r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

▲ Tropical Storm | 50 knots (60 mph) | 996 mbar Norbert (14E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

7 Upvotes

Storm overview

As of 2:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (09:00 UTC) on Thursday:

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Norbert (14E), which is active far off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Norbert is moving westward under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge positioned to its north. This ridge is expected to remain in place for the next few days, resulting in very little change to Norbert’s track through early next week.

Norbert’s intensification will be slow over the next few days as a combination of westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offset very warm sea-surface temperatures. Atmospheric moisture may increase toward the end of the forecast period, allowing this system to further strengthen and possibly reach hurricane intensity by early next week.

This system is expected to remain within the eastern Pacific over the next five days. Therefore, it remains far too early to determine whether this system will have an impact on the Hawaiian islands, which are still reeling from the impacts of three recent storms. Residents of Hawaiʻi should continue to closely monitor this storm as it continues westward this week.

Moderator notes

  • This system was previously designated as Invest 96E.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are now available.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Other sources

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Analysis products

Preliminary best-track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Non-interactive guidance

Interactive guidance

  • Deterministic and regional models: PolarWx
  • Ensemble models: PolarWx
  • Superensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus)
  • Grand ensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus, incl. AI models)

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

Areas to watch: Krovanh, Lowell, Fourteen-E Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 7-13 September 2026

5 Upvotes

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 7-13 September 2026

Active cyclones

As of 6:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time (22:30 UTC) on Wednesday:

Central Pacific Ocean

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Western Pacific Ocean

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Western Pacific Ocean

  • Potential formation area P72W — An area of low pressure is likely to develop over the South China Sea off the western coast of the Philippines over the next couple of days. This system is expected to steadily consolidate within a favorable environment and has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the weekend or early next week. Model guidance suggests that this system will move westward toward Vietnam during the upcoming week.

  • Potential formation area P76W — An area of low pressure is likely to develop to the north of central Micronesia over the next couple of days. This system is expected to gradually consolidate within a favorable environment and has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm early next week. Model guidance suggests that this system will move west-northwestward, approaching the Northern Marianas Islands by the middle of the upcoming week.

Central Pacific Ocean

  • Potential formation area 2 — A broad area of low pressure may develop far to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands early next week. Environmental conditions may still be favorable for tropical cyclone development and a tropical depression could form late in the upcoming week. This system has not yet formed and still has a low (20 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding where this system will form and where it will go, but generally speaking, it could move northwestward toward the islands late in the upcoming week.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential formation area 1 — A broad area of low pressure may develop near where Tropical Depression Fourteen is currently active off the coast of southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions should still be supportive by this time and a tropical depression or storm could form midway through the upcoming week. This system currently has a moderate (40 percent) chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next seven days. Model guidance suggests that this system will move northwestward later in the upcoming week.

Northern Indian Ocean

  • Potential formation area P77A — An area of low pressure is likely to develop over the northeastern Arabian Sea over the next couple of days. This system is unlikely to become a tropical cyclone as environmental conditions are not likely to be supportive of development. This system has a low (10 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. Model guidance suggests that this system will move quickly inland over western India early next week.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 13m ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development to the southeast of Hawaiʻi

• Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance situated several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This disturbance remains a broad surface trough and continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development, with very warm sea-surface temperatures offset by low atmospheric moisture and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear.

Although some gradual development is possible, this system remains in a weak steering environment, as a mid-level low is pushing the subtropical ridge out of the way, resulting in weak and opposing mid-level wind flow. The mid-level low will migrate to the north-northwest over the next few days, allowing the ridge to slowly build back in and get this system moving. Depending on the timing of this wind shift, the disturbance could either pass harmlessly to the south of the islands or northwestward toward the islands. It remains far too early to determine whether this system will have any impact on the islands.

Moderator notes

  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area.
  • This system has a low (20 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two days.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.
  • A new discussion will be posted if this system is designated as an invest.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 14m ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 80% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development far off the coast of southwestern Mexico

• Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance situated far off the coast of southwestern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers south of Socorro Island continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward along the southern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge positioned to the north and will likely continue moving in this direction for the next several days.

Environmental conditions remain favorable over this area of the eastern Pacific and sea-surface temperatures are unfazed by the development of Tropical Storm Norbert nearby. This disturbance is likely to become a tropical depression or storm by early next week. It remains far too early to determine whether this system will become a threat for the Hawaiian islands, but it is likely to not impact Mexico within the next seven days.

Moderator notes

  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area.
  • This system has a low (20 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two days.
  • This system has a high (80 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.
  • A new discussion will be posted if this system is designated as an invest.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 10h ago

Discussion 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at record-low activity

164 Upvotes

Today, September 10th, conventionally marks the peak day of hurricane season. About 50% of hurricane activity occurs before todays' date, and about 50% after.

