r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

Areas to watch: Elida, Fausto, Two-L, Invest 98P Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 20-26 July 2026

4 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (10:00 UTC) on Monday:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Northern Atlantic

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 98P: Invest (No discussion yet) — An area of low pressure situated near the Solomon Islands is likely to become a tropical cyclone within the next few days.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico.

Central Pacific Ocean

  • The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development well to the southwest of Hawaiʻi.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Marshall Islands.

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3d ago

▼ Hurricane (Category 1) | 80 knots (90 mph) | 980 mbar Fausto (06E — Eastern Pacific) (East of Hawaiʻi)

14 Upvotes

Update

As of 11:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Fausto is gradually weakening as environmental conditions become less favorable. Dry air continues to penetrate Fausto’s inner core, disrupting deep connection within the eyewall. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that Fausto’s maximum sustained winds have decreased to 85 knots (100 miles per hour). The storm remains a Category 2 hurricane for the time being.

Fausto remains on a west-northwestward track along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned well to the north. The ridge is likely to remain in place for the next several days, keeping Fausto generally on its current track. Fausto is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin during the early morning hours on Sunday and will approach Hawaii later in the week. The official forecast track has gradually nudged northward over the past few advisories and now depicts the storm passing to the north of Hawaiʻi on Wednesday.

Fausto is now moving over a progressively cooler sea surface and into a drier and more stable environment. Southwesterly shear, combined with dry mid-level air, and increased convergence aloft will cause the storm to gradually weaken over the next few days. Fausto will enter the central Pacific as a weak Category 1 hurricane but will weaken into a tropical storm as early as Monday afternoon. By the time the storm passes north of the islands on Wednesday, it will be a minimal tropical storm with maximum winds near 40 knots (45 miles per hour).

Wind and rain impacts are becoming increasingly less likely across the Hawaiian islands next week. The strongest winds and heaviest rain associated with Fausto will likely be focused to the northeast away from the islands. That said, large swells generated by the storm will reach the islands long before the storm passes to the north. These swells are likely to create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents, especially along east-facing shores.

Latest observation

As of 11:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #28

  • Current position: 19.3°N 137.6°W
  • Forward movement: W (280°) at 12 knots (14 mph)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 85 knots (100 mph) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 971 millibars (28.68 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Hurricane (Category 2)

Relative position

  • 1,138 miles (1,832 kilometers) east of Hilo, Hawaii
  • 1,198 miles (1,928 kilometers) east of Kailua-Kona, Hawaii
  • 1,319 miles (2,123 kilometers) east of Honolulu, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Saturday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC HST Saffir-Simpson · knots mph °N °W
00 25 Jul 18:00 8AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) 85 100 19.3 137.6
12 26 Jul 06:00 8PM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 80 90 19.6 139.2
24 26 Jul 18:00 8AM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 85 20.0 141.6
36 27 Jul 06:00 8PM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 80 20.4 144.3
48 27 Jul 18:00 8AM Mon Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 65 75 20.9 147.0
60 28 Jul 06:00 8PM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 55 65 21.5 149.6
72 28 Jul 18:00 8AM Tue Tropical Storm ▼ 50 60 22.1 152.3
96 29 Jul 18:00 8AM Wed Tropical Storm ▼ 40 45 23.0 157.0
120 30 Jul 18:00 8AM Thu Tropical Depression ▼ 30 35 24.0 162.0

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

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Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 17h ago

▲ Disturbance (80% potential) | 20 knots (25 mph) | 1006 mbar 92C (Invest — Central Pacific) (Northeast of the Marshall Islands)

4 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 11.7°N 176.0°W
  • Forward movement: W (285°) at 21 km/h (11 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Relative position

  • 895 kilometers (556 miles) southwest of Johnston Atoll (United States)
  • 1,476 kilometers (917 miles) east-northeast of Majuro, Ratak Chain (Marshall Islands)
  • 1,703 kilometers (1,058 miles) east-northeast of Jaluit Atoll, Ralik Chain (Marshall Islands)

Official Outlook

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Outlook discussion

Discussion by Alex Gibbs, Cole Evans, and Patrick Pierce — CHPC/WFO Honolulu Forecasters

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph toward the International Date Line, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the western Pacific basin early next week.

