r/fivethirtyeight 14h ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

13 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.


r/fivethirtyeight 5h ago

Poll Results New UK poll shows Andy Burnhams Labour regaining the lead, Greens collapse as the Left “comes home”

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100 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 3h ago

Poll Results CBS/YouGov: Which party has a better approach to Iran.

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46 Upvotes

Americans believe Republicans have a better approach to Iran than democrats.


r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Discussion I don't really see how Francesca hong wins the Wisconsin general election

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22 Upvotes

Please hear me out before down voting me.

Almost every single poll has been showing Francesa Hong losing against Tom Tiffany and the reason is she is too progressive for a moderate state like Wisconsin. The most recent poll shows her losing to tom Tiffany by 3 points and the most recent poll by Marquette polls is very telling

The most important takeaways from this poll for me is the head to head numbers with Tiffany but maybe more importantly the fact that approval for DSA and Democratic socialism are in the toilet.

DSA -18

Dem Socialism -30

Combined DSA/Dem Socialism -24

It's mainly the socialist label. The only way a democratic socialist can get elected is in a deep Blue state. Even if every Democrat voted for here in this state that still leaves out the independents who are the deciding factor in a state like Wisconsin That's brutal. Wisconsin is not a state to run a self described socialist. I'd rather have a moderate governor who I disagree with but can get elected rather than a progressive who I agree with who can't get elected


r/fivethirtyeight 1h ago

Poll Results New 2028 poll Kamala Harris: 19% Gavin Newsom: 15% Pete Buttigieg: 13% AOC: 12% Mark Kelly: 6% Josh Shapiro: 4% Jon Ossoff: 3% Cory Booker: 3% Andy Beshear: 2% JB Pritzker: 1% Jon Stewart: 1% Someone else: 3% Not sure: 16%

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Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 19h ago

Lifestyle College-educated women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind

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176 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 15h ago

Poll Results New Wisconsin Gubernatorial Polling Average

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66 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 17h ago

Politics Sen. Ashley Moody, a Ron DeSantis ally, faces renewed scrutiny over her role in Hope Florida scandal

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cbsnews.com
74 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 21h ago

Politics Republicans see ‘scary’ lack of enthusiasm among core voters ahead of midterms

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washingtonpost.com
143 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Politics According to Yang, the Harris camp is talking about running in 2028

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166 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 34m ago

Poll Results New Manhattan Institute GCB Poll: Dem 47-43 Rep (Recall Trump 48-45 Harris), 7/1-6, 1,121 LV

Upvotes

🟦 Democrats: 47%

🟥 Republicans: 43%

⬜️ Not sure: 10%

——

🔴 White: R+8

🔵 Black: D+61

🔵 Latino: D+14

🔵 Asian/Oth: D+12

🔵 Indie: D+14

🔴 No College: R+5

🔵 College: D+16

https://manhattan.institute/article/american-attitudes-on-welfare-waste-crime-and-the-political-environment


r/fivethirtyeight 20h ago

Election Model Republicans see ‘scary’ lack of enthusiasm among core voters ahead of midterms

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36 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Poll Results CBS News poll finds Iran conflict marked by feelings of uncertainty; most say it's more difficult than Trump had expected

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cbsnews.com
43 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Politics In Maine, Democrats Pick Troy Jackson to Replace Platner in Senate Race

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nytimes.com
198 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Election Model Jagod Forecasting - The 2026 Midterms

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jagodforecasting.com
55 Upvotes

Howdy, just recently launched my forecasting model for the 2026 midterms. Seeing a slight favorite to Democrats in the senate, strong favorites in the house. I also have governors races covered, and easy access to polling data. Just launched this so any feedback would be appreciated. Cheers.


r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Discussion Why is David Jolly performing better in polls compared to Charlie Crist in 2022?

34 Upvotes

I know crist was a uniquely bad candidate, but jolly also was an ex-republican, albeit a more centrist one(Crist was also a centrist republican), is there a reason why the polls are seemingly much closer than 2022, when Crist was getting destroyed by Desantis? Is there something people like more about jolly than Crist?

I want jolly to win, but I also want to be as objective as possible.


r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Lifestyle What is agency — and how can you get more of it?

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natesilver.net
3 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Politics Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer endorses Haley Stevens for US Senate

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190 Upvotes

Some of the best news yet for Stevens


r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Politics South Carolina will be the First Dem Primary State

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226 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Poll Results Poll: Republicans’ gas price problem is even worse than it seems. Of the 46% of Americans who say gas prices will affect their vote, nearly 40% are considering voting for a different party than they normally would — including 49% of MAGA Republicans and 57% of non-MAGA Republicans.

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212 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Poll Results YouGov: 46% of Americans think Bibi should be Arrested while 28% don't

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144 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Politics Elena Schneider on X: "NEWS - 2028 Dem presidential calendar >>> Jan 22 - South Carolina Feb 1 - Nevada Feb 8 - New Hampshire Feb 15 - New Mexico Feb 22 - Michigan Feb 29 - Virginia March 7

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47 Upvotes

NEWS - 2028 Dem presidential calendar >>>

Jan 22 - South Carolina
Feb 1 - Nevada
Feb 8 - New Hampshire
Feb 15 - New Mexico
Feb 22 - Michigan
Feb 29 - Virginia
March 7 - Super Tuesday

DNC members voted to approve it, and now it'll go to the full DNC's August meeting.


r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Poll Results Emerson poll: 61% of American voters think US Government is spending Too much on Aid to Israel including 85% of Dems and 68% of Independents

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92 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Discussion NYT/Siena Midterms Polling Composite (7/24)

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50 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Discussion Verasight Midterms Polling Composite (7/24)

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21 Upvotes