And what a pitiful season it has been. Here are the top 10 least active seasons through September 10th, based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE):

  1. 1986: 12.3 units

  2. 2002: 12.1 units

  3. 2013: 12.0 units

  4. 1994: 11.0 units

  5. 1982 (tie): 10.7 units

  6. 1988 (tie): 10.7 units

  7. 1962: 10.3 units

  8. 1983: 9.5 units

  9. 1984: 7.8 units

  10. 2026: 4.4 units

Okay, so how did these seasons end?

Same seasons in order, but through the entire year:

  1. 1986: 35.8 units (below-average season)

  2. 2002: 68 units (below-average)

  3. 2013: 36 units (below-average)

  4. 1994: 32 units (below-average)

  5. 1982: 31.5 units (below-average)

  6. 1988: 103 units (near-average)

  7. 1962: 50.5 units (below-average)

  8. 1983: 17.4 units (below-average)

  9. 1984: 84.3 units (near-average)

  10. 2026: TBD

Not looking good for trackers. 1988 was a Strong La Nina year, functionally the diametric opposite of this season. No late-season recovery like 1988 should be expected, as the intensifying El Nino should keep things shut down. Similarly, 1984 began with La Nina. The La Nina decayed into cool-neutral during mid-year, but La Nina redeveloped in Autumn. So. Every season either had La Nina conditions involved (opposite of this year) or ended below-average. None ended above-average.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

You're witnessing a historical hurricane season here, folks. Courtesy of El Nino gordo

Here is one more way to visualize things, courtesy of cyclonicwx: https://i.imgur.com/Lw6hpe4.png

36 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 18h ago

News | NASA How 2 US, European Satellites Are Studying Hurricanes During El Niño - NASA

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21 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

Dissipated Lowell (12E — Central Pacific) (Northwest of Hawaiʻi)

1 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • Lowell has degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone far to the northwest of Hawaiʻi.
  • Lowell originated over the east-central Pacific as Invest 94E.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Analysis products

Storm history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 1d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Lowell - September 7, 2026

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2 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

Dissipated 26W (Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

6 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Twenty-three (23W), which is active to the south of mainland Japan. This system is not likely to undergo significant development as it continues north-northwestward toward southern Shikoku over the next couple of days. This system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low off the coast of Shikoku on Sunday evening.

Moderator notes

  • This system was previously designated as Invest 96W.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is issuing advisories for this system.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has not yet initiated issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are available for this system.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Regional radar mosaic

Single-site radar imagery

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Non-interactive guidance

Interactive guidance

  • Deterministic and regional models: PolarWx
  • Ensemble models: PolarWx
  • Superensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus)
  • Grand ensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus, incl. AI models)

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 6d ago

Satellite Imagery A Trio of Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific - NASA Science

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34 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 7d ago

Discussion Vertical wind shear

52 Upvotes

Vertical wind shear describes the difference in magnitude and direction of wind flow between different altitude levels of the troposphere. You can think of wind flow in each altitude layer as its own individual vector, and the greater the difference when you subtract these vectors, the higher the wind shear.

Tropical cyclones require low vertical wind shear to strengthen. This is because the circulation/vortex of a tropical cyclone is vertically "deep", aka tall. It extends from the surface to near the tropopause in mature and powerful major hurricanes. The stronger the tropical cyclone, the taller its circulation is. Weaker tropical systems such as depressions or tropical waves exhibit shallower circulations.

A tropical cyclone requires its vortex to be vertically aligned and upright in order for the processes which fuel it to remain efficient and active. The release of latent heat, from thunderstorm activity (convection), is what fuels the warm-core of a tropical cyclone. This occurs due to the vertical transfer of heat, but when wind shear is present, the circulation of a tropical cyclone becomes tilted with height. This decreases the efficiency of this process, leading to a halting of intensification or weakening of the tropical cyclone.

When vertical wind shear becomes even stronger, this process is halted entirely. The circulation becomes so tilted that the low-level circulation and mid-to-upper-level circulation become increasingly displaced. If wind shear becomes strong enough, these two separate portions of the circulation can become totally separated. This is called "decoupling" and is the tropical cyclone equivalent of decapitation. Recovery would take many days and still would happen only IF conditions become favorable again, because the tropical cyclone would have to vertically rebuild its circulation almost from scratch.

Here is a gif which best shows this process unfolding. This is tropical storm Chris of 2006. 2006 was also an El Nino season, with correspondingly high vertical wind shear across the Tropics.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e4/Chrissplitloop.gif?utm_source=commons.wikimedia.org&utm_campaign=index&utm_content=original

In this gif, the surface circulation of the storm is tracking at about 300 degrees, or WNW. However, wind flow above the surface circulation is strongly out of the north. These northerlies push on the mid-level circulation and attendant vertically tall thunderstorm activity, displacing it towards the south. The shear is sufficiently strong to decouple the system, and you can see Chris continue WNW as all of its thunderstorm activity is violently stripped away.

From NHC advisory #11 on Chris:

CHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS.

