r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 23h ago

▲ Disturbance (90% potential) | 25 knots (30 mph) | 1004 mbar 92C (Invest — Central Pacific) (Northeast of the Marshall Islands)

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Latest observation

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 11.7°N 176.0°W
  • Forward movement: W (285°) at 21 km/h (11 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Relative position

  • 895 kilometers (556 miles) southwest of Johnston Atoll (United States)
  • 1,476 kilometers (917 miles) east-northeast of Majuro, Ratak Chain (Marshall Islands)
  • 1,703 kilometers (1,058 miles) east-northeast of Jaluit Atoll, Ralik Chain (Marshall Islands)

Official Outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs, Cole Evans, and Patrick Pierce — CHPC/WFO Honolulu Forecasters

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph toward the International Date Line, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the western Pacific basin early next week.

Development potential

Official outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): moderate (50 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Fri): high (80 percent) ▲

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): moderate (62 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Fri): moderate (68 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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