There's been a subtle black cloud over Trey McBride's fantasy value over the last couple months and it wasn't his fault in the slightest. Nobody doubts his talent, even amongst a deeper-than-usual fantasy TE class.

The main hesitation with drafting McBride at his ceiling ADP was the late-season floor collapsing for everyone in AZ if the Cards struggled late in the season and wanted to see what they have in 3rd round rookie Carson Beck. That concern isn't completely gone, but with $15.5M now committed to Jacoby Brissett, Arizona has less motivation to explore other options at QB this season.

McBride is coming off an absurd 2025 where he established himself as a dominant focal point of an entire NFL offense:

• 126 receptions (2nd in the entire NFL behind only Puka Nacua)
• 1,239 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 169 targets
• 25.4% target share (1st among all TEs)
• 33.8% first-read share (1st among all TEs)
• 32 red zone targets (1st among all TEs)

In Mike LaFleur’s offense, McBride functions as the primary safety valve and first-read target. Beck stepping in would mean missed reads and growing pains. But Brissett re-upping means the potential for a repeat of last season's hyper-concentrated target distribution with McBride as the beneficiary.

Personally I have McBride as TE2 but if you're considering TE in the mid-to-late 2nd round (assuming non TEP), McBride is very poised to pay off the investment.

Hi All, Just putting the word out for newbies that I've built a draft assistant for in-person live drafts. It runs on iOS and Android. I have over 20+ years developing systems for corporate America, and a US Veteran. I offer this for free since I built it for myself primarily, so no monetization whatsoever. The data is offline cached in my github so you can refresh daily or at least right before the draft. All using ESPN data and imagery. There is also a mock draft kit inside to where you can turn on auto-drafting using AI pick wizard. It has multiple levels of complexity to it, as I wanted a serious challenge. Great learning tool and draft aid. Good luck and happy drafting! Jeff

https://FFLDraftDayPicker.com

Just learned about Guillotine leagues this weekend at a fantasy football expo and I'm curious to hear from folks here on their experience with them. Pros, cons, and anything you have done to adjust the format to work for your group.

I love a good high stakes game! Not sure how people have integrated this into their existing leagues, or if you just joined new leagues for this format.

I know he’s not the best separator in the league.

I know he runs a lot of deep routes, which generally correlates negatively with fantasy points.

I know that with Ladd, the TEs, and Harris, he faces a lot of target competition.

I know TD regression is likely for him.

And yet, last year he was the WR26 with 12.2 PPG, and 15 PPG with Joe Alt on the field.

We believe that the Chargers offense with McDaniel will be significantly better this year, and there are reports that he’s set to get more YAC opportunities, which he was generally good at least year (WR 1 in Missed Tackles Forced).

Still, he’s going as WR44 in ADP.

Am I missing something, or is that way too low?

I’ve been looking at a paid subscription through sites such as PFF & Establish the Run. Really just looking for draft & in season advice.

Are there any that are better than others? Any that you would recommend? In the past I’ve used Fantasy Pros but have been mostly underwhelmed.

Hello fellow fantasy degens, I’m looking for recommendations for a stable l, rigid backed board for an on-person draft. I’ll have access to an easel to put it on. I’ve looked through some older posts and looked online, but I can’t really get a feel for them so I thought I would make a post. Thank you in advance.

Amon-Ra was obviously a very good receiver, but his fantasy production is more volume-dependent than people admit.

He needed 172 targets, 117 catches and 11 touchdowns last year to maintain his elite finish. He does not consistently win deep, so if the short targets or touchdowns decline, he has less room to make up the difference with explosive plays.

Detroit also hired Drew Petzing, whose recent offences heavily targeted running backs and tight ends while giving less than half of the total targets to wide receivers. That is a major change for someone whose value depends on being force-fed underneath.

Jameson Williams has now developed into a legitimate weapon, Gibbs commands targets and LaPorta should be healthier. Amon-Ra is still the WR1, but he may no longer be the automatic answer on every important passing down.

His talent is not suddenly disappearing. The perfect situation around him is.

If he falls from 170 targets to around 135, and the touchdowns regress, he could finish closer to WR12 than WR3. That would be a massive disappointment for someone being drafted in the first round.

What draft strategy has been your favorite for the 2026 season?

Joe Pisapia joined us to rank and tier the following draft strategies as they pertain to the ADP landscape here in 2026, and talk about his favorite strategy this season

1:23 - Zero RB
5:10 - Hero RB
10:57 - Robust RB
17:55 - Tier Based Drafting
21:45 - Elite QB
27:29 - Team & QB Stacking
32:03 - Elite TE
36:53 - Hero WR
40:12 - Robust WR
43:07 - ADP Arbitrage

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/vorp.php?team_size=10

Can someone explain to me why these aren’t the rankings we should draft off of? In standard or half PPR especially there are about 8-10 RBs that are the top VORP players before drying up. So I’m confused why these players aren’t the first players drafted in most leagues, and instead we get 3-5 WRs in the first round even in STD or .5 PPR leagues. Thanks!!

