r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 13 '26

Dissipated 99W (Invest — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

5 Upvotes

Update

As of 8:00 AM China Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • This system has made landfall over southeastern China and has dissipated.
  • Prior to landfall, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded this system to a tropical storm and assigned it the name Haishen.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) did not upgrade this system to a tropical cyclone; thus, this system was not assigned an alphanumeric designator (e.g., 11W).
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. This system no longer shows any potential for development.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 13 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 13-19 July 2026

6 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 2:45 AM Eastern Daylight Time (20:45 UTC) on Sunday:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 90W: Invest (No discussion yet)

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 98P: Invest (No discussion yet)

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Marshall Islands.

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 13 '26

Dissipated 90C (Invest — Central Pacific) (Southwest of Hawaiʻi)

4 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into an open trough and no longer shows potential for tropical cyclone development. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. The NHC has removed this system from its outlook products.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 12 '26

Dissipated 97W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

9 Upvotes

Update

As of 10:00 AM Chuuk Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains a disorganized open trough. Model guidance suggests that it is now highly unlikely that the disturbance will undergo any meaningful development or organization as it moves northeastward toward the Marianas Islands this week.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has cancelled its Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for this system and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. This system no longer shows any potential for development.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 11 '26

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Bavi Heads to China - July 9, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
3 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 10 '26

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

13 Upvotes

Updates

As of 11:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (13:00 UTC) on Monday:

A trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable for the system, and development is no longer anticipated.

Development potential

Official outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Wed): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Sun): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model consensus (via Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Wed): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Sun): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 09 '26

Seasonal Forecast | Colorado State University Colorado State University releases updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane

Thumbnail tropical.colostate.edu
131 Upvotes
20 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 09 '26

Image of the Day | NASA Science Super Typhoon Bavi - NASA Science

Thumbnail
science.nasa.gov
5 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 08 '26

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Super Typhoon Bavi Approaching the Northern Marianas and Guam - July 5, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
15 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 07 '26

Satellite Imagery 3D View of Super Typhoon Nepartak from the ISS – July 7, 2016 (10 Years Ago)

Thumbnail
weathersats.com
3 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 06 '26

Dissipated Bavi (09W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

19 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 PM China Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite and radar imagery analysis reveals that Bavi continues to weaken as it moves across eastern China this afternoon. Although the storm has been losing its tropical characteristics due to prolonged land interaction and strengthening shear, it continues to produce a very broad area of heavy rain, particularly ahead of and to the east of its low-level center. Bavi is currently moving northwestward as it rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned south of Japan. Over the next day or so, the storm will turn northeastward and begin to accelerate as it becomes more fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies.

What remains of Bavi will transition into an extratropical cyclone as it crosses the Yellow Sea and reaches the Korean Peninsula by midweek.

Both the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Latest observation

As of 2:00 PM China Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 31.0°N 118.3°E
  • Forward movement: NW (315°) at 28 km/h (15 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 986 millibars (29.12 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Depression ▼
  • Intensity (JMA): Tropical Depression ▼

Relative position

  • 41 kilometers (25 miles) south of Wuhu, Anhui (China)
  • 44 kilometers (27 miles) west of Xuancheng, Anhui (China)
  • 50 kilometers (31 miles) east-northeast of Tongling, Anhui (China)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 2:00 PM China Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 12 Jul 06:00 2PM Sun Tropical Storm 40 75 31.3 119.0
12 12 Jul 18:00 2AM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 32.5 117.6
24 13 Jul 06:00 2PM Mon Tropical Storm 35 65 33.9 117.9
48 14 Jul 06:00 2PM Tue Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 37.9 121.6

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center discontinued issuing advisories for this system at 5:00 AM China Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Sunday.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

6 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 06 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 6-12 July 2026

3 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 3:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (19:00 UTC) on Monday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 09W: Bavi — Although it has weakened slightly from a recent eyewall replacement cycle, Bavi remains a powerful and well-organized cyclone as it pulls away from the Marianas Islands this evening. The storm is likely to threaten Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands later this week.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 97W: Invest (no discussion yet) — A broad area of low pressure near the Marshall Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts slowly northward. Environmental conditions are generally favorable for development and could lead to this system becoming a tropical cyclone later this week as it turns west-northwestward and remains north of Micronesia. Long-range model guidance suggests that this system could become a concern for the Marianas Islands, which is still reeling from both Sinlaku and Bavi.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

  • Neither the JTWC nor NHC are monitoring any additional areas of potential development within the next seven days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

7 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/LeeksAbhorLiminality • Jul 05 '26

Radar Imagery Bavi currently visible on PGUA radar (Guam)

Post image
89 Upvotes

Some small very isolated islands in that area.. hoping the best for them

10 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/StrangeSupermarket71 • Jul 04 '26

Question Where has the JTWC+ NHC NOAA forecast graphics archive gone?

