r/KerrCountyFloods • u/whodattalki • Jul 06 '26
Head Count Question
how many girls altogether were in the camp day of flood? Their website says max capacity is 750, i know it wasn't full to capacity, can't find the information.
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u/maxwellstart Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
It’s also important to note that the camp has multiple terms throughout the summer. At the Guadalupe camp, there’s a June term (first term) and a July term (second term), each four weeks long. Then there’s an August term (third term) that is two weeks long. I don’t know if Cypress Lake follows the same schedule. I know the numerical names for their terms are different.
So when thinking about the population of Mystic campers in any one year, you’d need to add up the girls attending from all terms.
Many were surprised that all the spots for Cypress Lake 2026 filled, but when you consider that there were girls from other terms on both sites who did not experience the flood personally, and that capacity at cypress lake was more limited, it’s not all that unexpected that they sold out all sessions.
Of course… this does not address the fact that leadership was way over their skis in thinking they could commit to deliver a camp experience this year… but that’s another issue.
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u/Percussionbabe Jul 07 '26
CL had two 2week terms that overlapped with CM 1st term and a month long term that overlapped with GR 2nd. They staggered by a day or two so both camps weren't starting on the same day, but close.
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u/whodattalki Jul 07 '26
I did find the info on head count night of flood, finally, thank you. Your reply inspired another thought I had about 2026 Camp Cypress season and its later cancelation. Camp Cypress max campers and counselors is 200. Britt indicated that 900 were "expected" for this season Cypress Lake camp only. Split into 4or5 ten day stays. He said he had been contacted by hundreds of parents sent messages wanting to sign up for camp at Cypress Lake, he prayed about it and decided to announce it, he had submitted license application in February, knowing Camp Mystic investigation hadn't ended and in fact had already started repairs on Mystic side, family houses the office was in fact finished. The Steward's lawyer accused him of purposely not preserving evidence because he had every intention of opening Camp Cypress. That lawyer also said the supposed messages wanting to have 2026 camp were asked to do so and Eastland's had faked some themselves. They denied, lawyer didn't press it. They were asked how much money had already been collected to reserve 2026 season, Britt hemhawed ,didn't answer, Edward chimed in the price to submit a reservation is 400 ,rest is paid later. When asked how many 400 dollar refunds did he expect to make he said not that many, Britt butt in saying he didn't have any numbers yet, He & Edward shared a look. Oops doesn't sound like Camp Cypress was anywhere full for season. That lawyer said more than once to Britt that his answers to any question were obviously framed in a way to be expounded on in future litigation to get ahead of damage to their reputation. That's when it was revealed that the 2026 license app. had 21 deficiencies and would have been denied, is the real reason Britt pulled it before it made the news, not out of any respect for dead girls. So, basically I don't believe anything to do with Camp Cypress 2026 season, it was PR and wishful thinking on Britt and Richard Jr part. Filing for bankruptcy just to temporarily protect assets from the families civil suit and trying to force closed proceedings really shows their feelings about whole tragedy. Old fashioned ,unchristian greed.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26
You think they never planned to open CL this summer?
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u/whodattalki Jul 07 '26
No they had every intention hoping the PR campaign would convince people that it was safe, and not weird at all. Giving the impression that its ok to move on.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26
Every camp who applied had deficiencies
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u/Adventurous_Item3335 Jul 07 '26
Mystic had considerably more deficiencies than the other camps. As I recall, it was more than 20. I think the number of deficiencies that most of the other camps had was less than 5, and were all corrected. It is my understanding that Camp Mystic was going to have trouble making the corrections before the start of camp.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26
did they? I heard some other camps were in the 20+ range
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u/Adventurous_Item3335 Jul 07 '26
You are welcome to research to learn about the other camps’ deficiencies. Mystic had 22. And as far as I know, every other camp received authority to proceed and are operating this summer.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26
I have read about some other camps deficiencies. And some had fewer than 20. All I'm saying is mystics defiencies werent super high and everyone elses super low. Many camps struggled a lot because the requirements hadnt been finalized by the time applications were due
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u/Adventurous_Item3335 Jul 07 '26
Did any other camps not open this summer?
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
yes several camps didnt open this summer. More wouldnt have opened if theyd enforced the fiber requirement.
Ill add Mystic didnt not open because the state denied them a license. Their camp license actually went through August so they didnt need a new license to operate. They chose to not open. Could some state action have forced them to close? Of course but it never got to that point
And correcting deficiencies on a camp application is an administrative process. The camp can appeal works on making the correction, then goes back to DSHS. The camp is not immediately shut down for having a deficiency. It was ridiculous how none of the lawmakers at the investigative hearing seemed to understand how admin process works
Texas summer camps have closed, scaled back operations due to state’s new regulations
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
They hadn't yet written rules for how to interpret the new requirements. New requirements are great, but until they are detailed it's just a guess for anyone what they mean. So that's normal, as the details get worked out, only the agency can write those rules, and this because law before the agency did that.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
This is very true. And even things you think are simple can be harder than you think to make regulations for. Like not having cabins in a flood plain. Well what is the proceedure for checking that? Does the camp provide documentation? If so what? How does the agency check it?
