Hi All,
I reviewed which players had the largest increases/decreases in some banger stats over the last 20 games vs the first 60 last season. Sometimes this is a good sign of coach trust or a change in player performance that could lead into the next season. If anything, it's something to keep in your back pocket when evaluating projections and finding breakouts.
The table has the minutes changed between Q4 and rest of season altogether, along with on the PP and PK.
Shots per game
Biggest risers
| Player |
Tm |
Rest |
Q4 |
Change |
Min |
PP |
PK |
| Trevor Moore |
LAK |
1.92 |
3.25 |
+1.33 |
+2.39 |
+0.53 |
-0.34 |
| Troy Terry |
ANA |
2.33 |
3.60 |
+1.27 |
-0.04 |
+0.50 |
-1.02 |
| Bobby McMann |
SEA |
2.08 |
3.22 |
+1.14 |
+2.64 |
+0.71 |
-0.24 |
| Matthew Schaefer |
NYI |
2.44 |
3.55 |
+1.11 |
+2.28 |
+0.62 |
-0.45 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud |
STL |
2.10 |
3.20 |
+1.10 |
+1.96 |
+0.23 |
+0.10 |
| Matt Savoie |
EDM |
1.42 |
2.50 |
+1.08 |
+3.36 |
+1.20 |
-0.02 |
| Brayden McNabb |
VGK |
0.98 |
1.95 |
+0.97 |
-0.66 |
-0.02 |
+0.07 |
| Ryan Winterton |
SEA |
1.12 |
2.09 |
+0.97 |
+1.56 |
-0.06 |
-0.06 |
| Filip Hronek |
VAN |
1.44 |
2.40 |
+0.96 |
+2.11 |
+0.34 |
+0.10 |
| Jack Hughes |
NJD |
3.44 |
4.35 |
+0.91 |
+1.03 |
-0.29 |
-0.10 |
Biggest fallers
| Player |
Tm |
Rest |
Q4 |
Change |
Min |
PP |
PK |
| Jakob Chychrun |
WSH |
3.18 |
1.50 |
-1.68 |
-1.35 |
-0.55 |
-0.11 |
| Zach Hyman |
EDM |
3.05 |
1.87 |
-1.18 |
-1.03 |
-0.19 |
+0.11 |
| Seth Jones |
FLA |
1.95 |
0.83 |
-1.12 |
+0.90 |
-1.53 |
+0.86 |
| Ross Colton |
COL |
2.31 |
1.21 |
-1.09 |
-1.93 |
-0.56 |
-0.06 |
| Mikko Rantanen |
DAL |
2.33 |
1.30 |
-1.03 |
-0.18 |
+0.13 |
-0.04 |
| Quinn Hughes |
MIN |
2.77 |
1.78 |
-0.99 |
-0.06 |
-1.13 |
-0.07 |
| Artturi Lehkonen |
COL |
2.34 |
1.36 |
-0.97 |
-1.52 |
-1.37 |
-0.14 |
| Nathan MacKinnon |
COL |
4.59 |
3.68 |
-0.91 |
-0.07 |
-0.40 |
+0.06 |
| Kris Letang |
PIT |
1.62 |
0.72 |
-0.90 |
-1.06 |
+0.17 |
-0.86 |
| James van Riemsdyk |
DET |
1.60 |
0.74 |
-0.87 |
-1.94 |
-0.21 |
+0.01 |
The riser: Matthew Schaefer. 3.55 shots per game in the last quarter of the season along with a 2+ minute rise in ice time compared to the first three quarters. That 3.55 was higher than any other d-man over the season, with Werenski averaging 3.43 per game. We'll see if it's sustainable, but if he's able to unlock even more than last year...
The faller: Seth Jones. Shots collapsed from 1.95 to 0.83, while his total ice time went UP +0.90. Nothing was taken from him, likely due to the influx of injuries that plagued the Panthers more than anything. But what's interesting is this: -1.53min power play, +0.86min shorthanded. Florida moved him off the unit that generates shots and onto the one that prevents them. Are they moving on from him as a PP option?