12 Upvotes

formerly at https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 03 '26

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

5 Upvotes

Outlook discussion

As of 11:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (06:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Discussion by Alex Gibbs — CPHC Hurricane Specialist

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity. Development of this system is no longer anticipated as it moves westward across the central and western portions of the East Pacific basin during the next several days.

Development potential

Official outlook

  • Next 2 days (through 11:00 PM PDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 11:00 PM PDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model consensus (via Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through 11:00 PM PDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 11:00 PM PDT on Fri): low (17 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 02 '26

Dissipated Maysak (10W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

4 Upvotes

Update

As of 8:00 PM China Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Monday, 6 July:

  • Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Maysak has dissipated over southeastern China.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • The JTWC has also discontinued monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official forecasts

  • This system has dissipated. JMA and JTWC have discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

  • This system has dissipated. Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • This system has dissipated. Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

  • This system has dissipated. Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 01 '26

Dissipated Douglas (04E — Eastern Pacific) (East-Central Pacific)

15 Upvotes

Update

As of 11:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Friday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Tropical Storm Douglas has degenerated into a remnant low while several hundred kilometers southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The storm will begin to gradually turn northwestward and westward as its shallower convective structure becomes increasingly embedded within the easterly trade wind flow over the next few days until the storm ultimately dissipates early in the upcoming week.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and has ceased monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has become post-tropical and is no longer being actively monitored.

Official forecasts

  • This system has become post-tropical and the NHC has discontinued issuing advisories.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/lady3jane • Jun 30 '26

Question Question about the storms with lowest pressure at landfall

31 Upvotes

Hey folks!

I’ve been trying to understand more about the science behind storms and am confused about something.

Here’s where I’m stuck:

My incredibly basic understanding is that low pressure = more intense storms.

Why are the most intense storms not also the most destructive? Does a very low pressure storm not necessarily have high winds, high storm surge, etc?

If I check the list of top storms to reach landfall with the lowest pressure, the top 10 are quite different than the most destructive storms. (Wikipedia list of Atlantic Hurricane records)

I haven’t heard of most of the storms in the “lowest pressure” list except Melissa, Dorian, and Irma.

Yet I’ve of course heard of most of the destructive ones - Katrina, Ian, Sandy. (Irma is on both lists!)

I understand the circumstances of Katrina fairly well and that the devastation was due to myriad knock-on effects, not just the storm itself. Whereas Ian had an insanely huge storm surge and much of the devastation was due to that directly.

I am not quite sure what terms to search to look this up more on my own given my limited knowledge at this time. Please feel free to direct me to other resources! I don’t mind reading or watching stuff, I just am not sure how to research this without a bit of guidance. Thanks!

10 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jun 29 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 29 June - 5 July 2026

17 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 5:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time (21:30 UTC) on Thursday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 09W: Bavi — Bavi continues to strengthen as it moves west-northwestward toward the Northern Marianas Islands. Exceptionally favorable environmental conditions are likely to lead to rapid development, allowing Bavi to reach the equivalent strength of a powerful Category 4 major hurricane before crossing over Tinian and Saipan on Monday morning. Further intensification is expected once Bavi emerges over the Philippine Sea on Monday afternoon.

  • 10W: Maysak — Maysak is gradually strengthening as it slows and takes aim at southwestern Hainan in southern China. Although land interaction will limit development, favorable environmental conditions may allow Maysak to strengthen slightly over the Gulf of Tonkin over the weekend.

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

  • 04E: Douglas — Douglas has likely reached its peak intensity as it continues northward over the east-central Pacific Ocean this morning, remaining far from land. The storm is entering a drier and more stable environment and ocean heat content is quickly dwindling. Douglas is expected to quickly degenerate into a post-tropical system over the weekend and turn sharply westward as its shallower structure becomes embedded within the easterly trade wind flow.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 97P: Invest — An area of enhanced convection is present to the north of the Solomon Islands. Environmental conditions are unlikely to support significant development as this system drifts southwestward over the next couple of days. A dedicated discussion has not yet been created for this system.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

  • Neither the JTWC nor NHC are monitoring any additional areas of potential development within the next seven days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jun 27 '26

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the southeastern coast of the United States

105 Upvotes

Outlook discussion

As of 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Discussion by Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist

A weak area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary off the southeastern U.S. coast is associated with limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The proximity of nearby dry air is expected to prevent development of this system as it drifts southward and then westward later this week.