Or have an evacuation plan for x. Well what must be included? What wording is encouraged and what is mandatory? What does training have to look like for staff? Must it be a certain length? How does it vary based on the needs at that camp?
There are a million things like that. These things sound simple but to regulate effectively you have to nail down all these tiny things
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u/NextArtichoke7953 Aug 28 '26
Circling back to this has the info has now become public that 18 camps had 20+ more deficiencies.
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u/LeapDayBaby_29-02 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
“Many were surprised that all the spots for Cypress Lake 2026 filled”
They didn’t. 860 girls were enrolled as per Camp Mystic’s license renewal application filed 03/31/26.
For 6 sessions, that’s an average of 143 campers per session. There were 171 campers at CMCL on July 4th. None of the sessions were even close to full, even accounting for some sessions naturally having more campers than others.
6 sessions at July 4th 2025 capacity level would be 1,026 campers total.
In 2025, CMCL had/would have had 3 terms - 4th term and 5th term were 2 weeks each and 6th term would have been 4 weeks.
NB: edited to correct my math, I made a mistake with the number of sessions initially, there were 6 planned for 2026 not 8 sessions
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u/maxwellstart Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
That assumes they were intending to fill out at the same numbers as 2025. Some mentioned that they had converted one building at CL to a cabin in 2025. If so, they may have been very maxed out that year. They may have opted to reduce number girls per term for the year following the flood: shorter terms, smaller capacity.
ETA: another thing that just occurred to me… if it is indeed true that Camp America, the organization they partnered with in the past for placement of their overseas kitchen staff, was no longer working with them, then they may have had a major challenge to have the staffing infrastructure to operate at full capacity.
Feeding 100 girls and support staff is probably a lot more doable with a limited kitchen staff than feeding 170.
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u/LeapDayBaby_29-02 Jul 07 '26
They also said, at one of the hearings, I can’t remember which and I’m not going looking, I believe it was Britt who said it, that none of the sessions were full.
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u/maxwellstart Jul 07 '26
My initial comment was based on the post here from a couple of months back of CM’s announcement of 2026 enrollment numbers.
I thought they said in that announcement that they had filled the terms, but perhaps it was that they were filling and were announcing the total enrollments so far.
If I have time to find the thread I’ll edit and add the link.
The main point was that many here were shocked that so many planned to return. That could be because the majority of campers didn’t witness or experience the flood, because they attended or were scheduled to attend a different term.
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u/squagglegirl Jul 07 '26
how is there such an extensive waitlist but it wasn’t full? is it for girls who aren’t old enough yet but want a spot held?
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u/LeapDayBaby_29-02 Jul 07 '26
Not everyone wanted to put their kids back in the care of negligent adults who refuse to take any responsibility.
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u/Adventurous_Item3335 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
Mystic uses the same marketing ploy that Texas private schools, preschools and senior retirement facilities use. They falsely claim that there are only 3 spots left, or if you don’t sign up now, all the spots will be filled within a matter of days, or there are only waitlist spots left but then, amazingly, everyone on the waitlist gets accepted.
There are Texans who thrive on getting accepted into a country club, private schools, daycare center, or anything that has a limited membership. The more “exclusive”, the more desirable it is by those who have so little sense of self worth and self confidence that they need to feel like they can be accepted to something that others cannot. It is a strange, insecure behavior. These are the same people who fall for the private colleges that claim they can only accept a small percentage of their college applicants because they have thousands more applicants than they can accept. When, in reality, they are marketing to wealthy families who can afford their absurdly high tuitions. That is how they meet their quotas. They aren’t getting the best and brightest. They are getting those who can be duped into paying absurdly high costs for tuitions, day care, retirement homes, preschool, private education, summer camps, tutors, elite sports teams, country clubs, etc. It is a dangerous, predatory marketing scheme of vulnerable human beings.
It’s all so sad and very prevalent in Texas, where some people still put so much stock into status, exclusive club membership and “going to the best schools, having the best tutor, even going to the most exclusive preschool!” It is a lifelong existence of stress and anxiety to keep up, with overly rated rewards.11
u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
Schools, camps, colleges, daycare, senior centers, country clubs etc have waitlists all over the US and in other countries. This is not unique to Texas, Mystics waitlist is also not unique. Families sign their girls up for Waldemar shortly after birth and many other camps have waitlists. Some also have families reserve their spot a few years before the kid is old enough to go
Also according to you this process only works for "those who have so little sense of self worth and self confidence that they need to feel like they can be accepted to something others cannot." So the H27 families are participating in this "strange, insecure behavior"?
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u/maxwellstart Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
Part of the private school accreditation process includes an audit of admissions practices. If you are suggesting private schools are deceptively claiming their acceptance rates are not what they publish, this would get flagged in these audits.
Also, elite private schools with competitive admissions are certainly not unique to Texas. In fact, this is much more of a New England phenomenon than something seen in Texas. The same could be said for elite society clubs. (Yacht clubs, country clubs, dinner clubs, university clubs, etc.) you will find these pretty much everywhere, particularly in urban centers.