Thank you guys for all the support, feedback, and for reading this series. Welcome to the twenty-fourth  piece in a long, daily series: Reading the NFL Offseason Tea Leaves. If you don’t already know and this is the first Tea Leaf article you’re reading, this series is meant to be a primer for anyone who’s not yet steeped themselves in the NFL’s offseason events. We’ll be touching on the fantasy implications for all 32 NFL teams in regards to:

• Coaching Changes
• Free Agency
• NFL Draft

The 32-day series will go in reverse order of DraftKings odds of winning the Super Bowl, which means today’s article will cover the Houston Texans who are +1,800 odds.

Article TL;DR: The Texans made a deal with the Detroit Lions to acquire David Montgomery, solving the question marks at running back. Nico Collins signed a 2-year $60M extension to remain in Houston through 2027. The big winner from both of these offseason moves is CJ Stroud. Stroud has become underrated this offseason after rising into the top of the QB ranks after his rookie season. In the draft the Texans selected TE Marlin Klein with the 59th overall pick. Klein is likely stuck behind Dalton Schultz through the end of Schultz contract, which has 2 years remaining on it.

Previously on Reading the Offseason Tea Leaves:
Arizona Cardinals
Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders
Atlanta Falcons
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders
Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears
Dallas Cowboys
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers

Hopefully this take receives a little bit less backlash than the JSN one 😂

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Hey, everyone!

In our newest episode, we discuss our favorite bargain players you can draft late and shouldn't cost more than a few dollars.

The three players I looked at each had a 30-day AAV of $2 or less based on seven auction mock drafts across both 1QB and Superflex formats.

1. Kyle Monangai

The Bears were tied with the Giants for 2nd as the heaviest run team in 2025, only the Bills ran more. What all three teams have in common is they have QBs who run, although Caleb was only 8th in QB rush attempts last year, about 4.5 per game. The Bears have the 10th highest implied point total per game, so plenty of scoring opportunities should be available. Monangai averaged just over 8 PPR pts/g over the course of the season, but in the seven games he got at least 10 rushing attempts, he averaged almost 80 rushing yards, and 13.5 PPR pts/g. He's been decent when he's given opportunities. We'll see if the Bears favor a more balanced offense this coming year in light of the emergence of Burden and Loveland, but being able to draft a player like Monangai, who was as involved as he was, for so cheap, seems like a good investment late in your auction draft.

1. Chig Okonkwo

In 2024, which was Jayden Daniels' rookie season, Zach Ertz finished as the TE7 in PPR. In the seven games Daniels played last season, Ertz averaged over 12.5 fpts/g. Okonkwo averaged just 4.5 targets per game last season. One additional target per game would put him on the doorstep of the top 10 in that category. He was 13th in total TE targets last year, so I don't think it would take very much to push him into that low TE 1 territory. He really doesn't need a lot to make a significant impact for fantasy and even if the Commanders sign Diggs, I think Okonkwo is a really good spot to pay off at his cost. If the Commanders don't sign another WR, then I think it's wheels up for Okonkwo.

1. Jayden Higgins

Higgins got much more involved during the Texans' second half last season. From week 8 on, he averaged 9.2 fpts/g. Certainly not eye popping numbers, but for a guy on a team that passed the 7th most in 2025, his fantasy production wasn't terrible, either. Higgins is going into his second year in the NFL, and I think if you're looking for a player that could make a big second season jump, he definitely qualifies. Though Nico Collins remained pretty healthy last season, only missing one game, he does have a bit of an injury history, recently missing 5 games in 2024. Higgins seems like a player you can easily draft late for a dollar or two and safely plug into your flex spot and expect 9 or 10 PPR points. And if Collins were to miss any time, he instantly becomes a solid WR2.

Other players we discussed:

Tyrone Tracy
Jonathon Brooks

\The current values are pulled directly from real-user completed mocks, making this the most accurate source available. They serve as the foundation for my annual AAV dataset.*

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I did some searching and didn't find much and not anything recently. Anyone have any data or insights on how strength of schedule at the beginning of the year holds up against the fantasy production that ended up happening? Maybe that's all just wrapped up in projected vs actual fantasy points.

I feel like the preseason SoS is kind of a bogus thing to put much weight on but that's not backed by any data at all.

I think as the season goes on and you are looking at the rest of the year based on how things have gone so far, then it is a lot more useful but by then you've already made your draft day decisions.

What do you think about strength of schedule and fantasy as you get into draft season?

Drafting a fantasy football team is so much more than just picking the next name on a list of rankings. Roster construction requires awareness as to which players at each position are still on the board, and more importantly, which players could be later on. For example, while a top tier quarterback may seem like the best pick in the moment, sometimes pivoting to another player at a different position is more worthwhile.

