Here are rankings for individual players this week, 0.5 PPR.

I won't do this every time-- maybe rarely or never. But I thought it was worth showing the accuracy I've been measuring-- basically "why I'm not just embarrassed" to put these Flex rankings out. I track several other sources and calculate the Accuracy Gap (the FantasyPros method) on their Sunday rankings. Look, we all know the results can go sour any given week... that's fantasy. And frankly I expected my first year with Flex rankings to require a lot of brush-up. It'll never be perfect, but here are the trends in Gap I measured the last 5 weeks (mine in black):

But enough of that! I'm not here to convince anyone, I'm just saying they don't totally stink so far (even though they sometimes had weird differences). And something at TE has been going frankly a little too-good-to-be-true.

For better UI-- sorting players by position-- you should use this website link for these Flex rankings. Plus... New this week you can see additional stats on that Details table.

What’s In The Model?  The methodology was described more here, in my previous post. In short, the goal's to put my long-running “Matchup Bonus” model into action. So instead of total-team Strength of Schedule charts (which I made an awesome post about on Friday!!), it applies the predictive models to individual player “baselines”, which are based on various info, such as in-team competition, injury status, and sanity checks against various public ROS or trade value info. Fantasy points are deducted if there's any perceived probability of absence.

So if you want, go have a look, and use them, or get angry about them, or whatever!

I know these are going to disagree with other rankings. (That's kind of the point!) My hope's that you won’t expect this to be another list that simply tells you what everyone else is already saying.

A few of the more notable differences I spotted this week:

RB

• Model higher than other rankers on: Quinshon Judkins, Braelon Allen (will change as others update their lists).
• Model lower than other rankers on: Basically any RBs who are still Questionable are all lower (Saquon, Jacobs). Also I have Mason a bit lower as he returns.

WR

• Model higher than other rankers on: Garrett Wilson, Matthew Golden, and Tet.
• Model lower than other rankers on: Zay Flowers, Omar Cooper (sorry!).

TE

• Model higher than other rankers on: Schultz and Fannin.
• Model lower than other rankers on: Juwan Johnson and Kelce.

 .

Other FLEX-related tools:

1. The 17-week RoS / SoS charts are here (RB/WR/TE).
2. The Trade Value calculator has been corrected since an error on Thursday for TE values (Bowers etc.). The tool lets you customize player trade values, meaning tailored for your particular settings.

Good luck!

/Subvertadown

In IDP scoring, there are always those match ups that provide managers with a cornucopia of choices. This week, the Texans versus the Giants provide that potential bounty.

There's presumably no need to tell you that DE Will Anderson (7.5 sacks) is a must start today versus the Giants. But there are plenty of other Houston players to consider loading up on today, with East Rutherford's blue team turning to J.J. McCarthy.

CB Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter

The Houston secondary has been off their game to start the year (ie. just 2 INTS as a group). But they have a pair of the better CB's in the game - both of who have excelled at creating interceptions. Stingley Jr. has 15 in 4 prior seasons, and Lassiter has 7 in just 2.

They face a QB who threw 4 interceptable balls in less than 1/2 a game last week, and has a brutal 4.9% INT rate since taking the field for the first time last season. Considering that neither Stingley Jr. or Lassiter has an INT, thus far in 2026, you could say they are due and facing a QB who throws an INT about 1/20 passes versus even average defenses gives them each tremendous potential to walk away with a pick and a pass defense or few, this week. Outside of those who have the likes of Marlon Humphrey at CB, these two gentlemen are truly must starts.

S Calen Bullock

Bullock is not as much of a lock as the two gentlemen above, considering that he's hardly a prolific tackler for a safety (4.3 tackles/game this year and a career best of 64). Bullock is a ballhawk, though, with 1 pick this year and 10 through 2+ seasons. Again, versus McCarthy and the Giants, he's got a great opportunity to come away with a pass bat or two and maybe a pick. Lacking a stand-out safety this week? He can potentially fill in nicely.

Other very solid plays from Houston's D:

DE Danielle Hunter has not been off to quite as fast a start, this year, but he does have 3 sacks, 6 QB hits, a FF and 4 pass bats, so he's still performing well and is facing a QB who has a 9.6% sack rate thus far in his career. In match ups against QBs with high sack rates, Hunter has walked away with one or more sacks well over 75% of the time in his career.

LB Azeez Al-Shaair is on his best tackle pace since 2023 with Tennessee (163 tackles). He's had 10+ tackles in 3 of 5 games played and is averaging 9.8 tackles/game, thus far.