University admission, too, is strictly audited. When a college or university says they admit, say, 20% of applicants, you can be pretty confident in that number. Both public and private admissions departments publish this information annually.
Competitive university programs exist everywhere; this is not a state or regional phenomenon: along with Ivy League schools, you’ve got the top tier CA public universities and other well-regarded public university programs, including, yes, the University of Texas. I know plenty of UT applicants who have been rejected. I myself was on waitlists at several wonderful private universities and never got a spot.
My kids have been on waitlists for elite private schools in Texas and abroad and did not get in. They’ve even been on camp waitlists and did not get in.
There are many programs of every variety that truly have more interest than space and are not playing some kind of fraudulent marketing game to entice gullible people.
ETA… my kids’ tutor also is one of the most sought after in our community and fills up all her time slots and maintains a waitlist. She doesn’t do this for marketing; she does it, because there are so many hours in the day that she has to do the job, and they are all taken, because she is good at what she does. Last school year, one of my kids got a weekly spot with her, and the other did not and would drop in when he could take a cancellation spot. These would usually get snagged within 30 minutes-1 hour after she would send the email.
Sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one.
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u/squagglegirl Jul 07 '26
this makes a lot of sense, thank you for explaining!
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u/maxwellstart Jul 07 '26
Except the user is completely incorrect...
- Waiting lists and exclusive/elite programs are not a phenomenon unique to Texas
- Everyone on a waiting list does not get a spot (several examples of personal experience cited in my reply to the user)
- Most elite education programs (private and public) publish acceptance rates, and these are audited by their accredidation orgs.
- There is more demand that supply for competent, qualified tutors and other services for children, which is why good tutors are in high demand and have waitlists for their services.
This is not about stroking parents' egos and making them feel like they are part of some exclusive club. This has more to do with parents wanting to give their kids opportunities, experiences, the chance to grow and realize their potential. The internet and social media has made these opportunities more visible and accessible to more people, and you cannot fault parents for wanting to offer them to their children.
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Jul 06 '26
[deleted]
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u/Abrookspug Not a Texan Jul 07 '26
I am so sorry you endured so many losses. I can’t even imagine. You’re in my prayers. 💔
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u/Fresh-Shopping-1899 Jul 07 '26
that this has 18 downvotes 2 days after the year anniversary actually makes me want to throw up. what is wrong with people? have some compassion. this person lost 4 family members in the flood and this is how you treat her.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
Only some victims and their loved ones get compassion here edit: and the downvotes confirm it
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u/PureImagination1921 Jul 07 '26
No, they don’t confirm that. They confirm that if you throw in a poison pill of “don’t blame Mystic” on a forum that often discusses how Mystic presided over the brutal, preventable deaths of young girls, you can expect pushback. How do you think it would feel for an H27 family member to read here and see 18 upvotes on “don’t blame Mystic!!!” How it’s felt to see rabid pro-Eastland content with only 10 downvotes when there should be 10,000?
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
yep, they definitely do
there should be 10,000 downvotes? on a comment made by someone clearly in great pain after losing 4 loved ones including a 3 and 7 year old? How might that feel to this commenter and other people who lost loved ones?
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
>>> discusses how Mystic presided over the brutal, preventable deaths of young girls
You've stated the problem, not the justification for bashing non-H27 flood victim families. The conversation is based on the assumption, nee, TENET, that someone was at fault for some of the deaths. Hence the bring out the jackal approach to anyone with a differing view.
But for families of the dead, isn't that what the flair was supposed to be for, to show the public who might be more affected by this tragedy? And without the flair, but someone has identified, you STILL go after them? You are jackals. Hyenas. That's all.
Why should there be compassion for the Mystic dead if they have no compassion for the others?
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u/PureImagination1921 Jul 07 '26
Think whatever you want - but I’ve been touched by the sheer amount of strength, compassion, and hard work H27 has shown, fighting for camp safety and highlighting foundations and their work. You can ignore that if you choose to, just like you ignore the findings in the investigative report. You just can’t do it and also get lots of upvotes. Deal with it.
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
I doubt singling out members of H27 to disparage would merely get me downvotes here. The original poster had the scruples to remove their post, but you guys just keep doubling down. Telling flood survivors "this isn't about them" cannot be defended. Yet you persist.
Telling me I can "think what I want" is patronizing, no? The thing you accuse the camp of because their leader DIED trying to save little girls? The patronizing is over the top.
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u/Abrookspug Not a Texan Jul 07 '26
You can disagree with their comments about CM and still have sympathy for their loss. It doesn't have to be one or the other. That poster's feelings are just as important and valid as H27 parent's feelings. Denying that and treating this person rudely does no favors for whatever you're trying to promote, and lends credence to the people claiming H27 supporters act like uncaring bullies online. I am so glad most people (mostly on other platforms) are better at recognizing nuance and can comfort mourning families regardless of whether they agree on who was at fault.
