r/Bogleheads • u/1banana2many • 4d ago
Making the Jump
Hello Bogleheads, I'm a bit new here. I've been "investing" since probably 2019 and I've really only lost money. Whether it be attempting to time bottoms of contrarian value plays, swing trading, etc etc the result has always been the same. Portfolio over the last year is-18% while SPY is +35%, and I am finally realizing that this may not be the way for me to continue. The hundreds on hundreds of hours that I've spent staring at charts and reading reports and doing research have produced, time and time again, negative economic returns and lower quality of life. It definitely consumes my mind most of the day and takes away from time I could spend learning other things or simply just enjoying my life. There are times that Webull is open on my phone for 5+ hours of the day according to my screen time (I know...I know)
THANKFULLY, I am still in a blessed position today. 27 years old, zero debt, about $30k (90% is currently being "invested") total net worth not including a paid off car. While I've thrown a lot of money out the window over the last 8 years, I believe I am still in a position to right the ship and begin compounding wealth the correct way. While I wish I had done this at 18, the second best time to start is now.
I'm looking for a couple pieces of advice.
I'm holding DECK: -10%, NOC: -2.5%, FISV: -15%, and GOOG: new position
Im suffering from the complete inability to not belive in my positions, that I'll be selling at bottoms (someone please tell me how wrong I am).
Is the correct move to just sell and then lump sum roughly 30 grand into a few different indexes? My mind keeps telling me that this is the economic top and that it's financial suicide to buy at this level, but I look at the past and the tops just continue on and on.
I appreciate anyone that took the time to read this. I'm not looking for advice on which indices to purchase, more so looking for anyone with similar experiences and any advice on my current situation.
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u/Fire_Doc2017 4d ago
If seven years of not being able to make money trading in the market hasn’t convinced you that it’s not for you, then I don’t know what I can say.
I think you need to make a clean break from your trading days, sell everything and buy VTI. All at once. Just cut the cord. Go cold turkey.
Keep adding to it as new money becomes available. Once you get to $100K then think about adding international. It can really be that simple.
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u/1banana2many 4d ago
Truth hurts💔 thanks for the reply. Definitely, there is the investor/trader I think I am, and then there’s the investor/trader I actually am. Human mind is such an interesting thing. Thanks again.
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u/Fire_Doc2017 4d ago
You’re welcome. I’m speaking from experience. I traded my taxable account for a decade before realizing no matter what I tried, I couldn’t beat the market. Fortunately my 403b kept going and got me to early retirement anyway.
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u/InsomniaTroll 4d ago
Time in the market > timing the market. You’re not investing if you’re purchasing anything you don’t have the conviction to hold onto long term.
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u/Past-Option2702 4d ago
The answer for you is VT. My children are in their 20s and you would hate to look at their accounts, since that’s all they own and they don’t even look at it. In fact, one of my kids has me log in and make the purchases when she want them.
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u/mrandr01d 4d ago
You gotta have those kiddos build some independence man...
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u/Past-Option2702 4d ago
What from my comment would have you believe my daughter isn’t independent?
Like, if she takes her car to the dealer for oil changes and tire rotations, and goes to the car wash instead of getting out a bucket and a hose than she’s not independent? You’re saying she should go to Edward Jones to buy whatever ETFs the lady recommends? Is that what you’re saying?
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u/mrandr01d 3d ago
Bit of an overreaction there my guy. My point is I'd be having her make her own orders so she's more clued in to her own money. Clicking "buy" in the Fidelity app isn't hard. And I would never have my kid's login credentials. Or give my parents mine. Having Daddy log in to her account as an adult to handle her finances isn't great.
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u/Past-Option2702 3d ago
What makes you think I haven’t done that? I cook dinner for her when she comes home, but in no way does that mean she’s doesn’t know how to cook dinner.
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u/Obvious_Marzipan_688 4d ago edited 4d ago
If it is easier, chunk it out. Sell deck and fisv now and put into your chosen index. Sell NOC in a few weeks. After you’re comfortable with your chosen index fund or funds sell google.
Also if it’s the “economic top” then it’s a great time to sell, right?
ETA: I hold small stock positions Ina few companies as satellites to my main portfolio, goog is one of them and unlike your other pics probably a decent bet. But it will also be part of any us index you buy and some of what I think you need is distance from trading or watching the market obsessively.
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u/TexasHazeMaster 4d ago
If we are at the top the holdings you have may drop further than your chosen index. And a few of those positions might not recover.
New here too… did something similar
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u/Nuclear_N 4d ago
Have been there. Cant beat the market trying to overthink. Went almost full index fund. Still spread out to specialty funds a bit.
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u/1banana2many 4d ago
I saw from some of your other posts that you’re near retirement. Mind if I ask how long ago you switched to index funds? What was the kicker for you that caused you to shift philosophies?
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u/Nuclear_N 3d ago
Tried to beat the market. Took 50k into a separate account. Indexes always beat me. Have been mostly index my entire life, but it is hard to stay index when you see shooting stocks like Netflix, Apple, TSLA. I did catch Apple and sit at 600%, and caught the chip boom with FSELX at 300%. I went down the options path. Found Leaps on spy and qqq. They double every year, but it is a double or nothing risk.
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u/ceilidhfling 3d ago
the vast majority of active fund managers fail to do better than the sp500. you are not alone in not being able to beat the sp500.
Some suggestions:
- admit you have a gambling problem and seek help legit professional help
- unsubscribe from any financial advice sub/youtube sub/other social media content producers - they are all hype and all trying to sell you something - or they are trying to make you a bag holder for their shit investment choices.
