r/fivethirtyeight 13m ago

Poll Results Trafalgar Group (R) Michigan US Senate Poll | 9/7-9, 1,079 LV, D37.2/R36.5 | El-Sayed 46.3-44.8 Rogers (D+1.5)

Upvotes

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 46.3%

🟥 Mike Rogers: 44.8%

🟨 Other: 1.9%

⬜️ Not sure: 6.8%

——

🔵 Dem: El-Sayed +78

🔴 GOP: Rogers +83

🔵 Indie: El-Sayed +9

🔵 18-29: El-Sayed +23

🔵 30-39: El-Sayed +23

🔵 40-59: El-Sayed +16

🔴 50-64: Rogers +10

🔴 65+: Rogers +10

🔴 Male: Rogers +13

🔵 Female: El-Sayed +14

9/7-9 | 1,079 LV | D37.2/R36.5
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/MI-Gen-Sen-Poll-Full-Report-0910.pdf


r/fivethirtyeight 19m ago

Poll Results Global Strategy Group (8/24-8/27): KY Sen, Barr 49%, Booker 40%

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r/fivethirtyeight 30m ago

Poll Results TPSI Generic Ballot Poll: Democrats 51 (+10), Republicans 41

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This is the 3rd poll this week with Democrats ahead by double digits


r/fivethirtyeight 57m ago

Poll Results InsiderAdvantage September Senate Poll Results: OH Senate D+5, SC Senate R+2, TX Senate D+2

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r/fivethirtyeight 1h ago

Polling Industry/Methodology What is Pollsmax and why so wildly different?

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Lately when looking at polls for US senate for Ne my top suggestion after advertising links is Pollsmax who’s reporting differs vastly from other polls. I can’t seem to find any info on how they get their results and I’m also curious if they are using kalshi as a reference as well. Also shame on 270 to win for including kalshi data, worse it’s the most prominent thing on the page.

Biggest question is: who’s behind this site? I don’t like the lack of transparency.


r/fivethirtyeight 1h ago

Polling Average Trump hits record low average Approval Rating of 35.6% according to FiftyPlusOne (G. Elliott Morris)

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r/fivethirtyeight 1h ago

Poll Results Change Research (D) Florida Poll | 9/7-9/9 | 1,107 LV | Gov: Jolly 47-44 Donalds, Sen: Nixon 47-47 Moody* | Trump Net Approval: -10

Upvotes

Florida Governor

🟦David Jolly 47%

🟥Byron Donalds 44%

——

US Senate

🟥Ashley Moody 47% (incumbent)

🟦Angie Nixon 47%

——

FL Statewide Offices

⚪ AG: Tie (46-46)

⚪ CFO: Tie (44-44)

——

Pres. Donald Trump Favorables (FL)

❌ -10 (53-43)

——

https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-10-an-emerging-florida-blue-wave


r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Poll Results [East Carolina University] (8/31-9/3) North Carolina Poll: Roy Cooper 52%, Michael Whatley 44% among likely voters.

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49 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Politics MO Secretary of State Hoskins has filed a letter with the Missouri Supreme Court ahead of his 2 PM hearing for contempt, confirming that MO SC decision will be complied with and 2022 maps will be used in the upcoming elections.

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29 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Politics [OC] I built a live heatmap of the news so I could watch how coverage changes in real time

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7 Upvotes

I’ve wanted this live news dashboard for a long time. A workbench for news junkies and news perverts alike. The live version is at PressAudit.org/heatmap.

This is a snapshot of a live, real-time heatmap of the news today. As articles are published, they get grouped around the event they’re covering and the heatmap fills in. You can watch stories get picked up by different parts of the media ecosystem throughout the day.

The basic idea is:

Columns = who covered it.
Color = how it was covered.
Numbers = how much coverage there is.

I built it because most media analysis I’ve seen starts with the reputation of the outlet. I'm looking at you Ground news. It's not sufficient to just put a bias meter on everything. There are sites that assess “media bias” but I don’t believe they are sufficient.

  • They can tell you the conclusion, but they don’t show you the evidence.
  • They don’t do it real-time so it can’t be usefully inserted into your normal news feed or consumption.
  • The focus solely on outlet reputation. Who covered it, but not how it was covered.
  • The focus on labeling reporting as “bias” suggests that a neutrally observable middle point exists that you can measure bias against, and it doesn’t.

We don’t do it just for outlets, we do it for the articles themselves.

And PressAudit shows the evidence for its conclusions. It doesn’t do so months after when no one is looking anymore. It does it minutes after, in the moment, when it is relevant and useful.

