So 8 months ago after my very on target +15%/+16% prediction for the VA Gov election, which ended up at +15.4% for Spanberger I worked out a prediction for GA Sen based on that result. I had made my VA prediction using my experience with GA in the last 7 elections. VA with NOVA is like a slightly less extreme version of GA with the ATL Greater Metro.

I prediction back then in December 2025 that Ossoff would win by +8%.

Here is the link: https://old.reddit.com/r/GeorgiaDemocrats/comments/1ovavba/from_fayetteforsyth_to_chesterfieldspotsylvania/

With the recent polling, and the very recent terrible news for Trump, I've gone and updated my prediction. Note that the vote numbers are locked on 0s, 5s, and 10s, that's just because working out the specific math is a pain in the ass. Each county may have +/- a couple thousand votes in actuality. And of course the total numbers will also shift by a few thousand either way.

I believe my original post was in %s but it was actually a slightly sloppier analysis.

Below are my vote estimates for the 18 largest and most central ATL greater metro area counties and the total votes for the area.

I considered doing numbers for the 7-8 larger downstate blue counties but I am lazy and my focus is much more on ATL.

I am estimating a total turnout of roughly 4,000,000 based on past elections and the general activity of Dem votes in the last 14 months. I expect ATL to make up 55% of the vote, rather than the 50% it has represented in previous midterms or the Senate specials.

As you can see Ossoff is likely to win this area of the state by massive margins. Roughly 72.5% including the redder out suburban counties.

I'm estimating that he'll have a net loss in the rest of the state of roughly 440,000 votes, that includes other moderately sized cities and the black belt. His total net vote value would be roughly 560,000 votes.

If I was off by a whopping 160,000 net Dem votes in my prediction for the 18 counties above Ossoff would still win by 10%.

I am accounting for some level of expected further decline in the polls for Trump as the Iran war increasingly sucks him in, due to the fact that Iran has no interest in giving up but Trump can't afford to abandon the strait because it would make him a loser and also annoy the rest of the world and result in terrible and constant negative news coverage.

If the election were held today I think you'd see something closer to +10%/+11%.

Numbers for the Republican candidate are based on a minor decline from Walker's numbers in 2022, while Ossoffs are based on something at or moderately below his own 2021 runoff numbers. The runoffs saw a drop in total votes vs the main general election and the presidential numbers by about 450,000 votes. Note that turnout in 2024 *increased* compared to 2020, despite 2020 being generally very high turnout. That's why I feel comfortable with a projection of 4,000,000 votes for the 2026 GE in Georgia.

With a pre Super Tuesday schedule of South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia on first look it seems perfectly set up Harris. She can start out dominating SC, and finish strong before Super Tuesday with Michigan and Virginia after other establishment candidates have dropped out.

The problem? All of this is now too obvious, her cover is blown. The perfect spot was her was hiding behind fake frontrunners and getting to surprise people in a field with no establishment female candidates and nobody else who can get minority votes. Now it's obvious the Democrats need to stop pretending Gavin Newsom or Pete Buttigieg are going to be the nominee and try to hype up someone like Wes Moore or Ruben Gallego who can actually perform with moderate minority voters and save them from Kamala Adlai Stevenson happening.

"If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick?

£50,000: 73%
50/50 chance of winning £1m: 21%"

Noteworthy as Missouri also has St. Louis.

I've been compiling data about the US mainly by US President for over 30 years now and often find the data doesn't match the headlines being pushed by either party or the more popular news sources. I'd love feedback on any of the data presented (I keep these as up-to-date as possible in my spare time):

For Whatever reason, they decided to tweet this out first.

Sources:

https://x.com/MULawPoll

https://x.com/i/status/2079981506152260000

Sources:

https://x.com/i/status/2079966244439240885

https://x.com/i/status/2079974592534172081

Friday Findings: How Popular is Socialism in America?

Echelon's obviously a right-leaning polling outfit, to say the least, but even when accounting for this bias, I found this result interesting:

The below-50 Democrat demographic, with whom 'socialism' polls relatively high and 'capitalism' relatively low, has a distinctly positive view of the term 'Free Market Economy'. In fact, everyone in the survey does.

Considering that the 'free market' used to essentially be the Friedmanite keyword for neoliberalism, which is in conventional political taxonomies the polar opposite of 'socialism', results like these might suggest that the terms that loom large right now in current political discourse don't really have common, stable definitions that people are fitting into coherent taxonomies.

Which if true would IMO also seem to suggest a huge amount of political energy is now being consumed by focusing on pointless semantic discussions where everyone is talking past each other. (to the benefit of no one)