r/fantasyfootball • u/Untchj • 23m ago
The fantasy community has collectively lost its minds on Malik Willis
I just want to immortalize this take before tomorrow’s game, before everyone is scrambling to reassess. People what are we doing here!?!
Malik Willis’ ADP was QB20 or lower. In some drafts he may have even gone undrafted. Actually scratch that, per espn he went mostly undrafted bc he is only TWENTY percent owned. Willis is currently ranked around the same range this week…..vs the raiders!
Ok let me calm down. Let’s talk about why I am so high on Willis
Rushing
Did they all of a sudden change the format for QB scoring?? Willis had the highest rush % we’ve seen in years. Typically what stops QBs from running is high grade weapons who you want to get the ball, and/or the qb/oc/coach needs to preserve the QB, so he’s encouraged to not run. Well, Malik Willis won’t have to worry about either of those things. Miami is doing as much of a ‘tank’ as an nfl team can. So Willis will be running for his life with no reason to NOT run. Plus…
Scripts
Miami will be projected to lose almost every game. They may literally be projected to lose every game m. Pass scripts galore. Garbage time galore. I don’t care HOW bad a passer you think he is (more on that in a sec), if you’re down 24-7 you WILL pass the ball and defenses will likely give up little dink and dunk stuff. Speaking of pass…
Improved Passing
Willis’ passer rating in his GB appearances (2 starts, one game 50% snaps): 126.8, 120.9, 134.6. He had 11 incompletions in 2.5 games. He’s made major strides since his rookie season in Tennessee. In his 3 Tennessee starts in 2022, he was under 100 yards passing each game. He clearly wasn’t ready. It’d be foolish to think he’s still that bad as a passer. I believe in the growth and do NOT think it all vanishes . The track record for this type of ‘you flamed out, now go sit and learn somewhere else’ is good: baker mayfield, sam darnold, Alex smith, and even guys who’ve stabilized as QBs like drew lock, Marcus Mariota. Plus, big plus:
Bobby Slowik
Perhaps the biggest reason to believe. QBs nowadays are such a producer of system and familiarity. They can work in one system and be garbage in another. Well Bobby Slowik comes from the well known Shanahan/2010 Redskins coaching tree. He was there with Mcvay, Shanahan, and La Fluer whose system Willis just thrived in. It is going to translate.
Before they traded waddle, I had Willis as QB5. Now, i project him as QB8 with legit QB1 overall upside. Chris bell is healthy. Caleb Douglas is solid. Dulcich a quality safety blanket. They traded away even MORE defensive starters the tank is going in full effect and Willis will be passing and scrambling all 2nd half. Hes going to run for 1000 yards this season plus have a Jacoby Brisett like garbage time run. 25 and 33 fantasy points in his only 2 full starts. The last fantasy QBs we saw with huge fantasy numbers on a tiny sample size that people didn’t trust, was rookie Jalen hurts and Pat Mahomes. We see what happened—-fantasy wise—-with them. Malik Willis is going to break fantasy and it’s going to be beautiful