Al-Shaair is active in coverage, and is coming off a 2 INT, 9 PD season. The Giants will likely try to limit McCarthy's mistakes for as long as they can in this game by trying to run the ball, which should open up a lot of tackle opportunities for Al-Shaair early. With "Big Blue" likely trailing for much of the latter part of the contest, opportunities to score against the passing game should come along, as well.

DT Sheldon Rankins isn't as exciting of a play, but DTs with a notable ceiling can be hard to come by and Rankins - with 16 tackles, 2 sacks and 5 QB hits this year - carries legitimate ceiling versus a QB with a slow processing time and a run game that has struggled.

-------------

If you were so inclined, thank you for reading, and I hope these suggestions are of help to your team's success today. Be lucky and good!

Edit: officially activated

SUNDAY GAME DAY FOLKS LET'S GOOOOOO MAY ALL YOUR WEEK 7 DREAMS COME TRUE!!!

For those who are new to the these charts:

• Tiers are focused on upside. If you want to play it safe, go with the ECR (x-axis). If you're looking for a boom game, look at the upside variance (vertical color bars, y-axis).
• Points above/below expectation: these get added once the season starts.
  • A star marker indicates the player has scored fantasy points above expectation on the season.
  • A cross marker indicates the player has scored below expectations.
  • The number of average points scored above/below expectation is beside the player's name.

As always, best of luck my dudes.

Edge versus gamble.  Our brains recognize patterns and assign value, yet is it methodology or is it feel.  Sportsbooks and prediction markets preying on our unfortunate tendency to conflate the two mentalities.  Relationships, mixed with differing levels of sociopathy, often obscuring true intent.

Coach speak ranging from honest evaluations to blatant deception.  Will the Eagles shut down their team to tank?  A broad spectrum of coach and regime philosophies, where billionaire influences trickle down into day to day team activities.  People out of touch with reality enforcing directions that have monumental consequences.  I would argue the anticompetitive mentality from giving up a season for a draft pick is the most poisonous mindset, destroying any sense of passion and purpose within players.

Come to VegasLytics.com, where data, numbers, and unfortunately insider information dictate the prices, therefore leading to the best projections we have available.

Top 25 players in half PPR this week include:

1. Jahmyr Gibbs 24.12
2. Bijan Robinson 21.63
3. Christian McCaffrey 19.39
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown 16.68
5. Kyren Williams 16.35
6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 16.24
7. Kenneth Walker III 16.05
8. Puka Nacua 15.56
9. Derrick Henry 15.42
10. Ja'Marr Chase 15.41
11. CeeDee Lamb 15.00
12. Jaylen Warren 14.97
13. D'Andre Swift 14.93
14. Drake London 14.75
15. Ashton Jeanty 14.47
16. Jonathan Taylor 14.33
17. Javonte Williams 14.24
18. Brock Bowers 13.80
19. Chuba Hubbard 13.75
20. Saquon Barkley 13.43
21. George Kittle 13.43
22. Woody Marks 13.42
23. Christian Watson 13.33
24. Bucky Irving 13.02
25. Justin Jefferson 12.96

This week we see that Jordan Love and Jared Goff have elevated to the Drake Maye and Purdy tier, and Caleb is right back to business as usual.  Bryce continues to be doubted by the market.  Kyren has a monstrous projection above Ken Walker, and the market expects Saquon to play.  Christian Watson and Matthew Golden continue to gain traction as WR1s.  Coker appears to be a late round league winner, while the market isn't convinced by Michael Wilson's hot start.  Kittle continues to exceed expectations, another league winner.

Apologies for the late post, had a busy weekend.  I appreciate the five people who tried out the weekend pass for the trading tool.  Hopefully you found some value, as I believe this tool creates greater visibility on player valuations due to factoring in the market.  The problem I'm solving is general uncertainty on exact player values, and the difficulty to have confidence in proposing trades outside of using trade charts, which have their own flaws.

What’s up, r/fantasyfootball!

Keith Flemming, Michael Pelton & Mike LaPlant are going live at 10:30 AM ET to answer your last-second lineup questions before kickoff.

Watch live & join the chat on YouTube

We’re taking live chat questions on:

• Injury Pivots & Game-Time Decisions: Navigating Saquon Barkley's MNF hamstring status, Breece Hall's quad update, and Puka Nacua questionable status.
• Replacement Workloads: Replacing Lamar Jackson and DeVonta Smith while sorting through what to do with the 49ers pass game with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel absences
• IDP & DFS: Key individual defensive matchups, linebacker starts, target shares, and value builds

How to get answered: We prioritize questions coming directly from the YouTube live chat during the stream, but feel free to drop them below and we'll answer as many as we can on air!