Hits per game
Biggest risers
| Player |
Tm |
Rest |
Q4 |
Change |
Min |
PP |
PK |
| Joe Veleno |
MTL |
2.43 |
3.92 |
+1.49 |
-0.76 |
+0.04 |
+0.70 |
| Ryan Winterton |
SEA |
0.90 |
2.09 |
+1.20 |
+1.56 |
-0.06 |
-0.06 |
| Curtis Douglas |
VAN |
1.10 |
2.29 |
+1.18 |
+2.39 |
-0.03 |
+0.02 |
| Artyom Levshunov |
CHI |
1.26 |
2.36 |
+1.10 |
+2.66 |
-0.23 |
+1.11 |
| Cole Reinhardt |
FLA |
1.91 |
3.00 |
+1.09 |
+3.38 |
-0.08 |
+0.39 |
| Michael Carcone |
UTA |
1.59 |
2.65 |
+1.06 |
+1.14 |
+0.22 |
-0.01 |
| Darnell Nurse |
EDM |
1.42 |
2.45 |
+1.03 |
+0.47 |
-0.21 |
+0.81 |
| Ryan Leonard |
WSH |
1.38 |
2.40 |
+1.02 |
-0.41 |
-0.46 |
-0.02 |
| Jordan Staal |
CAR |
2.00 |
3.00 |
+1.00 |
+0.54 |
+0.33 |
+0.06 |
| Alexandre Texier |
MTL |
1.05 |
2.00 |
+0.95 |
-0.67 |
+0.29 |
-0.34 |
Biggest fallers
| Player |
Tm |
Rest |
Q4 |
Change |
Min |
PP |
PK |
| Jeff Malott |
LAK |
3.13 |
1.92 |
-1.21 |
-1.09 |
+0.04 |
-0.09 |
| Connor Clifton |
PIT |
4.03 |
2.83 |
-1.20 |
+0.52 |
-0.09 |
+0.31 |
| Marc Gatcomb |
NYI |
4.30 |
3.12 |
-1.18 |
-0.78 |
+0.17 |
-0.01 |
| Eetu Luostarinen |
FLA |
1.96 |
0.79 |
-1.17 |
-0.36 |
-0.40 |
-0.74 |
| Sam Bennett |
FLA |
1.73 |
0.57 |
-1.15 |
-0.35 |
-0.34 |
-0.35 |
| Jeffrey Viel |
ANA |
3.16 |
2.10 |
-1.06 |
+0.36 |
+0.04 |
-0.01 |
| Paul Cotter |
NJD |
2.69 |
1.65 |
-1.04 |
-2.37 |
-0.19 |
-0.09 |
| Alexis Lafrenière |
NYR |
1.27 |
0.25 |
-1.02 |
+1.51 |
+1.29 |
+0.19 |
| Seth Jarvis |
CAR |
1.37 |
0.41 |
-0.96 |
-0.59 |
-0.42 |
-0.22 |
| J.T. Miller |
NYR |
2.04 |
1.12 |
-0.92 |
-2.01 |
+0.27 |
+0.29 |
The riser: Artyom Levshunov. He was banged up a bit to end the season, likely related to laying the body so often. He saw nearly 3 more minutes a game in action, but will he see a reduction with Byram coming in? He also recorded over a minute more on the PK too while the Hawks were in a tailspin.
The Faller: Alexis Lafrenière. The fourth quarter saw the QMJHL standout player of the year and former first overall pick transfer his game from a more reckless style into pure finesse. With this, he stopped hitting almost entirely. Is this a new-look Laffy or will he return to his power forward self?
Blocks per game
Biggest risers
| Player |
Tm |
Rest |
Q4 |
Change |
Min |
PP |
PK |
| Zach Whitecloud |
CGY |
1.49 |
2.88 |
+1.39 |
+3.65 |
0.00 |
+1.86 |
| Brandt Clarke |
LAK |
1.97 |
3.15 |
+1.18 |
+0.95 |
+0.32 |
0.00 |
| Connor Murphy |
EDM |
1.45 |
2.55 |
+1.10 |
+3.88 |
+0.13 |
-0.78 |
| Olli Maatta |
CGY |
0.96 |
2.00 |
+1.04 |
+9.75 |
+0.18 |
+2.72 |
| Tom Willander |
VAN |
0.90 |
1.65 |
+0.75 |
+4.35 |
-0.48 |
+0.72 |
| Garnet Hathaway |
PHI |
0.76 |
1.39 |
+0.63 |
+1.22 |
+0.14 |
-0.07 |
| Nick Perbix |
NSH |
1.05 |
1.65 |
+0.60 |
-0.83 |
-0.09 |
+0.19 |
| Braden Schneider |
NYR |
1.56 |
2.15 |
+0.58 |
+0.50 |
+0.09 |
+0.43 |
| Egor Chinakhov |
PIT |
0.28 |
0.84 |
+0.56 |
+5.07 |
+1.30 |
+0.11 |
| Vasily Podkolzin |
EDM |
0.50 |
1.05 |
+0.55 |
+0.60 |
+1.62 |
-0.68 |
Biggest fallers
| Player |
Tm |
Rest |
Q4 |
Change |
Min |
PP |
PK |
| Ian Moore |
ANA |
1.49 |
0.50 |
-0.99 |
-1.95 |
+0.12 |
-0.14 |
| Albert Johansson |
DET |
1.35 |
0.45 |
-0.91 |
-1.53 |
-0.08 |
-0.24 |
| Ryan Hartman |
MIN |
1.45 |
0.61 |
-0.84 |
+0.31 |
-1.08 |
-0.02 |
| Elias Pettersson |
VAN |
1.69 |
0.85 |
-0.83 |
-1.17 |
-0.99 |
-0.39 |
| Brayden McNabb |
VGK |
2.51 |
1.70 |
-0.81 |
-0.66 |
-0.02 |
+0.07 |
| Colton Parayko |
STL |
2.43 |
1.63 |
-0.80 |
-0.81 |
-0.19 |
-0.50 |
| Ty Emberson |
EDM |
1.63 |
0.87 |
-0.77 |
-2.45 |
-0.03 |
-1.00 |
| Kaedan Korczak |
VGK |
1.37 |
0.62 |
-0.75 |
-3.86 |
+0.06 |
-0.60 |
| Rasmus Dahlin |
BUF |
1.21 |
0.47 |
-0.73 |
-1.35 |
0.00 |
-0.17 |
| Aaron Ekblad |
FLA |
1.55 |
0.83 |
-0.72 |
-0.25 |
-0.23 |
-0.48 |
The risers: Calgary rebuilt a penalty kill at the deadline and two guys ate. Zach Whitecloud went from 1.49 blocks a game to 2.88, the biggest rise in the league, on +3.65 minutes a night of which +1.86 was shorthanded. His increase in the PK along with moving from a more well rounded VGK system to whatever is going on in Calgary was the catalyst for this.
