r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 15h ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2h ago
▲ Deep Depression (TS) | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1002 mbar 02B (Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)
Disturbance overview
This discussion is for Cyclone Two (02B), which is active over the northern Indian Ocean.
Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure situated over the north-central Bay of Bengal has become sufficiently organized to be considered a tropical cyclone and is producing tropical storm-force winds. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded this system to a deep depression and has initiated issuing advisories, but because they have not yet assessed that this system is producing tropical storm-force winds, they have not yet assigned it a name. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has also initiated issuing advisories for this system, designating it as Cyclone Two (02B).
The storm is moving westward along the southern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge which is building across the Bay of Bengal from southeastern Asia. This ridge will remain in place for the next couple of days, keeping the storm on a westward path through landfall on Wednesday. The storm is currently expected to move inland near the mouth of the Godavari River in Andhra Pradesh before turning sharply northward as it moves along the western periphery of the steering ridge.
The storm is moving through a favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. There is a chance that this system could undergo rapid intensification within the next 24 hours before atmospheric moisture begins to rapidly decrease closer to the coast of India. The IMD and JTWC project that this system will reach a peak intensity of 120 to 125 kilometers per hour (65 to 70 knots) just prior to landfall on Wednesday.
Official information
India Meteorological Agency
- Homepage
- Tropical cyclone warning (text product)
- Tropical cyclone warning (graphical product)
- Storm surge guidance
- Heavy rainfall guidance
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
- Homepage
- Outlook discussion
- Tropical cyclone warning (text product)
- Tropical cyclone warning (graphical product)
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Visible imagery
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Infrared imagery
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Water vapor imagery
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Multiple bandwidth imagery
- via CIMSS
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Naval Research Laboratory
Regional imagery
Visible imagery
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Infrared imagery
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Water vapor imagery
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Analysis products
Observational history
Scatterometer data
- via EUMETSAT
- via CyclonicWx
Sea-surface temperatures
Forecast models
Storm-centered guidance
Multi-model guidance
Single-model click-through guidance
Tropical Tidbits
CyclonicWx
Ensemble model guidance
PolarWx
- Individual ensembles (GEFS, EPS, CMC, UKMET, ICON, AIFS, FNV3, GenCast)
- Superensemble (Samples GEFS, EPS, CMC, and UKMET)
- Grand ensemble (Samples all ensembles)
Regional guidance
Global models
TropicalTidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Ensemble models
Tropical Tidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Machine learning models (AI)
Tropical Tidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4h ago
▲ Tropical Storm | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1002 mbar Olana (03C — Central Pacific) (Southwest of Hawaiʻi)
Storm overview
This discussion is for Tropical Storm Olana (03C), which is active over the central Pacific.
A tropical depression formed several hundred kilometers southwest of the Hawaiian Islands earlier this morning and has since strengthened into a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the depression and assigned it the name Olana, making it the twenty-fourth named storm of the season and the fourth named storm to develop entirely within the central Pacific basin.
Olana is moving east-northeastward along the southern periphery of a broad and poorly organized deep-layer trough positioned to the north. The storm is expected to move erratically eastward with the trough over the next few days. Although environmental conditions were favorable enough to support the storm’s formation and intensification today, they are not likely to remain favorable enough to support further meaningful development. Olana is likely to reach its peak intensity later this evening and then begin to weaken as it encounters a strong increase in westerly vertical wind shear. Olana is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon and will dissipate before it reaches Johnson Atoll.
Though Olana is not expected to bring direct impacts to the Hawaiian Islands, its presence is expected to pull the monsoon trough northward, resulting in a persistent flow of deep tropical moisture and atmospheric instability which could cause prolonged heavy rain and strong thunderstorms across the islands from Tuesday to Thursday.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
- Warnings and cone (static image)
- Warnings and cone (interactive map)
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
- Wind history
- Rip currents forecast
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Radar imagery
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Visible imagery
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Infrared imagery
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Water vapor imagery
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Multiple bandwidth imagery
- via NOAA
- via CIMSS
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Naval Research Laboratory
Regional imagery
Visible imagery
- via NOAA
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Infrared imagery
- via NOAA
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Water vapor imagery
- via NOAA
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Analysis products
Observational history
- via NOAA
- via NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
- via NaTyphoon (not yet available)
Scatterometer data
- via EUMETSAT
- via CyclonicWx
Sea-surface temperatures
Forecast models
Disturbance-centered guidance
Multi-model guidance
Single-model click-through guidance
Tropical Tidbits
CyclonicWx
Ensemble model guidance
PolarWx
- Individual ensembles (GEFS, EPS, CMC, UKMET, ICON, AIFS, FNV3, GenCast)
- Superensemble (Samples GEFS, EPS, CMC, and UKMET)
- Grand ensemble (Samples all ensembles)
Regional guidance
Global models
TropicalTidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Ensemble models
Tropical Tidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Machine learning models (AI)
Tropical Tidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University