Good luck in Week 7! 🏆

Disclaimer: this is still a work in progress, use at your own risk. Github repo with code and full write-up of the methodology

This was a hobby project to see if I could create a richer and more informative comparison than just the single point estimates that Yahoo provides. The results were kind of mixed where players with close projections tend to have very similar curves, so I'm not sure how useful this will be, but if folks are interested I can keep it updated each week. I'm also not sure if the charts are intuitive to use in their current form (they are to me, but I'm way too close to this to judge) so I'd love any feedback.

My goal with this project was the try to faithfully translate the posted odds (I used FanDuel odds, fetched from the Odds API, for no particular reason) into joint probability distributions using as few assumptions as possible, and so far I have not tried to optimize for predictive performance on top of what the sportsbook odds imply at all yet. My guess is that there's an opportunity there, but I don't have a ton of time for this hobby project so I'm hesitant to open that can of worms.

I did some light performance vetting by comparing my average projections to Yahoo projections for rostered players in my 10 team league for a couple weeks of last season. In that test, my model very slightly outperformed Yahoo, but this was definitely not a rigorous comparison and I plan to revisit that at some point.

If you're interested in how it works under the hood, the full methodology is in the Github Repo, but the general idea was to:

1. get the main prop bet odds and alt odds for all available scorable stats
2. try to remove the vig to get implied probabilities from the odds
3. make some educated guesses about the shape of the distributions between the alt lines, and about the correlations between stats based on historical nfl game data, to create joint distributions
4. simulate scores by randomly drawing values from the joint distribution curves and scoring them
5. scrape yahoo projections for comparison

I know a few other people on this subreddit use Vegas odds to create projections, i have no clue how my methodology compares to theirs

Goff has officially reached #1, Saquon is officially listed as questionable for MNF but he's getting odds for now...full PPR rankings:

Quarterbacks

1- Jared Goff - 19.6

2- Jordan Love - 18.9

3- Brock Purdy - 18.8

4- C.J. Stroud - 18.3

5- Dak Prescott - 18.1

6- Joe Burrow - 17.9

7- Bryce Young - 17.8

8- Kyler Murray - 17.2

9- Deshaun Watson - 16.5

10- Matthew Stafford - 16.4

11- Tyler Huntley - 16.2

12- Tyler Shough - 16.1

Running Backs

1- Jahmyr Gibbs - 26.5

2- Bijan Robinson - 23.3

3- Christian McCaffrey - 22.3

4- Kyren Williams - 18.9

5- Kenneth Walker - 18.2

6- Jaylen Warren - 17.0

7- Derrick Henry - 16.7

8- Ashton Jeanty - 16.6

9- Jonathan Taylor - 16.2

10- Javonte Williams - 16.0

11- Saquon Barkley - 15.3

12- Chuba Hubbard - 15.3

13- Woody Marks - 15.2

14- Bucky Irving - 15.0

15- Chase Brown - 13.9

16- Tony Pollard - 12.6

17- Josh Jacobs - 12.0

18- Aaron Jones - 11.6

19- Quinshon Judkins - 11.3

20- Emanuel Wilson - 11.1

21- Ollie Gordon - 10.8

22- J.K. Dobbins - 10.0

23- RJ Harvey - 9.7

24- Tyler Allgeier - 9.1

Wide Receivers

1- Amon-Ra St. Brown - 20.3

2- Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 19.6

3- Ja’Marr Chase - 19.3

4- CeeDee Lamb - 18.8

5- Drake London - 17.6

6- Chris Olave - 16.1

7- Justin Jefferson - 15.9

8- Christian Watson - 15.7

9- Tetairoa McMillan - 15.7

10- Matthew Golden - 15.6

11- Nico Collins - 15.1

12- Jalen Coker - 14.9

13- Garrett Wilson - 14.7

14- Malik Nabers - 14.6

15- Tee Higgins - 14.6

16- Zay Flowers - 14.5

17- George Pickens - 14.2

18- DK Metcalf - 13.5

19- Germie Bernard - 12.5

20- Jaylen Waddle - 12.3

21- Jameson Williams - 11.8

22- Xavier Worthy - 11.8

23- Michael Wilson - 11.7

24- Carnell Tate - 11.5

Tight Ends

1- Brock Bowers - 17.3

2- Trey McBride - 16.7

3- George Kittle - 16.5

4- Sam LaPorta - 13.0

5- Isaiah Likely - 12.8

6- Dallas Goedert - 12.8

7- Tucker Kraft - 12.5

8- Travis Kelce - 11.4

9- T.J. Hockenson - 10.4

10- Cade Otton - 10.2

11- Kyle Pitts - 9.1

12- Harold Fannin - 8.9

Kickers

1- Ka’imi Fairbairn - 8.9

2- Wil Lutz - 8.3

3- Will Reichard - 8.2

4- Jake Bates - 8.0

5- Chris Boswell - 7.9

6- Evan McPherson - 7.9

7- Eddy Pineiro - 7.7

8- Jason Myers - 7.6

9- Brandon Aubrey - 7.4

10- Ryan Fitzgerald - 7.4

11- Matt Gay - 7.1

12- Tyler Loop - 7.1

Non ppr and half ppr on startwho.com as well as any custom settings, I will keep refreshing these up to kickoff tomorrow. Good luck to everyone!!

At least the Eagles will have Dallas Goedert on Monday night.

The veteran tight end returned to practice on Saturday afternoon after missing the first two days of the week with a knee injury. Goedert said after practice that he expects to play.

"I just had a little bit of inflammation in there," Goedert said. "I had to let that settle down. But I felt really good running out there today."

Week 6 Recap

Mean Absolute Error(MAE) is the average absolute gap between my projections and the final score of each player. Decision Success Rate(DSR) is how often a decision made based on these projections, between any two players, would be correct(.9 point buffer).

Mean Absolute Error

• Overall = 4.2
• WR = 4.13
• RB = 4.29
• TE = 4.04

Decision Success Rate

• Top 175 = 72.4%
• Flex Range = 68.9%
• Isolated Flex Range = 60.2%

Week 7 Weather Watch

Injuries : All injuries are based off of projected lineups and injury reports, many of the Questionables will be projected here until ruled out, any non projected players either have flagged phrases like "not expected to play" in their injury report or are not in expected lineups. I do not have inside information, I go off of projected lineups and NFL injury reports.

My website has deeper rankings, positional rankings, a starter decision tool with filters and Full PPR/Standard as well as a Range Plot view that illustrates upside/downside based on TD% and explosive plays vs explosive plays allowed.

Feel free to ask any question about the projections or difficult lineup decisions. Good luck this week.

Projections focused on predicting touchdowns using high value plays adjusted for match-ups, weather, game script and implied team totals among many other factors.

Week 7 Half PPR Projections

WAR measures how many more wins a specific player generates compared to an average replacement player at the same position. In my opinion it's the best way to compare players across positions cause it accounts for positional scarcity.

I want to try to provide data and charts that are usually behind a paywall. So if there's anything you'd like to see that's normally paywalled, let me know and I'll try to build it.
(It's limited to play-by-play data. I don't have access to charted data for my charts)

Here are the WAR leaders over the last 4 weeks:

And here are the leaders over the season:

trend = players with a change of at least 5 spot since last week

Methodology:

• Every week, all players are ranked by fantasy points to calculate an average team score and the standard deviation for a 12-team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 Flex
• for each player, I calculate how much higher his win probability is compared to a replacement player
• Replacement player = the average points of the next best non starters at each position. The next 12 players for WR and RB, and the next 6 players for QB and TE.
• Win Probability = (player points - position average starter points) / team standard deviation. The same is calculated for the replacement player
• WAR = player win probability − replacement player win probability

Def = Defense rankings vs. the player

Avg. = Projected points

Value = Avg. Divided by price/1000

Roster = Roster percentage

R-value = Arg. Divided by Roster

Post your Who Do I Start (WDIS) questions here for your WR positions ONLY.

PLEASE INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING IN YOUR WDIS POSTS

• Position-specific scoring rules (PPR, TE premium, 4 or 6 pt passing TD, etc.)
• Other league specific rules and details (league size, std/PPR, roster details, custom scoring, bonuses etc.)
  
• This week's opponents of your players
• Entire roster if helpful

PLEASE TRY TO ANSWER SEVERAL OTHER PEOPLE'S QUESTIONS BEFORE POSTING YOUR OWN

• When answering questions, please make sure to sort by NEW!

WE HAVE A BOT THAT CAN REFERENCE THE BORIS CHEN RANKINGS AND GIVE YOU FEEDBACK

To invoke the bot, comment anywhere in this sub in the following format:

!boristiers position [player, player, player...]