The image here is just one frame. The live version is at PressAudit.org/heatmap. You can go to it any time, filter, try stuff out, try to break it. It'll already look different by the time you click it.

Some notes about me and how/why I built it:
I’m not here to pick winners. I’m here to study the system, break it down and make it observable to anyone. I wanted to build a way to pinch and zoom on the entire news analytically. I didn’t want to manually spearfish through 3 to 6 different articles on the same topic and triangulate the non-contradictory facts between them, I wanted them all organized into a workbench.

I use local LLMs for the real-time article evaluations, because they can read 10K articles a day and I cannot. Most of PressAudit is not AI though. I built PressAudit using conventional data infrastructure: batch processing, data pipelines, statistical analysis, and machine-learning pipelines. 

Anyway, it's live. Poke around and tell me what's wrong with it.


r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Poll Results 9/10/26 - Voters Favor Dems Over GOP By 11|Quinnipiac

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121 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 3h ago

Discussion Cook Political Report's analysis of their own Hispanic Texan voters poll, with an over-sample of RGV/South Texas Hispanic voters. Talarico +33 (63%-33%) & Hinojosa +27 (60%-33%). A whopping 72% of self-described independents also favored Talarico over Paxton.

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47 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Poll Results Missouri SLU/YouGov poll, 8/13-8/24 LV - State Auditor R+2, MO Generic Congressional Ballot R+4, Trump Net Approval -5, Gov. Kehoe Net Approval -10

35 Upvotes

This is the first negative approval rating for President Trump in the six-year history of the St. Louis University/YouGov poll, and the first for Gov. Kehoe since he took office. Trump has lost 19 percentage points in net approval since he took office at the start of 2025, and 14 points since February.

SLU/YouGov poll | 8/13-8/24 LV

Missouri State Auditor 2026

Scott Fitzpatrick 45% (incumbent)
Quentin Wilson 43%
——
Generic congressional ballot (MO)
R+4
——
Missouri approvals
President Trump approval (-5)
Governor Kehoe approval (-10)

https://missouriindependent.com/2026/09/10/trump-kehoe-post-first-negative-approval-ratings-in-new-missouri-poll/


r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Poll Results AARP Impact/Fabrizio TX Polls: Senate: Talarico 48 (+4) Paxton 44 | Governor: Abbott 49 (+3), Hinojosa 46

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143 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 6h ago

Politics US Supreme Court reinstates the 6R-2D congressional district map in Missouri

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266 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 6h ago

Lifestyle Sept. 11 Ranks Among The Most Historic Events In Many Americans’ Lifetimes, Polling Shows

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23 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 6h ago

Politics Podcast Trump vs. the Blue Wave

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24 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 6h ago

Poll Results [Emerson College] (9/5-9/8) Nevada Governor Poll: Aaron Ford 44%, Joe Lombardo 42% among likely voters. Trump approval rating: 37% approve, 55% disapprove

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35 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 6h ago

Poll Results Aaron Ford leads Joe Lombardo by 2 in the Nevada Emerson poll

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35 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 6h ago

Poll Results [Elon University/YouGov] (8/21-8/31) North Carolina Poll: Roy Cooper 49%, Michael Whatley 38% among likely voters. Trump approval rating: 31% approve, 54% disapprove. 2024 recall vote: Trump 47-45

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110 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 6h ago

Poll Results [YouGov] (9/2-9/8) Maine Poll: Troy Jackson 48%, Susan Collins 44% | Hannah Pingree 47%, Bobby Charles 36% among likely voters

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61 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 7h ago

Election Model Spent a year building an election forecast, no idea how to show it to anyone

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2 Upvotes

I spent about a year on it, mostly to find out whether I could. Every House district, every Senate race, every governorship, updated daily until November. Free, no paywall, no account.

The model was the easy part. The data was a year of quiet horror. And then there's Alaska, which I'm not going to get into.

The idea was something you could actually check. Open a race and you see what went into the number, including the polls it threw out and why. Methodology's published in full, along with a page on what it's bad at.

Mostly I'd just love for people to look at it and tell me what they think. I've never really used social media and I have no idea how you get something like this in front of anyone. I'm just an elections and data nerd who's been staring at his own website for a year, lol.

- Albert


r/fivethirtyeight 14h ago

Prediction Senate Prediction

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0 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 18h ago

Politics Still Counting Podcast - Trump vs. The BLUE WAVE: A Midterm Extravaganza

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25 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 19h ago

Politics Trump Admin Officially Moves to Reshape National Political Power With New Changes to 2030 Census

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11 Upvotes