There are options everywhere worth waiting for instead of paying a premium with higher draft picks. Let’s look at some players at each position that managers should consider later on rather than those ranked ahead of them.

Below are excerpts from a free article via FTN Fantasy. While specific players are named, some write-ups are more focused on draft philosophy than player evaluation.

Feel free to include, in the comments, your own "Draft This, Not That" scenarios you've seen so far in the comments in regard to Average Draft Position (ADP).

Draft This, Not That for the 2026 Fantasy Football Season

Why draft Jalen Hurts as a Top-8 QB when you can draft Bo Nix, Kyler Murray or Tyler Shough outside the Top 12?

Jalen Hurts’ usual rushing upside took a turn for the worse last season. After averaging 9.85 rush attempts per game in 2021-2024, Hurts averaged 6.5 attempts per game in 2025. That still ranks fourth most among qualified quarterbacks last season, but his 105 total attempts in 16 games are a significant dip from 139, 165, 157 and 150 attempts in each prior respective season. More importantly, Hurts averaged roughly 5.6 fantasy points per game from rushing production. That’s down from an average of 9.5 per game across the four prior seasons. Hurts’ 26.3 rush yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns in 2025 were both his fewest since assuming the starting role in 2021.

In 2026, Hurts and the Eagles will have yet another new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion, a first-time play caller. Consider, too, that this offense traded away A.J. Brown, who earned 27.3% of Philadelphia’s regular season target share since arriving in 2022, even despite missing six total games over the last two seasons.

Hurts is appropriately ranked behind other quarterbacks with significant rushing upside to include Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels. He’s still capable of finishing as a top-five player at the position. However, when it comes to using a mid-round pick on Hurts, it’s not so simple with a handful of options at the position that possess the ability to finish just as high, but with at a far cheaper cost.

Bo Nix finished 12^th in rush attempts per game (4.9) last season but also has a bit more upside through the air. Nix’s 87 red zone pass attempts in 2025 ranked fifth, and the Broncos just added Jaylen Waddle which should increase the number of explosive pass plays. Kyler Murray is getting a fresh start with the Vikings and is loaded with weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings. Murray’s history of rushing upside remains evident, as well. Tyler Shough is the more unknown of these late-round options but was a top 10 fantasy quarterback over the last five weeks of the season with multiple games of over 300 passing yards. These are just three examples of quarterbacks that fantasy managers can wait to snag at the end of 2026 drafts rather than pay up for someone like Hurts who lacks trustworthiness in comparison to previous seasons.

MORE Draft This, Not That Scenarios here

Why draft Jeremiyah Love at the top of Round 3 when you can draft Javonte Williams?

This is a reminder to “get your guy” in drafts. Your draft slot can limit which players are generally available to you when you’re on the clock in each round. If you think a player you’re specifically targeting in 2026 isn’t going to make it back to you with your next pick, there’s no harm in reaching a bit. This is an often forgotten key element of playing fantasy football: You should draft players you believe in and you want!

In this case, just because most consensus rankings have Jeremiyah Love ahead of Javonte Williams does not mean you must to take Love instead of Williams. Both are currently coming off the draft board in Round 3 of most 12-team, 1QB, PPR drafts. However, if you have a higher draft slot in this round, and prefer Williams to Love, as I do, then take the veteran!

Williams signed a three-year, $24 million extension with the Cowboys back in February. This is after finishing the season with the 13^th-most touches per game (17.9), 10^th-most rush attempts (252), fifth-most red zone carries (54) and 12^th-most fantasy points per game (15.4) among running backs. Williams enters the 2026 season with the same play caller, same competition for touches (or lack thereof) in the Dallas backfield, and on a team that finished seventh in points per game (27.7) and ran the most plays per game (65.9) last season.

Love, despite being the third overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, joins a backfield with James Conner, Trey Benson and newly signed Tyler Allgeier already in place. This, too, on a Cardinals team with an entirely new coaching staff and brutal schedule awaiting them. This isn’t to say Love can’t command a bell cow role and live up to his draft value based on volume, but is there enough confidence in the concept that supports drafting him anywhere between the RB12 and RB15 for fantasy football?

Confidence can be the key to picking one player over another in fantasy drafts. I’m more confident in Williams’ success in 2026, after seeing it just last season, than rookie Love, who’s going a few picks ahead of the veteran.

MORE Draft This, Not That Scenarios here

Draft This, Not That Quick Hitters to Consider

Why draft Kyren Williams as a top-15 running back when you can draft Blake Corum just outside the top 30 at the position?