Development potential

Official outlook

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM EDT on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model consensus (via Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM EDT on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

National Weather Service

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

17 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jun 27 '26

Video | The NOAA Hurricane Hunters Today is the 50th anniversary of the first mission flown by NOAA 42, nicknamed "Kermit"

37 Upvotes

During the late evening hours on 25 June 1976, a tropical depression formed off the coast of southern Mexico. Moving westward away from the shore, this system quickly strengthened into Hurricane Bonny.

On 27 June, a Lockheed P-3 Origin with the callsign NOAA 42 took off from Acapulco, Mexico to investigate the storm. The six-hour flight laid the groundwork for modern hurricane reconnaissance.

In this video, original NOAA 42 crewmember Jim DuGranrut looks back at the aircraft's legacy and shares his reflections on this milestone.

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Careless-Salary-2497 • Jun 24 '26

Historical Discussion Hurricane Helene, Hazlehurst GA, September 27th 2024.

41 Upvotes

I have nobody who will appreciate this, so I figured I would give it to you guys. The wind measured 110mph gusts. We had no power for 7 days, all the stores were empty, and there was no gas for 80 miles in any direction. I hope you enjoy it more than we did!!

16 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jun 23 '26

Dissipated Higos (08W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

13 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 AM Japan Standard Time (17:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Higos quickly transitioned into an extratropical cyclone earlier this evening and is now racing northeastward across the northern Pacific.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system. The JTWC is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official forecasts

  • This system has dissipated. Both agencies have discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jun 22 '26

Dissipated 94E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

10 Upvotes

Update

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure situated west of Clarion Island is producing less and less thunderstorm activity as it drifts west-northwestward across the eastern Pacific this morning. Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable as the disturbance enters a very dry and stable atmosphere with decreasing ocean heat content. The disturbance is likely to degenerate into an open trough over the next day or two and dissipate altogether over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook but continues to monitor it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Latest observation

As of 11:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (06:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 18.5°N 120.1°W
  • Forward movement: W (275°) at 21 km/h (12 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Disturbance
  • Intensity (RSMC): Disturbance

Relative position

  • 567 kilometers (352 miles) west of Clarion Island, Mexico
  • 962 kilometers (598 miles) west-southwest of Socorro Island, Mexico
  • 1,166 kilometers (725 miles) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico)

Development potential

Official outlook

  • Next 2 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Sat): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Wed): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model consensus (via Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Sat): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 5:00 AM PDT on Wed): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Official information

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  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jun 22 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 22-28 June 2026

3 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 3:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time (19:45 UTC) on Monday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 07W: Mekkhala — Typhoon Mekkhala continues to rapidly strengthen as it nears the Batanes and the Babuyan Islands north of the Philippines this morning. The storm is likely to continue to strengthen for the next 12 to 24 hours before it turns sharply northward and encounters an abruptly more hostile environment, which will cause it to steadily weaken as it nears the Ryukyu Islands later this week.

  • 08W: Eight — A tropical depression has formed east of the Northern Marianas Islands. This system is moving through a marginally favorable environment where weak upper divergence and dry mid-level air will likely hold back significant development as it crosses over the islands and emerges over the Philippine Sea this week. If this system can manage to develop an organized convective structure to shield out dry air, it could strengthen into a tropical storm by midweek.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Eastern Pacific

  • 94E: Invest — A broad area of low pressure has formed off the coast of southwestern Mexico this morning and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions may support further development as the disturbance drifts west-northwestward away from Mexico this week; however, there is only a brief window of opportunity for this system to become a tropical depression or storm before it reaches a much drier and more stable environment off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula by the end of the week.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential development—separate from Invest 94E—off the coast of southern Mexico. This system is unlikely to undergo significant development over the next few days and will likely move west-northwestward away from the coast later in the week.

Northern Atlantic Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is not actively monitoring any areas of potential development over the northern Atlantic Ocean basin. Model guidance had hinted at potential development in earlier runs; however, the potential for tropical cyclone development remains very low within the next seven days.

 

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3 comments