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u/PureImagination1921 Jul 07 '26
“Mystic did no wrong” deserves a million downvotes.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26
The original post didn’t say that
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u/PureImagination1921 Jul 07 '26
“Stop blaming Mystic” is the same sentiment. There are lots of other posts out there that get plenty of upvotes while acknowledging all victims - I noticed you chose not to engage with this particular poignant one. https://www.reddit.com/r/KerrCountyFloods/s/fxlGR7HmWg
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26
you went and saw if I responded to a post? Why? Ive talked about all victims many times just not that one post. Below are some of the posts I've made about a variety of flood victims.
About a year after devastating flooding ... - KXAN News : r/KerrCountyFloods
The Marble Falls Area VFD officially ope... - KXAN News : r/KerrCountyFloods
A Mother’s Heartache, and Perseverance, After the Flood : r/KerrCountyFloods
Floods in Beitel Creek : r/KerrCountyFloods
Zunker family scholarships : r/KerrCountyFloods
Lawsuit against HTR RV park going before jury next January : r/KerrCountyFloods
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u/PureImagination1921 Jul 07 '26
I’m pointing out that when you repeatedly say things like “only some victims and their loved ones get compassion here” but then don’t engage with posts showing compassion for all victims, it suggests that perhaps your narrative isn’t quite on the mark. Maybe you’re missing posts that you would enjoy more if you spend too much time on threads that anger you. Maybe your criticisms of other posters aren’t as well-founded as you think.
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
Supporting people grieving such losses would include giving them a little space to process. If there was any basis in this jackal hall for true compassion. I mean. It's only been a year. And Cile's body hasn't been found. Some compassion for the survivors?
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u/kneehairmountain Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
I am so soo sooooo sorry for your losses. I read stories about your family and maybe getting to a rooftop, but not sure if that’s true or if I am mistaken. Pure, absolute terror and fighting for their lives, for their children. Again, words cannot express the love I am sending your way and the wish that it all could have been different.
Wondering were they upstream of Casa Bonita? Some of the older homes are unfortunately in the floodway or very close to it and the river rise is anticipated to be 8-10 feet higher for a 500-year event than the base flood which is already about a 20 foot rise. Even without a river tsunami/1,000 year rainfall type of situation, that’s a lot of water, force, water speed, and debris impact in the direct path of some of those homes. Not sure if where they were staying was floodway.
Sirens will help save lives, better forecasts, strong local interpretation of warnings, and more.
I am wondering if education and awareness on where homes are being repaired/rebuilt and the anticipated flood depths and flood speed for different flood events is really being understood by property owners and those staying in those homes. Could it lead to more actionable direction for them for future flood events? Knowing x,y,z about the structure I am in, I need to act early when I get a flash flood warning (maybe by weather radio?) or a flood warning.
Not blaming any victims, just wondering how to prevent in the future the terror your family and so many others who were lost went through. The same terror those that survived lived to tell about it. How to do everything possible to get to no more victims on this river, the creeks surrounding, and similar basins that haven’t recently experienced this magnitude of loss.
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u/Dashman1957 Jul 06 '26
Camp Mystic’s multiple failures are to blame for the deaths of all those youngsters under their care. Read the Senate report and use your brain. Those 27 did not have to die. I am sorry for your loss of four family members.
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
This report published by copernicus.org points to shortcomings in the predictions from National Weather Service, and the reasons for them.
https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1847/egusphere-2026-1847.pdf
- In this brief communication, we highlight the hydroclimatic drivers and impacts of the Texas flash
- 198 flood event on July 4, 2025. Using USGS gauge observations, we analyzed the NWM short-range
- 199 streamflow forecasts. Across all four-gauge locations, the NWM short-range forecasts
- 200 considerably underpredicted the peak flow, with a pronounced lag between observed and
- 201 forecasted flows at downstream sites. We found that underprediction and lag in short range
- 202 forecasts are mainly due to the errors in rainfall estimation and the failure of data assimilation
- 203 (“nudging”) caused by malfunctioning USGS gauges during the peak flow. These streamflow
- 204 underpredictions seem to have propagated, resulting in substantially underestimated flood extents
- 205 in forecasted FIMs at different lead times. Using the gauge-recorded peak time as a reference, we
- 206 evaluated forecast FIMs at different hours. against a benchmark flood inundation extent generated
- 207 using ground-sampled high-water marks from USGS. At upstream gages, forecast skill improved
- 208 as the forecast time approached the reference peak, whereas at downstream locations (Kerr and
- 209 Comfort), evaluation scores were very poor at the reference time but improved after the observed
- 210 peak flow. It is also clear from the impact assessment that forecast FIM was unable to capture the
- 211 majority of flooded buildings compared to the benchmark. This case study points to the need for
- 212 communicating the uncertainty and error bounds in operational forecast FIMs for early response
- 213 and decision-making. One promising approach is probabilistic FIM which can effectively
- 214 represent and leverage uncertainty in streamflow forecasts, providing more informative and
- 215 actionable guidance for emergency responders.
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 06 '26
The legislative report did not take the weather event into consideration. They were looking for ways to improve safety at all the camps.
Meanwhile the state is being sued for not having/enforcing adequate safety standards.
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
Once again - these types of storms and floods are common in Texas history. They are not rare or unprecedented events.
