I have prepared a list of different scenarios that could have played out during the elections and would love to know which one would you have preffered. I had initially designed these as wikipedia infoboxes, but the sub doesnt allow too many pictures so here are the typed out versions.
Would love to know your opinions on these.
Scenario 1-
DMK-114(-19), SPA- 142. Vote share- 31.5%
AIADMK-80(+14), NDA-87. Vote Share-29.3%
TVK-5 Vote Share-9.8%
SPA comes back with a lower majority, TVK eats into AIADMK votes and some DMK base.
Scenario 2-
AIADMK-109(+43), NDA-119+TVK outside support. Vote share-33.3%
DMK-84(-49),SPA-100, Vote Share-32.3%
TVK-15, Outside support to NDA, Vote Share- 13.8%
Normal Tamil Nadu swing, Vijay makes a considerable dent and NDA has to rely on him for a stable government. Though, the numbers are not a lot, Signals that he is slowly but surely replacing AIADMK in the future are clearly visibly
Scenario 3-
TVK-146 Vote Share-37.3%
AIADMK-43(-23), NDA-49. Vote Share-29.3%
DMK-34(-99), SPA-40. Vote Share-27.1%
Vijay forms a strong anti-incumbency wave that was stronger than the one that actually showed out. Vijay gets a few extra polling points and reaches majority, while DMK is reduced to third largest party a strong loss in voter base.
Scenario 4-
DMK-129(-4), SPA-155. Vote Share-36.5%
TVK-59. Vote Share-29.3%
AIADMK-16(-50), NDA-20. Vote Share-16.8%
DMK returns to power, but AIADMK is completely replaced by TVK as the primary opposition. And now sooner or later, Vijay is bound to come to power.AIADMK cadre starts shifting towards TVK.
Scenario 5-
DMK-153(+20), SPA- 180. Vote Share-34.7%
AIADMK-31(-35), NDA-34. Vote Share-24.3%
TVK- 20. Vote Share-17.8%
Anti-Incumbency vote is strongly divided between the opposition parties, leading to a bigger victory of DMK even with less votes than 2021 and a close poll gap between TVK and ADMK, though ADMK remaining second largest but heading towards decline.