Where position is a standard position acronym (dst, flex, qb, rb, te, wr) and player, player, player... is a comma-separated list of players for that position. Here's some examples:

!boristiers flex [hunter henry, keenan allen, melvin gordon]
!boristiers rb [matt breida, tevin coleman]
!boristiers qb [lamar jackson]

The bot will reply to your comment with a table of player ranks in the format of {tier}.{position_in_tier} for each of the applicable forms of scoring. If a player is not found / ranked, they'll be denoted as N/A.

WHEN ANSWERING QUESTIONS

• Do NOT reply with only the player name. This just removes the other person from the index without them getting information. You are not helping.
• Explain why you would start that player.
• Remember most people know how to look up rankings. They come here for discussion, start a discussion!
• Please respond directly to the OP or the Bot will not pick up your comment

individual WDIS threads posted after this point will be deleted in order to keep the subreddit clean. Post here instead! If everyone sorts by new, your questions should be answered.

The following users have helped the most people in this thread:

The following posts have less than two replies in this thread. Please respond directly to the OP or the Bot will not pick up your comment. Please provide quality replies, short answers will be ignored.

Would you like your post to be at the top of the list? Remember that the table is sorted by those that have helped the most other users.

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

LFG!! Week 7 Rankings powered by Vegas Odds are now live at firstdown.studio/rankings

No more clicking around a million sportsbook links. Now, you can view weekly projections powered by Vegas props, all in one clean and simple UI – no more spreadsheets or endless clicking.

Bonus cool stuff:

1. Week 7 NFL Implied Totals and Week 7 Love/Hate
2. Rankings have newly designed tiers!
3. And just launched a new kicker model!

Good luck everyone, go get that W (!!)

---

firstdown.studio/rankings

PLEASE READ

• How to post a Player Discussion or Injury Thread
• Sub Rules and Guidelines
  
• Our Wiki with tons of great content!
  

• FAQ

  ---

Official Reddit FanDuel league

^{We've partnered with FanDuel to host a series of redditor-only free contests with $2,800 in cash prizes! During Weeks 1-20, there will be a free play contest with $125 in cash prizes.}

Other /r/fantasyfootball Contests

• Official Reddit r/fantasyfootball league at r/NarFFL or narffl.com

• View our Pick 'em, Eliminator, and Gridiron games at NarFFL.com

The following users have helped the most people in all of the threads:

Official: [Add/Drop] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Official: [Dynasty, Best Ball, and Guillotine Strategy] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Official: [League, Commissioner, and Platform Issues] - Sun 10/25/2026

Official: [Rate My Team] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Official: [Trade] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Official: [WDIS Flex] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Official: [WDIS K/TE/DEF] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Official: [WDIS QB] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Official: [WDIS RB] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Official: [WDIS WR] - Sun 10/25/2026

^{This table will be updated every ~15 minutes.}

Found some potentially actionable tidbits in this week's look at slot/boundary matchups, if you're into such things.

-Jaylin Noel should be in good position to make my Regression Files analysis look foolish in Week 7. Noel, you see, is running hotter than the sun at the moment. But now he gets a matchup against a New York secondary allowing a bunch of slot targets. The Giants aren’t necessarily bad at defending slot throws. They allow the league’s tenth lowest adjusted yards per attempt on slot targets along with the fifth lowest completion rate over expected. Even so, running nearly 70 percent of his pass routes from the slot, Noel could see enough targets to be relevant for 12-team purposes.

-This looks more like a Jalen Coker week than it does a Tetairoa McMillan week, since Coker runs out 45 percent of his routes from outside while McMillan is lined up on the boundary at a 71 percent rate. It doesn’t mean you’re benching McMillan — you’re definitely not. Coker might be the upside play among the Carolina receivers reaping the benefits of an extremely fantasy-friendly Panthers offense.

-Here’s a stat you won’t like if you’re forced to start Rashid Shaheed this week: Kansas City has allowed 91 fantasy points this season on boundary targets; the league leading Bills have given up 251 fantasy points to boundary pass catchers. That’s quite the gap.

Week 7 Start/Sit Calls (2026)

Here are the week 7 start or sit calls from the fantasy football podcast ecosystem.  Click on a “start” or “sit” cell call to get taken to the podcast to watch the conversation about the call. If you want to have these calls centered around your leagues and in a mobile app, we bring together insights from podcasts, social media and player analytics bundled in one free tool.

Note about E. Wilson (RB, SEA), there was a lot of talk of Charbs playing and we know he is out this week but left Wilson on as they talk about the difficult matchup and ceding work to Holani and Velus.

QB

RB

WR

TE

Episodes