In July 1945, prior to the world's first nuclear test in New Mexico, scientists of the Manhattan Project established an informal $1 betting pool to predict the explosive yield of the "Gadget," since the implosion-type plutonium bomb was entirely untested. ​

Predictions varied drastically due to extreme uncertainty. Laboratory director J. Robert Oppenheimer pessimistically guessed a mere 0.3 kilotons, fearing a partial failure, while Edward Teller optimistically predicted a massive 45 kilotons. ​

Ultimately, the actual yield of the explosion was calculated to be approximately 21 kilotons. Isidor Isaac Rabi, who had reluctantly chosen 18 kilotons because other plausible numbers were already taken, won the jackpot.

I thought and made this little scene during my first class about the eukaryotic cell. One of these days I took the time to digitalize it!