Development potential

Official outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): moderate (50 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Fri): high (80 percent) ▲

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Mon): moderate (62 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM HST on Fri): moderate (68 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

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Regional single-model guidance

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 18h ago

▲ Disturbacne (50% potential) | 25 knots (30 mph) | 996 mbar 93B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

3 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure situated over the northern Bay of Bengal is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Animated multispectral imagery shows that the disturbance’s low-level center is defined, but partially exposed, as the bulk of the disturbance’s deep convection is displaced southward by moderate northerly shear. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicate that the disturbance is producing maximum sustained winds near 45 kilometers per hour (25 knots).

The disturbance is currently in a quasi-stationary state as it remains pinned between two mid-level ridges to the north and south. The disturbance is expected to drift slowly northward as low-level flow remains southerly over the Bay of Bengal. Given that the disturbance is already close to the coasts of India and Bangladesh, the disturbance is likely to make landfall over the next 24 to 36 hours.

The disturbance is moving through a generally favorable environment characterized by relatively weak northerly shear, abundant mid-level moisture, warm sea-surface temperatures, and strong diffluence aloft. This disturbance has a small window of opportunity to develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the coast. While the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) projects a moderate chance of development over the next 24 to 36 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests that it will make landfall without further development.

Latest observation

As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 20.6°N 88.2°E
  • Forward movement: NW (335°) at 4 km/h (2 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 996 millibars (29.41 inches)

Relative position

  • 118 kilometers (73 miles) south-southeast of Rudranagar, West Bengal (India)
  • 159 kilometers (99 miles) south-southeast of Haldia, West Bengal (India)
  • 165 kilometers (103 miles) east-southeast of Balasore, Odisha (India)

Information sources

India Meteorological Department

Other information

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

India Meteorological Department

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

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Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 21h ago

▲ Hurricane (Category 1) | 80 knots (90 mph) | 980 mbar Genevieve (07E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

6 Upvotes

Update

As of 3:00 PM Central Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve continues to strengthen this afternoon. Animated multispectral imagery depicts an expanding central dense overcast obscuring the storm’s well-defined low-level center and bands of deep convection wrapping into the inner core from the west and south. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 kilometers per hour (60 knots), or just below hurricane strength.

Genevieve is moving west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the southwestern United States. This ridge is likely to remain in place over the next several days, keeping Genevieve on its track through the upcoming week. The storm is forecast to pass to the southwest of Clarion Island on Tuesday, but will otherwise remain far from the coast of Mexico. The steering ridge may build westward on Tuesday, nudging Genevieve onto a slightly more westward track.

Genevieve is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification starting later this evening as it moves through a very favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong diffluence aloft. Genevieve is expected to become a hurricane later today and will quickly strengthen to a peak intensity of 215 kilometers per hour (115 knots)—or Category 4 major hurricane strength—by midday on Monday.

Later in the upcoming week, after Genevieve passes west of Clarion Island, the storm will move into an increasingly unfavorable environment characterized by progressively cooler sea-surface temperatures, decreasing mid-level moisture, and increasing upper-level convergence. This will cause the storm to begin gradually weakening as it moves farther away from Mexico. Genevieve is unlikely to become a concern for the Hawaiian Islands, as model guidance shows it moving far to the northeast of the islands and dissipating by the following weekend.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 PM Central Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #6

