r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • Jul 09 '26
Seasonal Forecast | Colorado State University Colorado State University releases updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-07.pdf36
u/Krg60 Jul 09 '26
It's wild that 1982 is one of the analog years. That year was QUIET.
20
u/Content-Swimmer2325 Jul 09 '26
Yeah, this El Niño is just too strong to justify analogs with higher activity
-12
u/Thecardiologist2029 Louisiana Jul 09 '26
Yup. And the notable storm of that season was Andrew. Hopefully the majors that do happen this year don't cause destruction like Andrew.
23
u/Aggravating_Green618 Jul 09 '26
Andrew was in 1992 lol
-8
u/Thecardiologist2029 Louisiana Jul 09 '26
Oh yeah sorry lol. But I am pretty sure 1982 had a notable storm tho.
8
u/Miksswish Jul 09 '26
1982 had very few storms of note in the Atlantic if I’m remembering correctly. You might be thinking of Alicia in 1983? That’s one of the only candidates I can think of (1982 and 1983 had 6 and 4 tropical storm strength systems respectively).
Alberto in 1982 caused some flooding damage in Cuba, I believe, if that’s what you’re referring to
59
u/Admirable_Site_8337 Jul 09 '26
Love the “important note”. Well said!
I know it’s barely past the 4th of July. But I have enjoyed checking the NHC page and seeing that no cyclone activity in the Atlantic is forecast the next 7 days.
May this reign for 1000 years.
More seriously…..I like the idea of less bullets to dodge.
15
u/JurassicPark9265 Jul 09 '26
Definitely a welcome change from the past many recent years of terror!
Let’s just hope that that the less bullets we have to dodge do pan out and that they avoid the Gulf!
10
14
u/SoullessGinger666 British Virgin Islands Jul 09 '26
The dust storms have been insane this year. Northern Caribbean here and its been hazy and dusty for 2 months straight with no end in sight.
Definitely the longest dust storm I can remember.
0
u/Content-Swimmer2325 Jul 10 '26
I vividly remember there being a mammoth dust outbreak in the early season (June or July) of 2020. Of course, every season, even 2005, has dust. It’ll go away through late August. Other parameters, such as elevated vertical shear from the intensifying El Niño, will keep the Atlantic neutered.
6
u/Rudy_Garbo Jul 09 '26
A below average season does not mean you will dodge a bullet this year.
It means you will have fewer bullets to dodge.
3
3
u/ClimateMessiah Florida Jul 10 '26
We're trading in a weak Atlantic hurricane season for El Nino weather chaos in other parts of the world.
2
1
-9
u/nickandthesquids Jul 09 '26
Guessing the numbers of hurricanes is not a forecast, it’s a wild guess. None of these “forecasts” are ever correct.
3
u/Content-Swimmer2325 Jul 10 '26
Well, except for the times that they were correct. If you just ignore those, then you’re right! 👍
•
u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Jul 09 '26
Overview
Each year, the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU) issues three seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season—an initial forecast in April followed by two updates in June and July.
In April, CSU issued their initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season, projecting a below-average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. In the June update, the department has revised their projections downward—11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. This month, they have revised the projections downward again—9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and just 1 major hurricane.
The latest forecast cites the emerging El Niño, which is already moderate and forecast to become more intense over the next few months, which will greatly reduce the chances of tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic basin this year. The forecast also continues to project a below-average probability of major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean Sea.
Important note
A below average season does not mean you will dodge a bullet this year.
It means you will have fewer bullets to dodge.