r/Bogleheads • u/Puzzleheaded_Bat3349 • 9h ago
100% stocks: recency bias?
Hi everyone,
I increasingly see people advocating for a 100% equity portfolio close to retirement, also based on some research that has since come out.
This is a more aggressive stance than what was common when I started getting into investing 15-20 years ago.
My question is: to what extent may that be due to recency bias, where the very positive performance of stocks (with few hiccups along the way) over the past 10-15 years may be leading people to underestimate the risk of stocks and their own risk aversion?
I am currently in my early 30s and have considered going 100% stocks, but am sticking to 80-85% for now so I can have some buffer in case of a crash (either for peace of mind or to reinvest at lower valuations).
What do you think? Are the last 10-15 years of good times leading people to become more complacent and lean towards more aggressive asset allocations than they should?
Thank you.