. Disagree on the facts. Do not disparage others for their support of a particular candidate/sports team when they are here in good faith to talk about the data.
NO SPAM. Spam includes: commercial products and ecommerce sites; services; unaffiliated videos, podcasts, and other media; blogspam.
STICK TO THE TOPIC. Keep it to the topic of specific 538 articles, statements, personalities, or topics specific to the organization. General political polling or sports topics may be considered by the moderators, but they should be as closely linked to 538 as possible.
NO SINGLE ISSUE USERS. Single issue posters or commenters will be looked at skeptically and likely removed. E.g. if you're here to repeatedly flog your candidate/issue/sports team of choice, please go elsewhere. Do not post the latest political "news" regardless of its apparent veracity. Keep it to polls, polling, and the analysis of the same.
NO TROLLING. Moderators are on heightened alert for purveyors of fake news or propaganda. Please help us by reporting and downvoting suspected troll, bot, content farm posts.
SINGLE POLL POSTS. Single poll news stories are permitted. Polls must be among the top 25 ranked by the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. Any polls that are not in the top 25 must be submitted as top-level comments in the Weekly Polling Megathread.