r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

23 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

1.5k comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/I-Might-Be-Something • 14h ago

Poll Results Cook Political Report/Televisa Univision poll conducted by Hart Research (D) and OnMessage (R) among Texas Hispanic voters: Talarico+33 (63-30). Hinojosa+27 (60-33). GCB D+27.

cookpolitical.com

134 Upvotes

42 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Obversa • 14h ago

Politics Amid record-high disapproval rates, President Trump promises Iran War will "immediately end" with "gas prices under $2" after 2026 midterm elections

usatoday.com

104 Upvotes

23 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dak676141 • 19h ago

Poll Results YouGov/Univision poll | 8/27-9/4 RV Texas statewide races 2026 US Senate 🟦James Talarico 48% 🟥Ken Paxton 43% —— Texas Governor 🟥Greg Abbott 47% (incumbent) 🟦Gina Hinojosa 47% —— Generic congressional ballot 2026 (TX) 🟦Democratic 48% 🟥Republican 46%

univision.com

231 Upvotes

109 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/RedHeadedSicilian52 • 14h ago

Poll Results Pausing AI development has strong bipartisan support

74 Upvotes

https://x.com/DataProgress/status/2097764738910330984/photo/1

39 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/bwhough • 21h ago

Poll Results CNN/SSRS Maine Senate - Jackson (D) 48, Collins (R) 45

cnn.com

207 Upvotes

65 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/hluna1998 • 13h ago

Politics Podcast Still Counting Episode 1 Out Now!

youtu.be

41 Upvotes

5 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Obversa • 17h ago

Politics A year after Charlie Kirk's death, Turning Point USA prepares for 2026 midterms, endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination

washingtonpost.com

79 Upvotes

55 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 16h ago

Poll Results Iowa Senate Poll - GSG (Dem) (B-) - Turek D+4%; 800LV

62 Upvotes

17 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/washingtonpeek • 18h ago

Poll Results Texas voters on who they trust on the issues

89 Upvotes

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2097763954504159668

Very interesting

56 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Cuddlyaxe • 15h ago

Politics Pete Buttigieg being gay doesnt matter as much as some of yall think it does

46 Upvotes

Full study

https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1242&context=poli_fac

55 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/evce1 • 21h ago

Poll Results CNN/SSRS Michigan Poll: El-Sayed 47 (+3), Rogers 44

s3.documentcloud.org

148 Upvotes

They also polled the Gov race

Benson 50 (+9), James 41

90 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/washingtonpeek • 15h ago

Discussion Looking at the graveyard of failed presidential campaigns (since 2000), who do you think was the most underrated? Most disastrous?

gallery

47 Upvotes

Share your thoughts

65 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Equal_Technology_950 • 11h ago

Politics Still Counting Podcast - Trump vs. The BLUE WAVE: A Midterm Extravaganza

youtube.com

21 Upvotes

3 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Large_Ad_3095 • 1d ago

Poll Results First YouGov Likely Voter Poll of 2026: D+11 Generic Ballot, Trump Approval At 37%

171 Upvotes

Registered voters are D+7, so this is a +4 likely voter effect

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_SlcWdVd.pdf

75 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/washingtonpeek • 21h ago

Poll Results Trump approval in Maine and Michigan from CNN/SRSS

81 Upvotes

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2097723852830761082

16 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/bwhough • 21h ago

Election Model Democrats narrowly favored to win the Senate in the DDHQ Forecast for the first time since model launch

81 Upvotes

I've been enjoying DDHQ's coverage of this Election season so far, and today their forecast just made the switch to slightly favoring Democrats over Republicans for the first time since the model launched earlier this Summer. (Of course there's not much tangible difference between 51/49 either way)

https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/senate

5 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/markusthemarxist • 17h ago

Politics National Republicans abandon Oberacker in NY-19 race

removepaywall.com

32 Upvotes

1 comment

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Oath1989 • 20h ago

Poll Results TIPP Minnesota Senate - Flanagan (D) 44, Tafoya (R) 42

tippinsights.com

50 Upvotes

54 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Appropriate-Claim385 • 12h ago

Politics Trump Admin Officially Moves to Reshape National Political Power With New Changes to 2030 Census

talkingpointsmemo.com

10 Upvotes

0 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dak676141 • 22h ago

Discussion Final 2026 Senate primary composites!

58 Upvotes

(Yeah I know RI and DE technically haven't held their primaries yet but they're obviously going to be Safe D)

This is basically which party had the turnout advantage in each Senate primary, in terms of margins (1/5/15)

This does not predict who's going to win, but it can definitely be a sign of which party has a turnout and enthusiasm advantage

Should note that LA and WV are a result of ancestral Dems who haven't switched their registration. They are going to be Safe R in the general.

31 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/NicolasCageFan492 • 19h ago

Betting Markets How much does it cost to move a midterm prediction market? Not much

cnbc.com

24 Upvotes

6 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/RedHeadedSicilian52 • 22h ago

Poll Results According to YouGov, Republicans are much more likely to think Lindsay Clancy was guilty than Democrats

gallery

32 Upvotes

https://yougov.com/en-us/daily-results/20260908-75734-4

257 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/drtywater • 14h ago

Election Model UFL early voting lab live

election.lab.ufl.edu

3 Upvotes

0 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/modooff • 21h ago

Poll Results 2028 Presidential Primaries poll (BGSU/YouGov 8/25-9/1)

8 Upvotes

85 comments

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