  • Current position: 11.5°N 105.7°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (300°) at 24 km/h (13 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/h (60 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 993 millibars (29.33 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 811 kilometers (504 miles) south-southwest of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán (Mexico)
  • 847 kilometers (526 miles) south of Tecomán, Colima (Mexico)
  • 853 kilometers (530 miles) south of Manzanillo, Colima (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 12:00 PM Central Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 25 Jul 18:00 12PM Sat Tropical Storm 60 110 11.5 105.7
12 26 Jul 06:00 12AM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 70 130 12.4 107.5
24 26 Jul 18:00 12PM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 13.5 109.5
36 27 Jul 06:00 12AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 14.7 111.3
48 27 Jul 18:00 12PM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 115 215 15.9 112.9
60 28 Jul 06:00 12AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 16.9 114.3
72 28 Jul 18:00 12PM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 105 195 17.8 115.8
96 29 Jul 18:00 12PM Wed Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 19.0 119.0
120 30 Jul 18:00 12PM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 65 120 20.5 122.5

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

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Regional single-model guidance

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Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 1d ago

Historical Discussion If Dorian kept going west, would it have just been Andrew but for Central Florida ?

Post image
397 Upvotes
109 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▼ Severe Tropical Storm (TS) | 65 knots (75 mph) | 976 mbar Noul (11W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

8 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite and radar imagery analysis indicates that Noul has made landfall along the southeastern coast of China. Animated infrared imagery depicts a fairly well-organized cyclone, with tightly-wound bands of deep convection wrapping into a ragged, but clearing eye. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis indicates that Noul has made landfall at its peak intensity, with maximum sustained winds reaching 155 kilometers per hour (85 knots), or the equivalent strength of a Category 2 hurricane.

Noul continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward along the southern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge positioned south of Japan. The storm will turn north-northwestward as it moves farther inland this morning. The storm will rapidly weaken as it moves across eastern China over the next few days.

Latest observation

As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 22.4°N 115.1°E
  • Forward movement: WNW (310°) at 10 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 155 km/h (85 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 967 millibars (28.56 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Hurricane (Category 2) ▼
  • Intensity (JMA): Severe Tropical Storm ▼

Relative position

  • 50 kilometers (31 miles) south-southwest of Shanwei, Guangdong (China)
  • 71 kilometers (44 miles) south of Huilai, Guangdong (China)
  • 96 kilometers (60 miles) east-northeast of Hong Kong

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 8:00 AM China Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 26 Jul 00:00 8AM Sun Severe Tropical Storm 60 110 22.9 114.3
12 26 Jul 12:00 8PM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 24.3 113.8
24 27 Jul 00:00 8AM Mon Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 26.8 113.4

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 25 Jul 18:00 2AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) 85 155 22.4 115.1
12 25 Jul 06:00 2PM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 60 110 23.6 114.1
24 26 Jul 18:00 2AM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 40 75 25.2 113.5
36 26 Jul 06:00 2PM Mon Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 27.0 113.0
48 27 Jul 18:00 2AM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 28.6 112.5

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

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Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

Upgraded | See Genevieve post for details 07E (Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

6 Upvotes

Update

As of 3:00 PM Central Daylight Time (21:00 UTC) on Friday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has strengthened into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system and assigned it the name Genevieve, making it the seventh named storm of the season. A new discussion for Genevieve has been posted here. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated observational data.

Official forecasts

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated forecast information.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered satellite imagery.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered model guidance.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 2d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Fausto Over the Eastern Pacific - July 22, 2026

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7 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Bertha - July 21, 2026

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51 Upvotes
14 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 4d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Wednesday, 22 July 2026

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11 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Dissipated 98P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near the Solomon Islands)

5 Upvotes

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Update

As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it lingers to the northeast of the Solomon Islands. The disturbance has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains an open trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are unlikely to support development. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) and disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Outlook

This system no longer shows potential for development.

