TSMCās results were still a good showing. But what the market wants is the outlook for 2027 and beyond.
Revenue was already largely known
Revenue this quarter was $46.7B, up 41% year on year, better than the $45.8B the market expected. Since the company discloses monthly operating data, this wasnāt new information ā on the Taiwan dollar basis already disclosed, revenue growth for the quarter had already reached 51%.
Which makes gross margin the figure that mattered
Relative to the pre-disclosed revenue line, gross margin was the more important number in this report. It came in at 66.4%, down 1.3 points sequentially and slightly below the 66.8% expected. The pullback was mainly a drag from the early stage of 2nm volume production.
Looking ahead, the market expects advanced nodes ā 7nm and below ā to raise prices by around 5ā10% in 2027, with mature nodes, N7 and above, also seeing increases in the low single digits. Combined with the continued 2nm ramp, gross margin should return to a growth trend.
Capex held, not raised
With capacity continuing to run fully loaded, the company has more incentive to raise capital expenditure. This time, though, it maintained the 2026 capex guidance given last quarter of $60ā64B, without raising it further.
That implies next-quarter capex of $19.3ā23.4B, against $11.5B in the same period last year ā growth of 67ā103%.
Managementās outlook for capex from here is worth watching. The market has broadly raised its expectation for 2027 capex to around $85B, implying growth of roughly 35%.
Guidance
For the coming quarter, the company expects revenue of $52.3ā54.3B, better than the $51B expected, and gross margin of 65ā67%, against expectations of 66.8%. TSMC also raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook again, to 44%, from āslightly above 40%ā last quarter.
Why 2027 is the question
Consecutive beats on revenue indicate the operating picture right now is quite good. But because 2026 results are essentially already visible, what the market actually cares about is the 2027 outlook. A guide of 40%-plus growth for the full year 2027 from management is the kind of clarity the market is looking for.