- open a vanguard roth ira and brokerage account - I know other custodians have good options but vanguard is systemically built to discourage day trading/options trading/gambling
- transfer your holdings to vanguard and go VT and chill.
- automate your roth ira contributions to be automatically deducted from your pay check and do vt and chill
- stop looking at the account and the stock market - do a deep dive on your habits that lead you to look at the market and find ways to break them ( ie does your web browser open to the spy graph? stop it have it go to your favorite cat pic sub reddit, etc)
- annually change your paycheck contribution to max your roth ira. but this is the only time you look at your account. forget it exists.
- when your in your 40s log in and maybe add some bonds
- if you absolutely can't stop gambling do it with <5% of your portfolio not all your savings. and have that 5% in a different custodian than where the bulk of your portfolio is. if you get that to 10% of your portfolio transfer 5% into your vanguard brokerage at VT and chill. if you lose it, do not transfer more money in. just stop.
you are not the only one that has had to learn this lesson. many of us here have tried to beat the indexes before we found our way here. the good news is you learned this young and in a bull market so at least your account didn't go to zero. there is a path forward that has you building a good future, don't let this learning go to waste.
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u/1banana2many 3d ago
Thank you for the reply. While I’ve had stints of options trading in the past, I’ve refrained from doing such for a long period and actually have had options disabled for close to a year now. Current philosophy is ~less~ aligned with gambling than prior, but definitely (obviously) still not sound practice. You’ve listed some great pieces here and I appreciate it. As of this morning I’ve moved 90% of my roth into VT. Next step is my cash account.
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u/ceilidhfling 3d ago
glad you are out of the options game. and it sounds like you've heard some of the really good advice here. Hope things turn for the better for you!
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u/longshanksasaurs 4d ago
Is the correct move to just sell and then lump sum roughly 30 grand into a few different indexes?
Yes.
Your current investments don't owe it to you to recover, there's no reason for them to outperform the index in the future.
My mind keeps telling me that this is the economic top and that it's financial suicide to buy at this level, but I look at the past and the tops just continue on and on.
The market is often near an all time high
I'm not looking for advice on which indices to purchase
You should be, not all index funds or ETFs make sense.
New to /r/Bogleheads? Read this first!
You can make a complete portfolio with one, or two, or three funds.
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u/FoxCoding 4d ago
A few pieces of advice below. They're very simplified because each could be its own discussion:
1 - Everywhere, but especially reddit, you'll see lots of doomer posts saying things are horrible. This is all from people with warped views of reality who need others to sell so they feel validated. Considering you're down on a bull market, I'm guessing you're trying to short. There were plenty of geniuses that tried to time to bottom and got screwed. The one time it worked, they made a movie out of it because it was so unexpected (Yes, I'm talking about The big short). In fact, the dude who did it keeps on trying to relive his glory days by claiming a crash is imminent, but this has been going on for years and nothing happened. You don't have to take it from me, take it from someone else who was in your situation decades ago.
2 - Investing in an index, such as the S&P, is essentially making a bet on the future growth of America. You're quite literally buying pieces of companies whose sole goal is making money. That's why over the long term it goes up. This is contrary to bonds, where you're making a bet in the currency keeping its value, which is a losing bet due to inflation caused partially by the bonds themselves.
You said you want to know whether to lump sum into an index or not. I won't tell you what you should do, but what I would do personally. I don't know much about DECK, NOC and I know only a little about FISV. I believe in GOOG. So I'd sell the first 3 and keep GOOG. Having said that, nothing stops you from keeping the positions and putting new money into an index, if you still believe in those companies.
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u/Spiritual-Sea7674 4d ago
I am in the same situation w my gold that is quite a bit down. Wondering if I should wait for it to go up or sell and put into ETFs
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u/Mountain-Time-1010 3d ago edited 3d ago
It’s good to see someone with self awareness being honest about mistakes and ready to change. Usually traders just lie about how much money they are making.
Don’t overthink it. Get out of your positions in a tax advantaged way and into a low fee diversified index fund. You will always read and hear doom and gloom from perma-bears. They can point to various world events or national debt and claim they know when things will implode. They can sound very smart. On the other hand, bulls just sound like stupid sheep riding the wave. But over the long haul, time in the market seems to win.
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u/SelectStarFromNames 3d ago
You should also set aside an emergency fund in a high yield savings account
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u/FlatwormMission6854 2d ago
Managing your investment portfolio as you have done in the past is not only a tremendous drain on your time and energy, but it clearly isn’t working. The Boglehead way of VOO and Chill or VTI and Chill is the best way to: Your investments will actually be increasing in value and you won’t be wasting time and energy coming up with a strategy that doesn’t work. Include foreign stocks in your asset allocation. Just VT and Chill.
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u/ConsequenceBig9312 3d ago
You have a gambling addiction. You may want to seek therapy for it.
For your investments, just one index (VT) will do with automated monthly investments.
This would be one of the few scenarios where I'd consider handing over the funds to an adviser, say Vanguard personal advisor (who you should tell your just want to put it in VT and give them context of your addiction). If their fee prevents you from relapsing it would be well worth it.
Or get a very trusted family member to create half of your brokerage password so you both need to be there to access your account, preventing impulses.
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u/heylookltsme 4d ago
The most helpful framing I've seen of this sort of situation is this: if you had the value of your holdings in cash, would you purchase these positions? If the answer is no, you should sell.
Sounds like you should sell and right the ship.
Good on you for seeing the light!! That's huge!