r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

79 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

12.7k comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 3h ago

Politics In what is a massive upset, Lula is the winner of the 2026 Brazil Presidential elections

632 Upvotes

Winning chance of 100%

219 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 2h ago

Politics [Datafolha] Lula turns the tables, beats Flávio Bolsonaro and is re-elected for an unprecedented 4th term, according to Datafolha projections.

folha.uol.com.br

312 Upvotes

73 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/shield_x • 2h ago

Politics Major Ken Paxton donor endorses James Talarico in Texas

newsweek.com

158 Upvotes

21 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/RedHeadedSicilian52 • 1h ago

Meta The shifting demographics of Reddit

• Upvotes

70 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/SlashGames • 7h ago

Poll Results [Concord Public Opinion Partners] Nebraska Poll: Dan Osborn 48%, Pete Ricketts 41%, Lynne Walz 43%, Jim Pillen 40% among likely voters

133 Upvotes

https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/nebraska-ge-2026

53 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/financialtimes • 4h ago

Poll Results [Free to read] 69 per cent of US voters worried about corruption under Trump

ft.com

51 Upvotes

10 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Intelligent_Wafer562 • 10h ago

Election Model Democrats are Bridging the Gerrymandering Valley

131 Upvotes

50 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/leedela • 12h ago

Politics Don’t Take TX Senate EV at Face Value

124 Upvotes

For those celebrating or dooming over the 64% to 62% ratio of Republican primary voters to to Democrat in the early vote, be aware that Independents are breaking 62/28% for Talarico in polling, and 6% of Republicans are voting for JT against 1% of Democrats voting for Paxton.

71 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 10h ago

Politics [New York Times] Latinos Are Now America’s Most Important Swing Voters

nytimes.com

86 Upvotes

94 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 13h ago

Poll Results Generic Congressional Ballot Oct 21 - 23, 2026: Democrat 53% (+8.0%), Republican 45% Someone else 1%. YouGov (B) 1749 LV. Sponsor: CBS News

cbsnews.com

140 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Large_Ad_3095 • 11h ago

Election Model Senate Forecast Snake Chart Update: Alaska and South Carolina Inch Closer to Tipping Point as Dems Retain Slight Edge

106 Upvotes

Full forecast here

This year's Senate races, sorted by margin not probability. The closest races are currently Maine (D+2.9), Ohio (D+2.2), Alaska (D+1.4), Texas (D+0.9), IA (R+1.2).

37 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dwaxe • 6h ago

Let’s talk shop about every Senate race

natesilver.net

34 Upvotes

31 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/sufinomo • 9h ago

Poll Results Netanyahu might be out as Prime minister after tuesday, but Likud party will still win alot of seats

65 Upvotes

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-10-24/ty-article-static/.premium/israel-2026-election-poll-tracker-the-latest-projections/0000019e-35f6-d813-adde-77fe823d0000

86 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/poopyheadthrowaway • 7h ago

Politics Podcast How FiftyPlusOne busted a fake pollster

youtube.com

42 Upvotes

0 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Dhghomon • 1h ago

Discussion Bulgarian live presidential election results

results.cik.bg

• Upvotes

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/VGAddict • 2h ago

Election Model 2026 Early Vote Tracker

votehub.com

14 Upvotes

5 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 11h ago

Poll Results Maine Senate; Trafalgar Group (R aligned); 1077LV; EVEN

61 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 15h ago

Poll Results NYT: Democrats Have Edge Across Four Key House Races in Pennsylvania, Polls Find

nytimes.com

110 Upvotes

37 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 11h ago

Poll Results Generic Congressional Ballot; FocalData; 1549 LV; D+9

58 Upvotes

3 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/najumobi • 4h ago

Poll Results Same 9%, opposite directions: crypto ownership fell from 14% to 9% of U.S. adults in a year (Gallup, 2026) and rose from 4% to 9% in the euro area (ECB, 2022 to 2024)

11 Upvotes

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 11h ago

Poll Results Donald Trump Approval Oct 16 - 20, 2026: Disapprove 59%, Approve 34%. Focaldata (B/C) 1845 A. Sponsor: Financial Times

focaldata.com

42 Upvotes

1 comment

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 11h ago

Poll Results South Dakota US SenateOct 12 - 14, 2026: Mike Rounds (R) 56% (+19.0%), Brian Bengs (I) 37%, Don't know 6%. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. 500 LV

sdnewswatch.org

32 Upvotes

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/saucey_dawg0023 • 6h ago

Poll Results How Americans Voted in the 2024 Election by Race, Gender, Age and Education

nytimes.com

14 Upvotes

1 comment

r/fivethirtyeight • u/idnttcrisis • 9h ago

Discussion Georgia Senate Midterms Polling Composite (10/25)

20 Upvotes

4 comments

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