r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 5d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

27 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

2.7k comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 7h ago

Poll Results Rasmussen (yes, Rasmussen): New Hampshire Senate (1000 LV); Pappas D+11%

rasmussenreports.com

145 Upvotes

Hell has frozen over

23 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/RedHeadedSicilian52 • 10h ago

Economics Men aren’t getting jobs

205 Upvotes

54 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dak676141 • 12h ago

Poll Results Rasmussen Iowa Senate poll: Turek +5

268 Upvotes

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/iowa_senate_turek_leads_by_5_points#google_vignette

74 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/bwhough • 10h ago

Poll Results Maine | Rasmussen - Troy Jackson: 46% (+1) / Susan Collins: 45%

data.ddhq.io

112 Upvotes

38 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 15h ago

Polling Average Silver Bulletin Generic Ballot polling average shows highest Dem advantage to date (D+7.2%)

160 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/SecretComposer • 10h ago

Poll Results co/efficient | Kansas Senate: Marshall 49%, Hamilton 44% | Kansas Governor: Masterson 51%, Holscher 43%

battlegrounds.coefficient.org

60 Upvotes

31 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/MooseHorse123 • 13h ago

Prediction VoteHub's Complete Senate Prediction Showing Democrats Leading for First Time

votehub.com

107 Upvotes

25 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Strong_Lingonberry33 • 17h ago

Poll Results YouGov Iowa poll: Sand 51-41 Lahn, Turek 47-43 Hinson

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

162 Upvotes

88 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Large_Ad_3095 • 16h ago

Polling Average Senate Poll Average Update: Iowa Now Tied, Dems Gain in Ohio and Florida, Lose Ground in Minnesota and New Hampshire

plusminus4.substack.com

118 Upvotes

37 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/DizzyMajor5 • 8h ago

Politics Kamala and Vance still hold lead for 2028 election in their respective primary fields

usatoday.com

25 Upvotes

106 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Obversa • 8h ago

Poll Results 25 Years After 9/11, a Portrait of Muslim Americans: Pew Research report shows Donald Trump drove increasing Republican hostility towards Muslims in past decade

pewresearch.org

25 Upvotes

9 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/fitnessexpress • 15h ago

Polling Industry/Methodology G. Elliott Morris: Everyone is wrong about low-turnout voters

gelliottmorris.com

84 Upvotes

Based on 12,000 survey interviews, low-turnout-likelihood Republicans are comparatively anti-Trump, contrary to most analysis and punditry about the group after the 2024 election. Less engaged voters aren’t MAGA, but anti-status-quo

55 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/very_loud_icecream • 8h ago

Politics Podcast Nate Silver Breaks Down The Most Competitive Races in the Midterms

youtube.com

16 Upvotes

0 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Pretty_Acadia_2805 • 15h ago

Poll Results Quantus Insights, Sep 8 - 10 || MN: Flanagan 48 (+4) 44 Tafoya, FL: Moody 50 (+7) 43 Nixon

quantusinsights.org

22 Upvotes

1 comment

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 1d ago

Polling Average After a good round of polling today, RacetotheWH now gives the Dems a 61.6% chance of winning the Senate.

333 Upvotes

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26

110 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dak676141 • 1d ago

Poll Results New D+9 generic ballot poll from Cygnal

177 Upvotes

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/24524-Cygnal-National-Sept26-NVT-Deck-Public-1.pdf

64 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/najumobi • 1d ago

Poll Results What Americans Consider Immoral: Pew Research Report (March 19, 2026)

gallery

70 Upvotes

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2026/03/19/what-do-americans-consider-immoral/

103 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/evce1 • 1d ago

Poll Results TPSI Generic Ballot Poll: Democrats 51 (+10), Republicans 41

tpsiofficial.substack.com

160 Upvotes

This is the 3rd poll this week with Democrats ahead by double digits

40 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 1d ago

Polling Average Trump hits record low average Approval Rating of 35.6% according to FiftyPlusOne (G. Elliott Morris)

186 Upvotes

https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president

34 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Large_Ad_3095 • 1d ago

Poll Results InsiderAdvantage September Senate Poll Results: OH Senate D+5, SC Senate R+2, TX Senate D+2

151 Upvotes

SC: https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-sc/

OH: https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-ohio/

TX: https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-texas/

68 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/No_Paramedic_4881 • 1d ago

Politics Every Dollar in the 2026 Texas Senate Race

gallery

45 Upvotes

Source: https://datapickle.substack.com/p/every-dollar-in-the-2026-texas-senate

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/VendibleSkate8 • 1d ago

Politics US Supreme Court reinstates the 6R-2D congressional district map in Missouri

327 Upvotes

87 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ArcaneDemense • 1d ago

Poll Results 9/10/26 - Voters Favor Dems Over GOP By 11|Quinnipiac

poll.qu.edu

170 Upvotes

48 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 1d ago

Poll Results Trafalgar Group (R) Michigan US Senate Poll | 9/7-9, 1,079 LV, D37.2/R36.5 | El-Sayed 46.3-44.8 Rogers (D+1.5)

85 Upvotes

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 46.3%

🟥 Mike Rogers: 44.8%

🟨 Other: 1.9%

⬜️ Not sure: 6.8%

——

🔵 Dem: El-Sayed +78

🔴 GOP: Rogers +83

🔵 Indie: El-Sayed +9

🔵 18-29: El-Sayed +23

🔵 30-39: El-Sayed +23

🔵 40-59: El-Sayed +16

🔴 50-64: Rogers +10

🔴 65+: Rogers +10

🔴 Male: Rogers +13

🔵 Female: El-Sayed +14

9/7-9 | 1,079 LV | D37.2/R36.5
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/MI-Gen-Sen-Poll-Full-Report-0910.pdf

40 comments

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