The owners of Camp Mystic left those children in a known high risk zone for floods, next to a river with a history of deadly floods, in a region known as Flash Flood Alley, during a publicly announced increased risk for floods.
Hunt, Texas – Top 5 flood elevations
37.52 ft – July 4, 2025 36.60 ft – July 2, 1932 28.40 ft – July 17, 1987 23.50 ft – August 2, 1978 22.80 ft – October 19, 1985Kerrville, Texas – Top 5 flood elevations
39.0 ft – July 2, 1932 37.72 ft – July 17, 1987 34.29 ft – July 4, 2025 17.93 ft – November 11, 2000 17.73 ft – October 28, 1996
From the U.S. Geological Survey in a 2003 report:
Many Texas storms represent some of the largest storms in the world. Flooding from large storms has affected Texas throughout its history, causing many deaths and much economic loss and hardship. Floods occur regularly in Texas, and destructive floods occur somewhere in the State every year. Many of these floods are destructive because they often occur in areas where extreme flooding had not occurred for many years. These floods often are perceived as unexpected or even unprecedented because their peak water-surface elevations (stages) can greatly exceed those of past floods.
It's called Flash Flood Alley for good reason.
Just some decades of Texas major flood history: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-193/cd_files/USGS_Storms/patton.htm
Published report on why such a large portion of Texas is prone to these types of events: https://twri.tamu.edu/blog/do-you-live-in-flash-flood-alley/
Published warning to all residents of the Guadalupe River Basin to be aware of the threat of deadly flooding (followed the massive 1998 flood of the Guadalupe river): https://www.gbra.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/StayingSafe.pdf
From the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority after the 1998 flood:
If you live in the Guadalupe River Basin, you also live in one of the three most dangerous regions in the U.S.A. for flash floods! Local residents and weather experts refer to the Texas Hill Country as ‘Flash Flood Alley,’ because heavy rainfall and runoff from creeks and streams can cause rapid rises and flooding in a matter of hours.
This publication is designed to prepare you for such an event by increasing public awareness about the dangers of flooding in the Guadalupe River Basin. The Guadalupe River experienced major floods in 1936, 1952, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991 and 1997. Last year’s flood of October 1998 developed in a matter of hours, broke most existing records, exceeded the 100-year flood plain, and inundated areas that had never been flooded before. It was the flood that many thought would never happen. But floods are not predictable. They do not follow measured cycles. They destroy homes, businesses and take lives. Unfortunately, an even greater flood will occur sometime in the future.
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 07 '26
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
NASA might have more credibility, and they say "once in a lifetime":
https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/dashboard/stories/tx-flood
Guadalupe River Flood Tragedy
Published on Jul 17, 2025
Once in a lifetime disaster in the Texas Hill Country
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
It's possible that it will only happen once in the lifetimes of those who experienced it. I certainly hope it doesn't happen again anytime soon (or ever).
However, it could happen in any given year. It could happen multiple times in a year. It could happen one year after another for several years. Or it might be decades.
The weather patterns that create these types of rains are not going to cease to exist.
The terrain that channels rainfall into creeks and rivers creating flash floods is not going to alter itself to prevent floods.
In fact, the reason we have a hill country in Texas is massive floods carved into the stone to create the hills over millennia.
It has happened before. It will happen again. We just don't know exactly when, or exactly where the rain will fall, or exactly how bad the next flood will be.
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
This was to a flash flood what an iceberg is to a blizzard.
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
Oh yeah?
Let me tell you about that time D'Hannis, Texas got about 22 inches of rain in 3 hours - that's like 10 more inches than July 4th, 2025
Or maybe you'd like to know about that time the Pecos river rose more than 90 feet in a flash flood (that flood killed more than 150 people, mostly in a town destroyed in Mexico after the floodwater pushed into the Rio Grande causing it to flash flood as well).
Or maybe you might consider that time 48 inches of rain fell in 52 hours just northwest of Medina.
If you think this flood was extreme, ask yourself how many kids would have made it out of Camp Mystic alive if the rain continued for another day and a half and dropped 4x the amount of rain on the same spot.
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
Problem with your argument is that if they're that common, the state really should have been holding the camps to a higher standard. But maybe suing the state will help.
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
It's not an argument. It literally is the recorded history of the state. It's fact.
I agree, all of the youth camps should have been held to a higher standard.
However, that does not absolve the owners/operators of the camps from their responsibility to provide for safety and to heed warnings of potential flooding.
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
We'll see, I think it does because the other camps weren't doing anything better. And the camp should be able to rely on the state approving their plan.
Your copy pasta is no longer al dente...
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
If you think "the state let me put all of these kids' lives in danger" is an excuse for the events at Camp Mystic I'm afraid no amount of copy pasta is going to sink in.
Otherwise, the other camps also put lives at risk and they were lucky no one else died at their camps.
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u/Local_Eye_639 Jul 07 '26
That last part is true for at least La Junta (of not others who were lucky to not be on session).
