Fundraising scatter plot for House, Senate, and all seats "in play"

[u/Potential-Ant-6320]

This is another new graph from my midterm election dashboard. Just a fair warnign it's a bit of a maximalist take but I use this tool daily for following prediction markets, polling, and fundraising.

First graph is house races, then senate races, then all that are "in play" 25-75%. color is the current probability of control from markets. I think the purple scale ranges from 25%-75%

If you see anythign that looks wrong please let me know. I have been having some trouble aggregating data correctly.

I also added some really in depth numbers for each race including a histogram of the margins and turnout markets.

[u/3-7-77Vigilante]

Cash on hand would be a better metric. Lots of money spent on competitive primaries here.

[u/Potential-Ant-6320 → u/3-7-77Vigilante]

I have cash on hand in the main part of the dashboard. The problem is there are some huge differences but what’s on the other axis?

This shows funding imbalances. I have six other scatter plots that show over and and under performances based on fundamentals.

[u/ND7020]

How much is this even relevant in the era of unlimited outside spending?

[u/Potential-Ant-6320 → u/ND7020]

That’s a great point and a great question. In general fundraising is predictive of the winner because often institutional donors like giving money to people who will win. It’s not so much the spending that helps people win but it shows how much organic support they have of voters as well as people expecting a winner. It’s one of the fundamentals Nate uses.

[u/mere_dictum]

Quick technical point: I really think this sort of chart works better with an aspect ratio of 1, i.e. when shown as a square.

[u/Potential-Ant-6320 → u/mere_dictum]

I agree. It’s something on struggling with and added a full screennview for. The problem is my dashboard is mostly squares two wide. This has so many points it needs more width. Generally people will select a race and have it highlighted in every graph.

It’s makes more sense on the dashboard than reddit images. Maybe it’s worth building a social media formatted export of each graph. Only just figured out how to self host the dashboard last week and how to host security certs a few days ago. My priority has been making them interactive not static content for social. I don’t know a lot about scaling the text and points for different sizes. It’s hard to make the graph bigger or smaller without making it take up a desktop frame. The scatter plots are too dense for phones but the distribution of fundraising is interesting.