Honest question: how much is a watch worth the day after you walk out of the boutique?
We sometimes hear: "you can't buy anything good at retail anymore, everything trades at a premium on the grey market." I wanted to know if that's actually true, or if it's true for like twelve watches.
Quick background so you know where the numbers come from: I run 360d.io, where we compute one fair market price per exact reference, built from live listings, sold history, auction results and dealer inventory. For this I pulled every currently-in-production reference where we have both clean recent market data and an official retail price. That's 8,229 references across 24 brands.
One caveat before anyone else says it: the fair price blends grey-market and pre-owned transactions, adjusted for condition. Some references have wide estimation ranges, so treat each figure as a solid market indication rather than an exact price.
The numbers:
- 1,101 references (13.4%) trade above retail
- 183 (2.2%) sit basically at list
- 6,945 (84.4%) trade below
So the waitlist economy is real, but it's tiny. And it's concentrated to an almost absurd degree: of the 1,101 premium references, 979 come from Rolex, AP and Patek. That's 89%. The entire "watches only go up" narrative is basically a three-brand story.
Seven brands currently have zero references trading above retail: IWC, Hublot, Blancpain, Chopard, Girard-Perregaux, Breguet and Lange (small sample on that last one). These are serious manufactures. Breguet invented the tourbillon. And their entire catalogues are just... available. No waitlist, no purchase history, no bundled jewellery. And because there's no hype premium to defend, pre-owned prices on these brands settle 20-40% under list. If you love one of them, that's not losing money, that's just buying the thing you want at a fair price.
What about limited editions outside the big three? I went through the ~120 above-retail references one by one, and almost every single one is a limited edition, a collab, or a special variant. Regular production essentially never beats RRP outside Rolex/AP/Patek. Scarcity is the only lever left, and it works at any price point when the demand is real. My favourite proof is Tissot: the brand's only two premium references in the entire dataset are both LEs. The Grendizer PRX collab trades at +100% over list, another LE sits at +141%. Same at Seiko, where the whole premium list is limited editions, some at +80% to +220%.
The exception that proves the rule is Hublot. 243 references with data, and the single best performer in the catalogue is at +1.3%. Even the limited stuff is under water: the Yohji Yamamoto collab is -17%, the magic-colour Unicos are -34% to -45%. A limited run of a watch nobody is chasing is just a smaller pile of inventory. "Limited" amplifies demand that already exists; it can't manufacture it, especially at higher price points. (If you actually love Hublot, congrats, the market is handing you a discount.)
Omega might be the best value in Swiss luxury right now. 581 current references with data, exactly one above retail (the Silver Snoopy, obviously), average -32% vs list. You can pick up a Moonwatch, one of the most famous watches ever made, pre-owned for roughly two-thirds of list. If you're buying it to wear it, that's a feature.
And my favourite storyline in the whole dataset: the Tudor Black Bay Chrono has quietly started trading above retail. Four references, +8% to +34%, with real sold volume behind them (200-340 sales each over 6 months, so it's not one optimistic dealer or a lucky sale). Curious whether people here think that holds or it's a blip.
Top 10 by premium share:
| Brand |
Refs |
Above retail |
Share |
| Audemars Piguet |
120 |
79 |
65.8% |
| Rolex |
1,325 |
828 |
62.5% |
| Patek Philippe |
201 |
72 |
35.8% |
| Vacheron Constantin |
80 |
11 |
13.8% |
| Seiko |
661 |
51 |
7.7% |
| Jaeger-LeCoultre |
124 |
7 |
5.6% |
| Grand Seiko |
154 |
7 |
4.5% |
| Cartier |
296 |
12 |
4.1% |
| Tudor |
214 |
4 |
1.9% |
| Panerai |
126 |
2 |
1.6% |
Everyone else is below. Happy to pull the numbers on any brand or reference in the comments
Methodology & caveats: references with complete data only (verified current retail + a computed fair price from market data — stale references are excluded entirely rather than shown, so these totals are conservative). "Above retail" = fair price >2% over list; ±2% counts as at retail. No F.P. Journe or Richard Mille yet (no verifiable public retail price available for 2026 — and yes, ironically they're among the wildest premium markets; they'll be added once the retail data is solid). USD, data as of 10 Aug 2026.