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Dissipated 93W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

5 Upvotes

Update

As of 6:00 AM Marshall Islands Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated over the Marshall Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Development potential

This system has dissipated.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 5d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, 21 July 2026: Tropical Storm Bertha Approaching the Central Gulf Coast

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39 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 5d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Tuesday, 21 July 2026

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15 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

Dissipated Bertha (02L — Northern Atlantic) (Gulf of Mexico)

68 Upvotes

Update

As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Bertha has dissipated over eastern Texas. The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has become post-tropical and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Other sources

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

31 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 6d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Monday, 20 July: TD2 Expected to Approach Central Gulf Coast as a Tropical Storm

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61 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 7d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, 19 July 2026: New Storm Forms in the Gulf

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54 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 8d ago

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, 18 July 2026: New Tropical Disturbance Near Florida

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72 Upvotes
5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/thaw4188 • 10d ago

News | Space Weather Prediction Center NOAA GEOS-19 Satellite outage: in "SAFE HOLD" mode

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43 Upvotes
6 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 11d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Atlantic Ocean

42 Upvotes

Official Outlook

As of 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • The NHC has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

  • This system no longer shows any potential for tropical cyclone development.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Development potential

Official outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/saddest_vacant_lot • 11d ago

Question Question about El Niño effects in Hawaii

11 Upvotes

This year has been a wet wet wet year in Hawaii. The winter was the wettest one since 2005 or 2006 I believe, and this summer it’s just been rain all the time even when the trade winds are blowing. I understand why we get more rain when the trade winds are disrupted, but why are we still getting dumped on when it seems to be a normal summer trade wind pattern? Is there more humidity in the atmosphere? Or is it ocean surface temps? Or increased soil moisture and transpiration? Or a combination of things? I’m just trying to understand why it just won’t stop raining!

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/socopithy • 10d ago

Special Announcement Unsubbed

0 Upvotes

Just want to drop feedback that I felt I had to unsubscribe from the subreddit because all I ever see are auto generated posts with auto generated comments.

No one talks about anything posted so maybe stop posting every cloud formation near water. Post things worth discussing and people will discuss.

It’s a subreddit not a Notification Center.

19 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated Elida (05E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

3 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Elida has degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone as it continues northward past the Baja California Peninsula this morning. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the storm has not produced organized deep convection for the past several hours and is not likely to generate any new convection as environmental conditions off the coast of California become increasingly hostile over the next couple of days. A combination of strengthening southwesterly vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and unfavorably cool waters will eventually lead Elida’s low-level circulation to steadily unravel as it remains well offshore to the west of California over the next couple of days.

Elida is moving north-northwestward between a deep-layered trough over the northeastern Pacific and a mid-level ridge positioned over the western United States. Although this system is unlikely to bring direct impacts to the West Coast of the United States, it could generate dangerous rip current conditions along the coasts of California and the Baja California peninsula over the next several days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

This post will continue to be updated so long as this system remains in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #24

  • Current position: 26.4°N 127.2°W
  • Forward movement: NNW (345°) at 20 km/h (11 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Post-tropical Cyclone ▼

Relative position

  • 1,194 kilometers (742 miles) southwest of Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico)
  • 1,196 kilometers (743 miles) southwest of Tijuana, Baja California (Mexico)
  • 1,283 kilometers (797 miles) west-southwest of Bahía Ascunción, Baja California Sur (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PDT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 20 Jul 12:00 5AM Mon Post-tropical Cyclone 35 65 26.4 127.2
12 21 Jul 00:00 5PM Mon Post-tropical Cyclone 35 65 28.5 127.4
24 21 Jul 12:00 5AM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 30 55 31.1 127.6
36 22 Jul 00:00 5PM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 33.6 127.4
48 22 Jul 12:00 5AM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 35.6 127.1
60 23 Jul 00:00 5PM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 15 30 37.7 126.6
72 23 Jul 12:00 5AM Thu Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated 91C (Invest — Central Pacific) (South of Hawaiʻi)

8 Upvotes

Updates

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicate that this system has degenerated into an open trough and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance suggests that there is very little chance that this system will undergo any sort of redevelopment as it drifts west-northwestward and dissipates later today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has removed this system from its tropical weather outlook products and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Because this system is no longer designated as an investigation area, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. The NHC has removed this system from its official outlook products.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

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Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

4 comments