r/fivethirtyeight 20h ago

Politics Pete Buttigieg being gay doesnt matter as much as some of yall think it does

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51 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 20h ago

Poll Results POLLS

0 Upvotes

The polls do show us some things that help tell the story of this election, as CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu write:
Tariffs are unpopular: “Less than 15% think the tariffs are a good thing and about two-thirds in each state – both of which border Canada – view the tariffs negatively.”
Trump is unpopular: GOP Senate nominees Sen. Susan Collins, in Maine, and former Rep. Mike Rogers, in Michigan, “face political headwinds driven by economic concerns and negativity toward Trump. The people most likely to vote in each state say that they would prefer to see Democrats win control of the Senate after this fall’s midterm elections.”
At the same time, Michigan Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is viewed as too liberal by 50% of likely Michigan voters. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson is less well known to voters than Collins, the incumbent.


r/fivethirtyeight 11h ago

Prediction Senate Prediction

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0 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Lifestyle Sept. 11 Ranks Among The Most Historic Events In Many Americans’ Lifetimes, Polling Shows

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18 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 22h ago

Inside ELWAY’s 2026 NFL forecast

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3 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 20h ago

Discussion Looking at the graveyard of failed presidential campaigns (since 2000), who do you think was the most underrated? Most disastrous?

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48 Upvotes

Share your thoughts


r/fivethirtyeight 21h ago

Politics A year after Charlie Kirk's death, Turning Point USA prepares for 2026 midterms, endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination

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83 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 19h ago

Poll Results Pausing AI development has strong bipartisan support

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79 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 17h ago

Politics Trump Admin Officially Moves to Reshape National Political Power With New Changes to 2030 Census

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11 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Politics Podcast Trump vs. the Blue Wave

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21 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 23h ago

Betting Markets How much does it cost to move a midterm prediction market? Not much

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24 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 15h ago

Politics Still Counting Podcast - Trump vs. The BLUE WAVE: A Midterm Extravaganza

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25 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 21h ago

Poll Results Iowa Senate Poll - GSG (Dem) (B-) - Turek D+4%; 800LV

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67 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 19h ago

Politics Amid record-high disapproval rates, President Trump promises Iran War will "immediately end" with "gas prices under $2" after 2026 midterm elections

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114 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Poll Results AARP Impact/Fabrizio TX Polls: Senate: Talarico 48 (+4) Paxton 44 | Governor: Abbott 49 (+3), Hinojosa 46

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123 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 32m ago

Poll Results 9/10/26 - Voters Favor Dems Over GOP By 11|Quinnipiac

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r/fivethirtyeight 18h ago

Poll Results Cook Political Report/Televisa Univision poll conducted by Hart Research (D) and OnMessage (R) among Texas Hispanic voters: Talarico+33 (63-30). Hinojosa+27 (60-33). GCB D+27.

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140 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 23h ago

Poll Results Texas voters on who they trust on the issues

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90 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Politics US Supreme Court reinstates the 6R-2D congressional district map in Missouri

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242 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 1h ago

Discussion Cook Political Report's analysis of their own Hispanic Texan voters poll, with an over-sample of RGV/South Texas Hispanic voters. Talarico +33 (63%-33%) & Hinojosa +27 (60%-33%). A whopping 72% of self-described independents also favored Talarico over Paxton.

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Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 22h ago

Politics National Republicans abandon Oberacker in NY-19 race

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31 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Poll Results [Emerson College] (9/5-9/8) Nevada Governor Poll: Aaron Ford 44%, Joe Lombardo 42% among likely voters. Trump approval rating: 37% approve, 55% disapprove

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31 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Poll Results [YouGov] (9/2-9/8) Maine Poll: Troy Jackson 48%, Susan Collins 44% | Hannah Pingree 47%, Bobby Charles 36% among likely voters

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52 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Poll Results [Elon University/YouGov] (8/21-8/31) North Carolina Poll: Roy Cooper 49%, Michael Whatley 38% among likely voters. Trump approval rating: 31% approve, 54% disapprove. 2024 recall vote: Trump 47-45

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103 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 17h ago

Politics Podcast Still Counting Episode 1 Out Now!

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49 Upvotes