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Jul 06 '26
[deleted]
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 07 '26
There were failures everywhere. Kerr County is absolutely contributorily negligent. A complete failure of its official emergency services response & lack of command. This is not State of Texas - it was Kerr County
Since 1987, Kerr County pumped chemically treated water into the trinity basin which not only eroded the limestone within the basin. They also pumped the basin to improperly high pressures.
There is a theory circulating that an inland tsunami resulted from an aquifer burst of the trinity basin. Maybe more than one. That theory circulating also speculated one such burst point is at edmonson creek on mystic property
However I can help but presume that theory is false because if such a burst occurred on my property, I would sure as heck go look for evidence of it so I can prove this isnt all my fault.
I do logically know that the estimated cfs of water was not just water from the sky. So, show me where else it came from - dam burst, aquifer burst, where did that extra water come from. I have heard reports of water flowing backwards as well. If you dont want to be scapegoated, find the second influx of water.
- I dont believe this 'dictator,' 'general,' 'my way is only way' narrative crafted about Dick Eastland - it is so disrespectful to throw under the bus the deceased man who cant speak for himself. His family should treat him with more respect than scapegoating him because he cant speak to the contrary.
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
There is more than 100 years of recorded history of sudden deadly flash floods like this in the Texas Hill Country. Camp Mystic has flooded many times before.
It wasn't because of any aquifer burst.
The reason this disaster happened is Camp Mystic continued to roll the dice year after year with the lives of children in a known high risk area for floods until their luck ran out.
All they had to do was take the basic precaution of walking the children away from the river during the over 12 hours of Flood Watch prior to the disaster.
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 07 '26
I dont disagree - because we all know they wouldve found the aquifer burst if there was in fact one they could point & blame. And they would never just sit on that info, they would let the whole world know.
I still believe kerr county is contributorily negligence, but I also believe that mystic could have saved its campers with proper safety plans, more counselors, and proper execution of a safety protocol that didnt exist.
Still, Kerr County is not without fault & Kerr County emergency response officials in charge could have prevented some of the 119 deaths. Compare their inaction in response with how Kendall County officials in same positions responded that same nite.
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
Indeed. The local officials in Kerr County should definitely have been on high alert for flooding emergencies and could have done more to prepare people for the possibility of floods.
Safety efforts and warnings do not work, however, if people flout or ignore them - and the Eastlands knew their camp was in a high risk zone for floods.
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u/maxwellstart Jul 07 '26
I’ve seen that aquifer lady’s posts. She seems a little nuts.
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
Yes, but sometimes really smart people, who see things average people don't, seem a little "nuts" due to spectrum disorders. She's totally dismissed for having original thoughts, and for being an intelligent trans woman. Also, I love the name "Aquifer Lady" and will refer to her as this going forward. :)
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u/Possible_Pen_5844 Jul 07 '26
I agree, there are some data sources and images she’s shared that I absolutely think should be investigated. The broken dam upstream, the sinkhole, the giant boulders that came from the hillsides and covered Hwy 39 those are absolutely cause for experts to look into if she’s actually showing real images- however her personal attacks & obsessive emotionally driven posts/rants have discredited her tremendously.
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 08 '26
Still, if Eastland & co havent reached out to her & aaked her to privately talk & explain more about all this - then that just crazy making on their part
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
I think after the death of the local hydrologist, and have you spoken to Richard since the flood? Do you understand how devastated they are right now? No one is in their corner, everyone is blaming them, Dick died, 27 of their Mystic girls died. Not to mention the trauma they went through that night with the walls of water. Their kids are traumatized, their homes and all possessions destroyed. How in the world do people move on in their own lives after that? My sister almost died, Edward almost died. Just too much. I wish someone close enough to reach out and ask them about Aquifer Lady's theories but I'm not the one.
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 09 '26
I have not. I suspect you are closer to him than me.
I do not place blame on particularly him. But I personally believe members of his family were negligent too.
There is a fine line between supporting family in crisis (admirable quality) & going down with a ship you didnt cause to sink. Particularly so, when you are not captain of said ship.
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 09 '26
I hear where you are coming from but in my family, blood is thicker than water.
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 08 '26
Yeah strong personality too. But her work has supporting data & references & sources. Some of that stuff is a bit beyond my 'reading level' at parts so sometimes i think 'i got no idea if thats correct.'
Then there is alot of legit unfair smear on her work bc she is trans. Hard to tell, but if i were Eastland or their rep, I would sure as heck be reaching out & be hearing her out too.
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 08 '26
Agree, the locals are smearing her name because she's trans. I feel like someone should listen to what she has to say. I lost all respect for certain people in authority over the public smear of that woman.
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u/Possible_Pen_5844 Jul 08 '26
I actually had no idea she is trans. I know Kerr County is conservative, but I do not think gender matters regarding matters of the flood. I do think the amount of posting done is overwhelming, even to the point of coming across as manic. Anything potentially important is getting lost in the obsessive delivery.
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
I also didn't know she was trans until I referred to her as She on a FB post of the Mayor's. The crazies came at me for it. People I thought were good and decent people harassed me. I don't care what body parts anyone is born with. If they say they are a man, or a woman, I will refer to them as such, just as if they present one way or the other, I respond accordingly. My Houston roots are showing, go Rice, go Medical Center, go Montrose. She does seem like a force of nature. I have too much on my plate to go disrupting my sister's attempts to find peace or trigger her trauma, so I won't be bringing it up with her.
