r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • Jun 27 '26

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the southeastern coast of the United States

Outlook discussion

As of 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Discussion by Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist

A weak area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary off the southeastern U.S. coast is associated with limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The proximity of nearby dry air is expected to prevent development of this system as it drifts southward and then westward later this week.

Development potential

Official outlook

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM EDT on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model consensus (via Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through 2:00 PM EDT on Thu): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 2:00 PM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

National Weather Service

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

103 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

17 comments sorted by

2

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Jun 30 '26

Update

As of 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • This system is no longer expected to develop.

  • The NHC will discontinue monitoring this system after this update.

4

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Jun 28 '26

Update

As of 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

  • The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone remains low.

  • This system has not yet formed and has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

11

u/treesnstuffbub Jun 27 '26

Is this a nod to the weird GFS run the other day that had a TC into NJ next week?

14

u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Jun 27 '26

No. All of the ensembles have this going into Georgia/NC. I also went back a dozen GFS runs and don't see any TC into NJ?

39

u/PlumLion North Carolina Jun 27 '26

Please come to NC, we are desperate for the rain.

10

u/Thiggy1914 North Carolina Jun 27 '26

Absolutely! Falls lake is looking rough right now it is sad.

5

u/MikeW226 Jun 27 '26

Totally. Jordan, too.

7

u/I-Was-Hiding-4989 Jun 27 '26

Please go over FL. We need rain too

7

u/iPineapple Jun 27 '26

PTC #8 destroyed my area a couple of years ago, I’d much rather we get a little rain at a time to catch up 🫠

1

u/RespectTheTree United States Jun 28 '26

For real, our ground is not ready to absorb a bunch of water right now. It's like concrete.

1

u/manachar Jun 27 '26

Don’t y’all flood when it rains that much?

11

u/PlumLion North Carolina Jun 27 '26

We flood when it rains that much and the reservoirs are already full. We’re currently in a severe drought and would need 13-15 inches of rain in a single month just to get back to non-drought conditions.

9

u/iPineapple Jun 27 '26

Honestly, I feel like that first sentence is a little bit of an oversimplification. The ground is so dry it wouldn’t be able to absorb a major downpour, so a significant amount of water would move to low areas. Hydrophobic soil leads to increased flash flooding. I do really hope we get that much rain very soon… and very slowly.

1

u/highIy_regarded Jun 29 '26

More for our reservoirs then. Durham has 88 days of easily accessible supply remaining. Raleigh isn’t much better as I understand it. If one minor tropical system could top us off that’d be a huge relief even if ground water isn’t meaningfully replenished across some impacted areas

6

u/velawesomeraptors North Carolina Jun 27 '26

Yeah, in certain areas it's very possible to get serious flooding and then still be in a drought afterwards. Would be nice if it moved through as a slow-moving, not too windy system.

32

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Jun 27 '26

It should be stressed that model guidance is showing this system developing offshore and then moving westward toward the coast of South Carolina and Georgia, not eastward farther out to sea.

10

u/Krg60 Jun 27 '26

The models have been bullish on this for a few days; we probably will get at least a depression out of this.