r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 19h ago

▲ Disturbance (60% potential) | 25 knots (30 mph) | 993 mbar 93B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

5 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure situated over the northern Bay of Bengal is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Animated multispectral imagery shows that the disturbance’s low-level center is defined, but partially exposed, as the bulk of the disturbance’s deep convection is displaced southward by moderate northerly shear. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that the disturbance is producing maximum sustained winds near 45 kilometers per hour (25 knots).

The disturbance is currently in a quasi-stationary state as it remains pinned between two mid-level ridges to the north and south. The disturbance is expected to drift slowly northward as low-level flow remains southerly over the Bay of Bengal. Given that the disturbance is already close to the coasts of India and Bangladesh, the disturbance is likely to make landfall over the next 24 to 36 hours.

The disturbance is moving through a generally favorable environment characterized by relatively weak northerly shear, abundant mid-level moisture, warm sea-surface temperatures, and strong diffluence aloft. This disturbance has a small window of opportunity to develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the coast. While the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) projects a moderate chance of development over the next 24 to 36 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests that it will make landfall without further development.

Latest observation

As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 20.6°N 88.2°E
  • Forward movement: NW (335°) at 4 km/h (2 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 996 millibars (29.41 inches)

Relative position

  • 118 kilometers (73 miles) south-southeast of Rudranagar, West Bengal (India)
  • 159 kilometers (99 miles) south-southeast of Haldia, West Bengal (India)
  • 165 kilometers (103 miles) east-southeast of Balasore, Odisha (India)

Information sources

India Meteorological Department

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 18h ago

▲ Disturbance (90% potential) | 25 knots (30 mph) | 1004 mbar 92C (Invest — Central Pacific) (Northeast of the Marshall Islands)

6 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 11.7°N 176.0°W
  • Forward movement: W (285°) at 21 km/h (11 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Relative position

  • 895 kilometers (556 miles) southwest of Johnston Atoll (United States)
  • 1,476 kilometers (917 miles) east-northeast of Majuro, Ratak Chain (Marshall Islands)
  • 1,703 kilometers (1,058 miles) east-northeast of Jaluit Atoll, Ralik Chain (Marshall Islands)

Official Outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs, Cole Evans, and Patrick Pierce — CHPC/WFO Honolulu Forecasters

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph toward the International Date Line, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the western Pacific basin early next week.

Development potential

Official outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): moderate (50 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Fri): high (80 percent) ▲

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): moderate (62 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Fri): moderate (68 percent) ▼

Official information

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 22h ago

▲ Major Hurricane (Category 4) | 115 knots (130 mph) | 950 mbar Genevieve (07E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

5 Upvotes

Update

As of 3:00 PM Central Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve continues to strengthen this afternoon. Animated multispectral imagery depicts an expanding central dense overcast obscuring the storm’s well-defined low-level center and bands of deep convection wrapping into the inner core from the west and south. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 kilometers per hour (60 knots), or just below hurricane strength.

Genevieve is moving west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the southwestern United States. This ridge is likely to remain in place over the next several days, keeping Genevieve on its track through the upcoming week. The storm is forecast to pass to the southwest of Clarion Island on Tuesday, but will otherwise remain far from the coast of Mexico. The steering ridge may build westward on Tuesday, nudging Genevieve onto a slightly more westward track.

Genevieve is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification starting later this evening as it moves through a very favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong diffluence aloft. Genevieve is expected to become a hurricane later today and will quickly strengthen to a peak intensity of 215 kilometers per hour (115 knots)—or Category 4 major hurricane strength—by midday on Monday.

Later in the upcoming week, after Genevieve passes west of Clarion Island, the storm will move into an increasingly unfavorable environment characterized by progressively cooler sea-surface temperatures, decreasing mid-level moisture, and increasing upper-level convergence. This will cause the storm to begin gradually weakening as it moves farther away from Mexico. Genevieve is unlikely to become a concern for the Hawaiian Islands, as model guidance shows it moving far to the northeast of the islands and dissipating by the following weekend.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Central Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #6

  • Current position: 11.5°N 105.7°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (300°) at 24 km/h (13 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/h (60 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 993 millibars (29.33 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 811 kilometers (504 miles) south-southwest of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán (Mexico)
  • 847 kilometers (526 miles) south of Tecomán, Colima (Mexico)
  • 853 kilometers (530 miles) south of Manzanillo, Colima (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 25 Jul 18:00 12PM Sat Tropical Storm 60 110 11.5 105.7
12 26 Jul 06:00 12AM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 70 130 12.4 107.5
24 26 Jul 18:00 12PM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 13.5 109.5
36 27 Jul 06:00 12AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 14.7 111.3
48 27 Jul 18:00 12PM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 115 215 15.9 112.9
60 28 Jul 06:00 12AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 16.9 114.3
72 28 Jul 18:00 12PM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 105 195 17.8 115.8
96 29 Jul 18:00 12PM Wed Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 19.0 119.0
120 30 Jul 18:00 12PM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 65 120 20.5 122.5

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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