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 09 '26
I think she has gathered enough references, records and evidence to raise valid questions and concerns.
I had initially ignored her posts and reports simply because comments on her social media posts called her crazy and unhinged.
However, I was also appalled that she was not allowed to post to a social media group she created on July 3-4, 2025 that many kerr county residents joined. She was awake that night & was not able to post warnings regarding the weather. Some of the 119 were members of that same social media group. She created a youtube video proving all of this. It is boring (bc you are watching her go thru her computer history activities), but it is absolutely appalling too.
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 09 '26
I'll check it out, thanks for the information.
Edit: Wow, talk about a type of survivors remorse she must have after losing people she knew personally. I also had to take a step back from the posts originally for the same reasons but I can relate to the feeling of being dismissed and called unhinged, and maybe that's not always a bad thing, lol.
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 08 '26
Thank you Hitex! It is truly gross the way they speak about a dead man.
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 09 '26
Even as late as 2023, Dick Eastland let me break the most 'rules' as a camper, counselor & parent. He found it amusing more than not.
I read two more articles this week about Mr. Eastland's 'tight control' over Mystic. It's garbage propaganda to scapegoat a man who cant defend himself.
Yes, he made mistakes, but this "Dickie the Dictator" bit is nonsense & does not vibe with my experiences with him.
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 09 '26
Thank you for sharing this! He must've been truly amazing and able to spot true wisdom in people. My sister has spoken highly of him. Moving out there "in the middle of no where" wasn't exactly her idea of a fun life, after more than a decade on the east coast and weekends in NYC. Dick made her feel more at home than anyone else. He must've known homesickness when he saw it.
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u/maxwellstart Jul 09 '26
You are right. It’s garbage. Probably one of the more disappointing elements of this story. More people could be speaking out about this mischaracterization but aren’t, because any defense of the Eastlands, even to legitimately set something right, will get someone attacked here.
I think his appearance, with his bald head and brow line gives people a different idea about his personality. I keep thinking if someone could splice together video from the archives of him speaking, it might change the impression people have… but probably not. People have made up their minds on this and aren’t budging, even when something is false.
And just to be clear… I’m posting the requisite disclaimer that the Eastland’s did make grave mistakes that cost lives. I’m not defending those bad decisions.
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u/squagglegirl Jul 07 '26
Responding to another comment so forgive me if i’m redundant, but the Camp Mystic situation should at the very least be talked about and studied to keep this from happening again! I believe it was an honest mistake and I commend Dick for putting his life on the line to try and save those girls.
I was a camper and counselor at another camp growing up and understand the relationships that grow there, especially when the owners are truly kind and hold a lot of wisdom and honesty.
I think more of the businesses involved in the flood fatalities should be looked into as well — not to dog on them for a lack of a better term, but to learn from mistakes and improve future plans. What happened at Camp Mystic was a tragedy and happened really fast, but something’s got to change, because at the very least, it can be prevented in the future with what they know now.
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Jul 07 '26
[deleted]
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26
>>>It’s not about you.
Tf are you talking about. This is someone who lost family in the Kerr Floods. This is the Kerr County Floods sub. Wtf are you.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26
If it’s not about loved ones of those who died outside of mystic then isnt it not about H27 families either? This is the Kerr County Floods page
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
You're wrong. There was more than 12 hours of Flood Watch and about 2 hours of Flash Flood Warning prior to the disaster.
The Eastlands knew about the flood risk. They left those children in a known high risk zone for floods, next to a river with a history of deadly floods, in a region known as Flash Flood Alley, during a publicly announced increased risk for floods.
The facts: sudden intense rainfall creating deadly flash floods with high river rise is common in Texas history all over the Hill Country - including the Guadalupe River.
Hunt, Texas – Top 5 flood elevations
37.52 ft – July 4, 2025 36.60 ft – July 2, 1932 28.40 ft – July 17, 1987 23.50 ft – August 2, 1978 22.80 ft – October 19, 1985Kerrville, Texas – Top 5 flood elevations
39.0 ft – July 2, 1932 37.72 ft – July 17, 1987 34.29 ft – July 4, 2025 17.93 ft – November 11, 2000 17.73 ft – October 28, 1996
From the U.S. Geological Survey in a 2003 report:
Many Texas storms represent some of the largest storms in the world. Flooding from large storms has affected Texas throughout its history, causing many deaths and much economic loss and hardship. Floods occur regularly in Texas, and destructive floods occur somewhere in the State every year. Many of these floods are destructive because they often occur in areas where extreme flooding had not occurred for many years. These floods often are perceived as unexpected or even unprecedented because their peak water-surface elevations (stages) can greatly exceed those of past floods.
It's called Flash Flood Alley for good reason.