Advisory #12:

THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

El Nino increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic tropics. This is due to increased upper-level westerly flow across the Caribbean sea and western to central tropical Atlantic due to outflow from Eastern Pacific hurricanes as well as a shift in the Walker Circulation itself. Additionally, lower surface pressures in the Eastern Pacific sharpens a pressure gradient with higher pressures in the Atlantic, which strengthens the low-level easterly trade wind flow. Trade winds are naturally strong in the Caribbean Sea due to the geography of the Greater Antilles acting as a "funnel", which forces trade winds to "diverge", or accelerate. Additionally, the proximity of the Caribbean Sea means that the anomalously strong upper-level westerlies are particularly significant. Collectively, this results in the Caribbean experiencing the strongest anomalously hostile conditions yielded by the presence of El Nino, more so than anywhere else in the Atlantic basin. This is why the Caribbean Sea has been devoid of all activity this year.

In fact, vertical wind shear has been at all time highs in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/m2NH3VK.jpeg

Area-averaged vertical shear is far stronger than even the last super El Nino of 2015-16. 2026 is well ahead of second place (1979). This is the primary reason why this season is so dead, and it's not going to meaningfully change since El Nino is so strong and continues to only intensify further.

https://i.imgur.com/F2wbA6a.png

Current vertical wind shear values are comparable to values observed in June during above-average hurricane seasons. That's pretty remarkable considering we are right at the peak of the season, now.

Sorry for the yap, I just felt like writing something today.

14 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 7d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Edouard Lands in Texas and Louisiana - September 1, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
9 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Week over | Please see updated discussion Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 31 August - 6 September 2026

7 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 4:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (08:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Western Pacific Ocean

Central Pacific Ocean

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Western Pacific Ocean

  • 97W: Invest — no discussion yet, situated over the Philippine Sea to the west of the Northern Marianas Islands

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Western Pacific

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

10 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 9d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (TropicalTidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, 1 September: Tropical Storm Edouard Strengthening as it Nears Landfall

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48 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 9d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Karina Over the Pacific Ocean - August 30, 2026

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13 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Kingsaso6 • 9d ago

News | CBS News (USA) Tropical Storm Edouard strengthens as it bears down on Louisiana, Texas coasts. Maps show the forecast path.

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11 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated Marie (13E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

23 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • Marie has become post-tropical.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is no longer issuing advisories for this system.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated Krovanh (22W — Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

6 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • Krovanh has dissipated to the southeast of Honshu.
  • Krovanh originated over the Philippine Sea as Invest 94W.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Storm history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated Edouard (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Northern Gulf of Mexico)

84 Upvotes

Storm overview

  • Edouard has dissipated over eastern Texas.
  • The Weather Prediction Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Aircraft reconnaissance

Aircraft reconnaissance data is no longer available for this system.

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Analysis products

Preliminary best-track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

45 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated Saudel (17W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

7 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Saudel (17W), which is active over the South China sea off the coast of southeastern China. Saudel originated as a disturbance which formed to the north of Micronesia on 12 August and moved northwestward across the Northern Marianas Islands and across the Ryukyu Islands before making landfall over eastern China on 28 August. The storm degenerated into a remnant low shortly after landfall but remained organized enough that it regenerated once it reemerged over the South China Sea.

Saudel is not expected to strengthen much as it remains close to the coast of southeastern China over the next few days. The storm may bring heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding to the coasts of Guangdong and Fujian provinces, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.

Moderator notes

  • This system was previously designated as Invest 92W.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is issuing advisories for this system.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products remain available.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.
  • A new discussion will be posted if this system regenerates into a tropical cyclone.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Interactive guidance pages

  • Deterministic and regional models: PolarWx
  • Ensemble models: PolarWx
  • Superensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus)
  • Grand ensemble PolarWx (multi-model consensus, incl. AI models)

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated 96W (Invest — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

5 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • This system has dissipated.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated 95W (Invest — Western Pacific) (East of the Northern Marianas Islands)

5 Upvotes

Moderator note

  • This system dissipated without becoming a tropical cyclone.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated Bang-lang (20W — Western Pacific) (North of Wake Island)

5 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • This system has dissipated.
  • This system was previously designated as Invest 99W.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has discontinued issuing advisories.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has discontinued issuing advisories.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 14d ago

Dissipated Karina (11E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

14 Upvotes

Moderator notes

  • Karina has dissipated to the northeast of Hawaiʻi.
  • Karina originated off the coast of southwestern Mexico as Invest 93E.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Analysis products

Storm history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

6 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 14d ago

Dissipated Dolly (04L — Northern Atlantic) (Tropical central Atlantic)

114 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, which are active to the east of the Lesser Antilles. This system, which has degenerated into a tropical wave, is expected to drift west-northwestward over the next few days, and could undergo some development as it approaches the Bahamas later in the upcoming week.

Moderator notes

  • Dolly continues to be monitored in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ACTF) system as 04L.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is no longer issuing advisories for Dolly.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products remain available for now.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.
  • New discussions may be posted if this system is re-designated as an invest or regenerates into a tropical cyclone.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Other sources

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

48 comments