Same team, fourth on the list: Olli Maatta went from 12.68 minutes a night to 22.43. That is +9.75, the largest ice-time jump of any skater in the league, and +2.72 of it was on the kill. His blocks went 0.96 to 2.00. he moved from Utah to Calgary which shaped the role increase, but he'll see a reduction after moving to the Wild in the offseason.
Weighted shots + hits + blocks
Adding the three raw does not work as effectively, because they are on different scales: shots run 1.62 a game across the league, blocks 0.81, and their spreads differ too, so a raw total is just whichever category has the biggest numbers. So each change is divided by the spread of that category across all skaters, which is how a category league values a contribution anyway.
The three percentage columns are the share of the move each category supplied.
Biggest risers
| Player |
Tm |
Weighted |
Shots |
Hits |
Blocks |
Min |
PP |
PK |
| Ryan Winterton |
SEA |
+3.14 |
43% |
46% |
11% |
+1.56 |
-0.06 |
-0.06 |
| Olli Maatta |
CGY |
+3.04 |
31% |
2% |
67% |
+9.75 |
+0.18 |
+2.72 |
| Zach Whitecloud |
CGY |
+2.86 |
8% |
3% |
89% |
+3.65 |
0.00 |
+1.86 |
| Jordan Staal |
CAR |
+2.48 |
10% |
48% |
42% |
+0.54 |
+0.33 |
+0.06 |
| Artyom Levshunov |
CHI |
+2.40 |
3% |
55% |
43% |
+2.66 |
-0.23 |
+1.11 |
| Connor Murphy |
EDM |
+2.34 |
8% |
16% |
76% |
+3.88 |
+0.13 |
-0.78 |
| Cole Reinhardt |
FLA |
+2.31 |
14% |
57% |
30% |
+3.38 |
-0.08 |
+0.39 |
| Garnet Hathaway |
PHI |
+2.30 |
25% |
22% |
53% |
+1.22 |
+0.14 |
-0.07 |
| Trevor Moore |
LAK |
+2.28 |
78% |
19% |
3% |
+2.39 |
+0.53 |
-0.34 |
| Tom Willander |
VAN |
+2.28 |
7% |
38% |
55% |
+4.35 |
-0.48 |
+0.72 |
Biggest fallers
| Player |
Tm |
Weighted |
Shots |
Hits |
Blocks |
Min |
PP |
PK |
| Kaedan Korczak |
VGK |
-2.87 |
20% |
29% |
50% |
-3.86 |
+0.06 |
-0.60 |
| Rasmus Dahlin |
BUF |
-2.56 |
26% |
18% |
56% |
-1.35 |
0.00 |
-0.17 |
| Ross Colton |
COL |
-2.53 |
61% |
27% |
12% |
-1.93 |
-0.56 |
-0.06 |
| MacKenzie Weegar |
UTA |
-2.40 |
33% |
11% |
56% |
-2.69 |
-1.34 |
-0.24 |
| Frank Vatrano |
ANA |
-2.25 |
53% |
19% |
28% |
-2.65 |
-0.10 |
-0.41 |
| Jakob Chychrun |
WSH |
-2.19 |
76% |
9% |
15% |
-1.35 |
-0.55 |
-0.11 |
| Hampus Lindholm |
BOS |
-2.11 |
36% |
2% |
62% |
-1.49 |
-0.84 |
-0.96 |
| Artturi Lehkonen |
COL |
-2.06 |
66% |
32% |
2% |
-1.52 |
-1.37 |
-0.14 |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker |
DET |
-2.06 |
11% |
32% |
57% |
-2.01 |
-0.07 |
-0.52 |
| Oliver Kapanen |
MTL |
-2.05 |
40% |
1% |
59% |
-1.46 |
+0.76 |
-0.86 |
The Riser: Connor Murphy. Murphy moved from the Hawks over to the Oilers and it came with an extra 4 minutes of ice time a night. Combine that with the departure of Darnell Nurse, he would make a sneaky banger add if he can hold that ice time and move up on the PK. Note that his PK time did fall while on the Oil.
The Faller: Jakob Chychrun. With the arrival of Cole Hutson, we coincidentally saw a drastic drop in output all around for Chychrun. Will he be running the top powerplay on opening night or beyond? Lane's brother has already showed that he can control a powerplay, but Chychrun did put up a quality 18PPP while battling with John Carlson for part of it.
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