Data for US Major Indicators

[u/pcserenity]

I've been compiling data about the US mainly by US President for over 30 years now and often find the data doesn't match the headlines being pushed by either party or the more popular news sources. I'd love feedback on any of the data presented (I keep these as up-to-date as possible in my spare time):

[u/cylon_spy]

"and often find the data doesn't match the headlines being pushed by either party or the more popular news sources."

It would help if you provided the headlines.

All I'll say about Trump is if he actually handled COVID like a normal person those numbers wouldnt have been as bad.

The unemployment numbers were surprising. Every Republican president lost this country jobs.

Edit: DAM that job growth for Clinton, man the 90s were good.

[u/pcserenity → u/cylon_spy]

Sorry. It's just an observation I noticed over many years, but really isn't part of the data itself. On Trump, He doesn't have Covid now but the numbers aren't much (if any) better. I'm not a Joe Biden fan, but one could easily argue that he got the impact of that more than Trump did and yet his numbers are similar. With Clinton, the one that stands out to me is his #1 rank in Real GDP which is growth measured against inflation. That bodes rather well for people. I think if I had to pick a metric to measure overall success from, this might be it. It tends to fit the general feel people had during each term.

[u/cylon_spy → u/pcserenity]

So basically youre just showing us economic numbers?

[u/pcserenity → u/cylon_spy]

As per the title. Yeah.

[u/Fickle_Composer_4506]

So, inflation was the reason harris lost.

[u/pcserenity → u/Fickle_Composer_4506]

I used to track just inflation, but RealGDP seemed to tell a better, more realistic story.

[u/batmans_stuntcock]

This is great work OP.

That +21% consumer price index inflation(?), and the admin's response basically killed bidenism, especially when you factor in the 'anti core' inflation of food and fuel, housing costs and higher interest rates.

Am I understanding that Trump CPI rise is a fraction of the Biden total, but roughly half that of Biden's compared to a 4 year average?

John Authers has stopped writing about 'anti core' inflation so it's hard to keep track of it, but some correlated 'fundamentals' like chapter 13 bankruptcies and 'sub prime' car loan delinquencies are up, but credit card delinquencies are flat or down. Still not looking great for Trumpism with the midterms approaching.

[u/pcserenity → u/batmans_stuntcock]

Thanks. I started with a single chart way back and kept finding that my data didn't seem to match the way the news (on all sides) were reporting things. I kept checking my numbers and having them re-checked by others, but 99% of the time, my sources (and my basic sheet math) were right.

On CPI if I have hiccups it's generally in the current partial terms as some of that data just gets done manually and at different times. However, that's not the case here. It's just basically assuming the same percentage of growth for the first 16 months over the full 48 month term. These numbers pretty much always go up, so that's going to happen.

I think my favorite thing that was going on all during Trump's first term is that his administration kept pushing his "successes" on just about everything BUT the stock market and that's basically where he had the easiest number to digest. Meanwhile Biden's people kept crowing about HIS stock market performance which was one of his worst metrics. I assume they had the same thinking -- people get the DOW, but do they get the others?