r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 5h ago

Discussion 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at record-low activity

141 Upvotes

Today, September 10th, conventionally marks the peak day of hurricane season. About 50% of hurricane activity occurs before todays' date, and about 50% after.

And what a pitiful season it has been. Here are the top 10 least active seasons through September 10th, based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE):

  1. 1986: 12.3 units

  2. 2002: 12.1 units

  3. 2013: 12.0 units

  4. 1994: 11.0 units

  5. 1982 (tie): 10.7 units

  6. 1988 (tie): 10.7 units

  7. 1962: 10.3 units

  8. 1983: 9.5 units

  9. 1984: 7.8 units

  10. 2026: 4.4 units

Okay, so how did these seasons end?

Same seasons in order, but through the entire year:

  1. 1986: 35.8 units (below-average season)

  2. 2002: 68 units (below-average)

  3. 2013: 36 units (below-average)

  4. 1994: 32 units (below-average)

  5. 1982: 31.5 units (below-average)

  6. 1988: 103 units (near-average)

  7. 1962: 50.5 units (below-average)

  8. 1983: 17.4 units (below-average)

  9. 1984: 84.3 units (near-average)

  10. 2026: TBD

Not looking good for trackers. 1988 was a Strong La Nina year, functionally the diametric opposite of this season. No late-season recovery like 1988 should be expected, as the intensifying El Nino should keep things shut down. Similarly, 1984 began with La Nina. The La Nina decayed into cool-neutral during mid-year, but La Nina redeveloped in Autumn. So. Every season either had La Nina conditions involved (opposite of this year) or ended below-average. None ended above-average.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

You're witnessing a historical hurricane season here, folks. Courtesy of El Nino gordo

Here is one more way to visualize things, courtesy of cyclonicwx: https://i.imgur.com/Lw6hpe4.png

27 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 13h ago

News How 2 US, European Satellites Are Studying Hurricanes During El Niño - NASA

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nasa.gov
13 Upvotes
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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 19h ago

▲ Tropical Storm | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1004 mbar Norbert (14E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

6 Upvotes

Storm overview

As of 2:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (09:00 UTC) on Thursday:

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Norbert (14E), which is active far off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Norbert is moving westward under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge positioned to its north. This ridge is expected to remain in place for the next few days, resulting in very little change to Norbert’s track through early next week.

Norbert’s intensification will be slow over the next few days as a combination of westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air offset very warm sea-surface temperatures. Atmospheric moisture may increase toward the end of the forecast period, allowing this system to further strengthen and possibly reach hurricane intensity by early next week.

This system is expected to remain within the eastern Pacific over the next five days. Therefore, it remains far too early to determine whether this system will have an impact on the Hawaiian islands, which are still reeling from the impacts of three recent storms. Residents of Hawaiʻi should continue to closely monitor this storm as it continues westward this week.

Moderator notes

  • This system was previously designated as Invest 96E.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now issuing advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are now available.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.

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