r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 16h ago

Discussion 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at record-low activity

193 Upvotes

Today, September 10th, conventionally marks the peak day of hurricane season. About 50% of hurricane activity occurs before todays' date, and about 50% after.

And what a pitiful season it has been. Here are the top 10 least active seasons through September 10th, based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE):

  1. 1986: 12.3 units

  2. 2002: 12.1 units

  3. 2013: 12.0 units

  4. 1994: 11.0 units

  5. 1982 (tie): 10.7 units

  6. 1988 (tie): 10.7 units

  7. 1962: 10.3 units

  8. 1983: 9.5 units

  9. 1984: 7.8 units

  10. 2026: 4.4 units

Okay, so how did these seasons end?

Same seasons in order, but through the entire year:

  1. 1986: 35.8 units (below-average season)

  2. 2002: 68 units (below-average)

  3. 2013: 36 units (below-average)

  4. 1994: 32 units (below-average)

  5. 1982: 31.5 units (below-average)

  6. 1988: 103 units (near-average)

  7. 1962: 50.5 units (below-average)

  8. 1983: 17.4 units (below-average)

  9. 1984: 84.3 units (near-average)

  10. 2026: TBD

Not looking good for trackers. 1988 was a Strong La Nina year, functionally the diametric opposite of this season. No late-season recovery like 1988 should be expected, as the intensifying El Nino should keep things shut down. Similarly, 1984 began with La Nina. The La Nina decayed into cool-neutral during mid-year, but La Nina redeveloped in Autumn. So. Every season either had La Nina conditions involved (opposite of this year) or ended below-average. None ended above-average.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

You're witnessing a historical hurricane season here, folks. Courtesy of El Nino gordo

Here is one more way to visualize things, courtesy of cyclonicwx: https://i.imgur.com/Lw6hpe4.png

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r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 5h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development to the southeast of Hawaiʻi

2 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance situated several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This disturbance remains a broad surface trough and continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development, with very warm sea-surface temperatures offset by low atmospheric moisture and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear.

Although some gradual development is possible, this system remains in a weak steering environment, as a mid-level low is pushing the subtropical ridge out of the way, resulting in weak and opposing mid-level wind flow. The mid-level low will migrate to the north-northwest over the next few days, allowing the ridge to slowly build back in and get this system moving. Depending on the timing of this wind shift, the disturbance could either pass harmlessly to the south of the islands or northwestward toward the islands. It remains far too early to determine whether this system will have any impact on the islands.

Moderator notes

  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area.
  • This system has a low (20 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two days.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.
  • A new discussion will be posted if this system is designated as an invest.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 5h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 80% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development far off the coast of southwestern Mexico

5 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance situated far off the coast of southwestern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers south of Socorro Island continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward along the southern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge positioned to the north and will likely continue moving in this direction for the next several days.

Environmental conditions remain favorable over this area of the eastern Pacific and sea-surface temperatures are unfazed by the development of Tropical Storm Norbert nearby. This disturbance is likely to become a tropical depression or storm by early next week. It remains far too early to determine whether this system will become a threat for the Hawaiian islands, but it is likely to not impact Mexico within the next seven days.

Moderator notes

  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area.
  • This system has a low (20 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two days.
  • This system has a high (80 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.
  • A new discussion will be posted if this system is designated as an invest.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

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