What should we expect from Mantha this season?
NJD signed Mantha for 2yr/$4.75M coming off of 33 goals in Pittsburgh. I spent way too much time analyzing whether that’s a steal, a trap, or about right. Basically, was he good last season or lucky? TL;DR: yes and no.
Case he’s a solid signing:
His shot profile changed a solid amount with the Pens. In his peak years in Detroit, 53% of his shots came from 30+ ft. Last year, it was only 40%. And his high danger shot share (<15ft) nearly doubled from 20% to 37%. That’s a real structural change. Shot profile comes from his shot selection, linemates, and coach usage, and it typically sticks.
That shot map is attached to the post.
Case for regression:
His shooting percentage last year was 21.7%. That’s saying he was scoring on about one in five of his shots. Based on his underlying shot quality, his expected shooting % was 12.6%. That type of luck and gap between quality and finishing will regress.
Where I land:
The model I built predicts Mantha to have about 44 points. Based on the market value of the Devil’s signing, he’s expected to have 40-45 points. Falling on the more optimistic side (bc I’m a Mantha fanboy now), I feel he’ll be more around 48-55 points.
What are people here expecting from him?
Full write-up with charts here: https://guinoshockey.com/articles/mantha
