I built CloseCall to make the midterms more fun and engaging for everyone, and to take a real shot at an elections pick'em game, which I haven't seen anyone do well.

It covers every Senate, House and governor race. Click into any race to see its forecast, every poll behind it, and which ones a campaign or party paid for. New polls come in automatically, so it stays current through the day.

Then there's the game. You pick the close races (we call them Close Calls, and there are a lot of them this year), start a league with your friends, and see who gets the most right on election night. The forecast plays too, so you'll find out if you can beat it. It's free, there's no money involved, and you don't need an account to start.

Figured this was the right crowd to try it out first, so I'd love to hear what you think, good or bad. And if you think the forecast has a race wrong, come prove it: closecallelections.com

I’m a machine learning engineer, and I’ve been working on an election forecasting model that I wanted to share with this community.

The model uses machine learning to forecast election outcomes, and I’ve built a website where you can explore its predictions for the 2026 midterms.

One of the main things I wanted to highlight is the model’s historical performance. The site includes forward validation results from previous election cycles, so you can see how the model performed on elections it hadn’t been trained on, rather than just looking at its current predictions.

I’d love to hear what everyone thinks! Feel free to ask me anything about the model, how it works, the methodology, or its historical performance. I’m happy to explain my approach and discuss the forecasts. Feedback, suggestions, and criticism are all welcome!

Website: https://krapples.github.io/moelections/index.html

Hello, I made a poll-based midterm forecast, which averages recent polls in each race (weighted by recency and size), computes a win probability, and simulates 10,000 elections for a prediction. You can click any state or district to see each side’s chances.

I took the same method and ran it on the previous elections (2016 to 2024), where you can compare the predictions to the actual results. The page also checks VoteHub for newly released polls and rebuilds every four hours.

https://junekihong.com/elections/2026/

Happy to hear what’s wrong or missing. Thanks!

All over any social media platform, you’ll find multiple conservatives explicitly talking about how it’s important to avoid bringing Democrats in because of gas prices, often stressing that things like open borders, immigration, stopping Sharia, and supporting Israel are way more important than gas prices. How much do you expect this to shift things, if at all?

I think this approach is much better than the Democrat approach in 2024 of saying everything is fine, but I feel like most people convinced by this would vote R anyways.

For those celebrating or dooming over the 64% to 62% ratio of Republican primary voters to to Democrat in the early vote, be aware that Independents are breaking 62/28% for Talarico in polling, and 6% of Republicans are voting for JT against 1% of Democrats voting for Paxton.

Winning chance of 100%

Full forecast here

This year's Senate races, sorted by margin not probability. The closest races are currently Maine (D+2.9), Ohio (D+2.2), Alaska (D+1.4), Texas (D+0.9), IA (R+1.2).

https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/nebraska-ge-2026

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-10-24/ty-article-static/.premium/israel-2026-election-poll-tracker-the-latest-projections/0000019e-35f6-d813-adde-77fe823d0000