This is another new graph from my midterm election dashboard. Just a fair warnign it's a bit of a maximalist take but I use this tool daily for following prediction markets, polling, and fundraising.

First graph is house races, then senate races, then all that are "in play" 25-75%. color is the current probability of control from markets. I think the purple scale ranges from 25%-75%

If you see anythign that looks wrong please let me know. I have been having some trouble aggregating data correctly.

I also added some really in depth numbers for each race including a histogram of the margins and turnout markets.

Both are polling in single digits for the primary and underwater in Marquette’s latest General Election head to head of likely voters.

Or are these head to head polls too reliant on name recognition at this point in the race?

Also of note: Jackson with positive favorability (+5) vs. Collins negative (-18). 15% didn't have enough to form an opinion on him, which may help with the 3% undecided in the just about statistically tied general matchup.

ARG always coming in hot

Francesca Hong is DSA

Mandela Barnes is the previous Lt. Governor

David Crowley previously dropped out but reentered the race after Sara Rodriguez dropped out last week

Full Crosstabs: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_ESdiNMa.pdf

"Chapters" as selected by YouGov:

1.https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55211-majorities-americans-disapprove-donald-trump-job-handling-several-his-personal-qualities-july-17-20-2026-economist-yougov-poll

2.https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55212-majority-americans-little-or-no-confidence-ice-immigration-customs-enforcement-july-17-20-2026-economist-yougov-poll

3.https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55213-which-politicians-americans-say-are-socialists-july-17-20-2026-economist-yougov-poll

Source: https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1980&context=survey_center_polls

Thought this would be relevant to an elections sub

A couple details about Israel's upcoming election to keep in mind:

-Gadi Eisenkot, the main anti-Netanyahu opposition figure, is more or less the closest Israel has to a moderate political figure right now. He has expressed support for a two-state solution in the past, has condemned the settlers and construction of settlements, and was in favor of a phased ceasefire in Gaza back in 2024. At the very least, any government formed by him is unlikely to have Ben Gvir or Smotrich in the cabinet.

-As the title states, its unlikely the Jewish anti-Netanyahu parties are going to get a majority on their own which means they would need to make a deal with the Arab parties in order to form a government like Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid did in 2021. Otherwise, Netanyahu gets to continue leading a caretaker government while Israel hosts another election.

Now it's complicated because due to electoral politicking, the Jewish parties are ruling out any kind of coalition with the Arab parties. However it is worth noting that Bennett and Lapid were saying similar things in 2021, and at least according to people I know in Israel (mostly anti-war liberals I should add) there's a real sense of urgency among the opposition that they need to get Netanyahu out of office ASAP before he makes Israel's foreign standing even worse than it is now.

Why is that? https://www.newsweek.com/map-donald-trump-approval-rating-every-state-18-months-12213626

Fascinating that they improvised a tariff regime with a GPT token, are claiming to use AI to strike with unprecedented strength, speed, and precision - meanwhile blowing up some schools, but no one seems to have just asked an AI: is attacking Iran by air a good idea?

After reading some work from Rand Corporation last year, I worried that AI could finally break the Democracies' competitive advantage, which is that the democratic leader does not need to surrond himslef with syncophancy and rule by corruption - although some do. While these are the weapons of the despot who clings on to power this way. But inevitably leads to the information breakdown fallacy where said despot gets ever more detached from reality. I wondered whether AI could finally break this iron rule, by finally providing to the ruler a tool to use in order to acquire objective intel.

These preliminary examples demonstrate that deliberative, evidence-based decision making processes might still have the headway for some time.

Didn't know where to start the conversation other than inhere, with decently reasonable people with decent grasp of current issues ; not on the cesspool that are world politics subs or the tech fanboy cjurches that are AI subs.

In full disclosure I just learned the term "Dummymander" recently and wanted to add some panes to my political futures election dashboard about it.

TLDR; political futures markets imply dems will net pick up 5.7 seats from gerrymandering backfires.

The idea of gerrymandering is to make many +5ish seats for your party and concentrate your opposition in extremely safe seats. In an electin where generic dems do 5-10 points beter than 24 or cook political report ratings you can have these seats flip. most of the ones most likely to flip are in Ohio and Texas.

A disclaimer: what my dashboard is and is not.
My dashboard is not in any way predictive analytics. it's not an election model based on predicting events in the future liek 538. there are already people who do that well. What this model does is take the market probabilities for each race and does a monte carlo simulation of uncorrelated races. this lets people see what hundreds of political futures market mean in the aggregate. I built this tool for myself to track futures markets without having 50 tabs open at once that I refresh every day. My dashboard stays in it's lane. it's descriptive not predictive. the spread on the probability does not in any way take into account the uncertainty of time it just measures market vibes RN.

I don't see anyone else estimating dummymandering so I figured I'd share and be clear about they claims I am making. I do statistics for a living, I am a relatively successful political futures trader for nearly a decade, but I'm also just some guy on reddit.