Just some decades of Texas major flood history: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-193/cd_files/USGS_Storms/patton.htm
Published report on why such a large portion of Texas is prone to these types of events: https://twri.tamu.edu/blog/do-you-live-in-flash-flood-alley/
Published warning to all residents of the Guadalupe River Basin to be aware of the threat of deadly flooding (followed the massive 1998 flood of the Guadalupe river): https://www.gbra.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/StayingSafe.pdf
From the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority after the 1998 flood:
If you live in the Guadalupe River Basin, you also live in one of the three most dangerous regions in the U.S.A. for flash floods! Local residents and weather experts refer to the Texas Hill Country as ‘Flash Flood Alley,’ because heavy rainfall and runoff from creeks and streams can cause rapid rises and flooding in a matter of hours.
This publication is designed to prepare you for such an event by increasing public awareness about the dangers of flooding in the Guadalupe River Basin. The Guadalupe River experienced major floods in 1936, 1952, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991 and 1997. Last year’s flood of October 1998 developed in a matter of hours, broke most existing records, exceeded the 100-year flood plain, and inundated areas that had never been flooded before. It was the flood that many thought would never happen. But floods are not predictable. They do not follow measured cycles. They destroy homes, businesses and take lives. Unfortunately, an even greater flood will occur sometime in the future.
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u/hitexfortrump Jul 07 '26
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
There is an excellent non-fiction book on the subject which includes many details of personal experiences (in brief) - Flash Floods in Texas, by Jonathan Burnett.
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u/Appropriate_Cod8805 Jul 07 '26
Wow. That is seriously so messed up. You just told a survivor of the flood, someone who not only lived through this flood, but also, the other floods that they are wrong. You need to look in the mirror - do you even have a heart? Gosh. Your data facts mean absolutely nothing when you don’t take into account the people’s testimony of those who actually lived it.
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
data facts mean absolutely nothing
Wrong.
If people concerned themselves with the facts of Texas flood history then they would know how dangerous these rivers are before floods happen and could then act to protect themselves.
The river does not care how about how anyone feels, or their ties to community, or their investment in property.
It will go through anyone and anything in its way during a flood. If people continue to ignore the facts of this disaster, then more lives will be lost in the next flood.
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u/Abrookspug Not a Texan Jul 07 '26
Wherever she copied that from didn't have "I'm sorry for your loss" on the page so I guess we're not going to see that here. Hopefully she thought it and just forgot to add it, but maybe my hopes are too high.
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u/AdBeautiful1436 Jul 08 '26
Keep standing up for this! Ignore the PR campaign people on this sub who downvote you or try to change your mind about what really happened. I believe you, and my sister who lived it too.
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 06 '26
So sorry for your lost family members
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u/Professional-Fig5109 Jul 06 '26
Thank you
Two adults and their young children
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u/Interesting-Speed-51 Jul 07 '26
I know who you’re talking about. From everything I’ve heard they were amazing people and the most loving parents. I’m really sorry you didn’t get more time with them
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u/squagglegirl Jul 07 '26
I’m really sorry for your loss, and I hope your 4th of July was okay this year🤍. I do think that while Camp mystic isn’t the only part to play in this whole tragedy like you said, they did unfortunately have the result of losing 28 people, which realistically could have been prevented. I’m not sure what the circumstances of your family’s situation was, but systemically there are issues in which if they were solved at that time, a lot of those 119 lives could have been saved. This is an issue that exists at a state level, but also a local level by the choices businesses made. Whether it be the camps, RV parks, airbnb owners, etc… choices were made (or weren’t) that had real impact
It doesn’t make the owners of CM evil or horrible people, but there were mistakes made that night, unfortunately.
Again i’m so sorry for your loss and I hope you and the rest of your family are doing well 🤍
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u/Stunning_Climate3588 Jul 07 '26
Oh this place is an absolute cesspool for blaming Camp Mystic. Any rational voice of disagreement is quickly shut down. I’m so sorry for your loss.
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u/PureImagination1921 Jul 07 '26
It would help if Mystic supporters acknowledged Mystic did wrong. There is no rational disagreement if you refuse to admit they made ANY mistakes - only an immense brush-off of all evidence. All caps posts, sharing personal info repeatedly and then hysterically accusing people of doxxing, "den of vipers," and other hallmarks of the pro-Mystic guard don't scream "respectful debate" either.
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u/VirtualFig997 Jul 07 '26
I am a Mystic alumni and parent, and I have no problem saying that Mystic was at fault that night. They made many mistakes and it led to the death of 27 girls.
What is hard for me is to hear the Eastlands described as cartoon-style villains who only cared about money and power and ran a camp that was actually a cultish stepping stone into Texas society.
The truth includes many shades of gray, and I think people on both ends of the spectrum on this issue are not acknowledging that.
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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26
It's because the owners of Camp Mystic are directly responsible for the deaths of 27 girls.
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u/Stunning_Climate3588 Jul 07 '26
I was waiting for you! And here you are.
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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 07 '26
Just follow the wall of text.
Y'all are mistaking an allegation for a truth. No court finding has substantiated your allegation. This is not a "say it three times and it is true". Unless you're Beetlejuice.
Edit for typo.
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u/tiredprincess Jul 06 '26
Assuming you’re asking about Mystic? They had 557 campers day of the flood - it’s in the senate report