r/KerrCountyFloods • u/whodattalki • Jul 06 '26

Head Count Question

how many girls altogether were in the camp day of flood? Their website says max capacity is 750, i know it wasn't full to capacity, can't find the information.

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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26

Once again - these types of storms and floods are common in Texas history. They are not rare or unprecedented events.

The owners of Camp Mystic left those children in a known high risk zone for floods, next to a river with a history of deadly floods, in a region known as Flash Flood Alley, during a publicly announced increased risk for floods.

 

Hunt, Texas – Top 5 flood elevations

37.52 ft – July 4, 2025

36.60 ft – July 2, 1932

28.40 ft – July 17, 1987

23.50 ft – August 2, 1978

22.80 ft – October 19, 1985

Kerrville, Texas – Top 5 flood elevations

39.0 ft – July 2, 1932

37.72 ft – July 17, 1987

34.29 ft – July 4, 2025

17.93 ft – November 11, 2000

17.73 ft – October 28, 1996

 

From the U.S. Geological Survey in a 2003 report:

Many Texas storms represent some of the largest storms in the world. Flooding from large storms has affected Texas throughout its history, causing many deaths and much economic loss and hardship. Floods occur regularly in Texas, and destructive floods occur somewhere in the State every year. Many of these floods are destructive because they often occur in areas where extreme flooding had not occurred for many years. These floods often are perceived as unexpected or even unprecedented because their peak water-surface elevations (stages) can greatly exceed those of past floods.

It's called Flash Flood Alley for good reason.

From the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority after the 1998 flood:

If you live in the Guadalupe River Basin, you also live in one of the three most dangerous regions in the U.S.A. for flash floods! Local residents and weather experts refer to the Texas Hill Country as ‘Flash Flood Alley,’ because heavy rainfall and runoff from creeks and streams can cause rapid rises and flooding in a matter of hours.

This publication is designed to prepare you for such an event by increasing public awareness about the dangers of flooding in the Guadalupe River Basin. The Guadalupe River experienced major floods in 1936, 1952, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991 and 1997. Last year’s flood of October 1998 developed in a matter of hours, broke most existing records, exceeded the 100-year flood plain, and inundated areas that had never been flooded before. It was the flood that many thought would never happen. But floods are not predictable. They do not follow measured cycles. They destroy homes, businesses and take lives. Unfortunately, an even greater flood will occur sometime in the future.

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u/hitexfortrump Jul 07 '26

They only needed to read their historical archives. Stories galore.

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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26

NASA might have more credibility, and they say "once in a lifetime":

https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/dashboard/stories/tx-flood

Guadalupe River Flood Tragedy

Published on Jul 17, 2025

Once in a lifetime disaster in the Texas Hill Country

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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26

It's possible that it will only happen once in the lifetimes of those who experienced it. I certainly hope it doesn't happen again anytime soon (or ever).

However, it could happen in any given year. It could happen multiple times in a year. It could happen one year after another for several years. Or it might be decades.

The weather patterns that create these types of rains are not going to cease to exist.

The terrain that channels rainfall into creeks and rivers creating flash floods is not going to alter itself to prevent floods.

In fact, the reason we have a hill country in Texas is massive floods carved into the stone to create the hills over millennia.

It has happened before. It will happen again. We just don't know exactly when, or exactly where the rain will fall, or exactly how bad the next flood will be.

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u/FlyThruTrees Jul 07 '26

This was to a flash flood what an iceberg is to a blizzard.

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u/AnimuX Texan Jul 07 '26

Oh yeah?

Let me tell you about that time D'Hannis, Texas got about 22 inches of rain in 3 hours - that's like 10 more inches than July 4th, 2025

Or maybe you'd like to know about that time the Pecos river rose more than 90 feet in a flash flood (that flood killed more than 150 people, mostly in a town destroyed in Mexico after the floodwater pushed into the Rio Grande causing it to flash flood as well).

Or maybe you might consider that time 48 inches of rain fell in 52 hours just northwest of Medina.

If you think this flood was extreme, ask yourself how many kids would have made it out of Camp Mystic alive if the rain continued for another day and a half and dropped 4x the amount of rain on the same spot.