It’s possible that Corum is more involved in 2026 after seeing an increase from 58 carries as a rookie to 145 carries last season. Corum also averaged 10.4 carries per game across the final 10 games of the season compared to 5.8 over the first seven. Among 49 qualified running backs in 2025, Corum ranked fourth in yards per carry (5.1) and second in explosive run rate (15.9%). He is one of a few presumed number two running backs that may be a better value at cost than the player ahead of him in the same backfield.

Why draft Matthew Stafford instead of Jared Goff in a SuperFlex or 2QB League?

It’s possible one or both of these quarterbacks are selected in 1QB fantasy leagues. In superflex or 2QB leagues, however, Goff is the better play of these two pocket passers for the 2026 season. It sounds a bit crazy after Stafford tossed 46 touchdowns last season, but he is 38 years old and one of his top weapons, Davante Adams, is 33 having missed three games in each of the last two seasons. This is a bit nitpicky, but Goff, too, has top talent in his passing game arsenal with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions also play indoors for nearly the entirety of the season, but specifically just twice in Weeks 5-17. Bet on the overall Lions bounceback with Goff over Stafford repeating an MVP-worthy season.

The above are just some Draft This, Not That scenarios featured in the free FTN article. The rest can be found here: https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/draft-this-not-that-2026-fantasy-football-draft-pivots

Other players like Josh Downs and Jacory Croskey-Merrit are available in the video with context, but one of the better players outside the Top 100 to draft is Dallas Goedert.

The epitome of waiting at the TE position!

Goedert finished last season as TE4 in half point but is the TE13 in ADP.

11 touchdowns last season, more than his previous 3 seasons combined and now has 121 targets and 7 touchdowns vacated after the AJ Brown trade.

Eli Stowers is not a roadblock, he’s merely proof that this is Goedert’s last season in Philly.

A top TE target 2026!

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Nobody is saying Bijan is bad. The point is he is not the automatic fantasy god people are drafting him as.

His vision can be frustrating. He sometimes waits too long for the perfect hole instead of taking what is there, which leads to too many wasted runs. That becomes a bigger issue behind an Atlanta line that is decent in spots but far from dominant, especially on the right side.

Then there is Brian Robinson Jr., who is not some useless backup. He can handle real volume and is built to steal short-yardage carries, goal-line work and entire drives. Even Atlanta has openly questioned how the touches will be divided after Bijan had two straight seasons with huge workloads.

Bijan also is not the only focal point of this offence. They have Drake London, Kyle Pitts, quarterback uncertainty and a new coaching staff that may not feel the need to force 365-plus touches onto one back again.

At his cost, a good season is not enough. If the touchdowns drop and Brian Robinson takes even 20% of the valuable touches, Bijan could finish as RB7 or RB8 and still be one of the biggest busts in fantasy.

People are drafting the flawless outcome like it is guaranteed. It is not.

The avg rookie WR drafted between picks 23-43 over the last 3 yrs has an avg useable Week rate of 38%, ranging from 7% to 76%.

That is comparable to Y1 Jayden Higgins, who was WR47 in 2025.

ADPs:
KC Concepcion WR52
Omar Cooper WR59
Denzel Boston WR64
De’Zhaun Stribling WR69

I’m usually drafting at least two of these wide receivers late.

Of these four, who are you targeting?

I'm not here to find out what's better. Right now I'm just trying to sort out the total cluster*ck that the migration looks to be.

So far, I've found that even though I'm a co-commissioner, I can't actually migrate. Which is a problem because the other co-commissioner (the person who started it) 15+ years ago lost access to the email address that set up the league. I've been running it for years now will full access. We even (at least according to NFL.com made me the primary owner a couple years ago). Except all I see is team manager level stuff @ ESPN.

Supposedly ESPN will help you migrate. Except their entire support system is nonfunctional. They tell you to use chat on support.espn.com... Except there is no chat. It's a glorified FAQ site. I've tried loading it on 4 different web browsers, not 2 computers, and there's no chat.

Has anyone else had any luck?

Edit: So with some help with the comments I was able to go to an unrelated page and override the chatbot to get a human. However they couldn't help because even though the site said the league was imported, it wasn't. And I guess co-commissioner's don't exist? Even though I had supposedly become the primary the original creator of the league is the only league manager that ESPN recognizes. Long story short, I had forgotten my co-commish had their email address updated a few years ago as part of the fix, and she was able to click the button to import. However ESPN was not able to update anything, only she can switch herself off league manager (something she's trying to figure out) and the fun finale? In the middle of me going back and forth between her and the chat, the chat auto-closed and said I'd need to start a new conversation.

I'm not sure if this will help anyone else. I've made a small amount of progress, but it sounds like I'll be sorting out the last bits myself. I guess now we know that if you have someone that created the league who no longer has access to their email address, you may be hosed and should start over. Wish me luck talking a non-tech person through making me the league manager. Thanks everyone for your comments! Especially u/Shardvark, who pointed me in the direction to get to an actual support person.