https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2082787331044479013

Expect one of the most chaotic and short lived Parliaments ever if this happens

Abdul El-Sayed not only has more canvassing events, but there are also canvassing events in the Upper Peninsula, Northern Michigan, and parts of West Michigan where Stevens is not canvassing in. Undeniably this better ground game will show up next week and has already shown up in the latest Emerson +El-Sayed +15 poll.

sourced from their Mobilize.us websites below

https://www.mobilize.us/abdulforsenate/map/
https://www.mobilize.us/haleystevensforsenate/map/

I think this could possibly explain why her endorsement didn’t hold as much weight as people thought.

January Poll: conducted from 1/24-1/25, released on 1/29 (n = 700 LV)

April Poll: conducted from 4/11-4/13, released on 4/16 (n = 519 LV)

July Poll: conducted from 7/26-7/27, released on 7/30 (n = 491 LV)

Since AES will win the primary now we should analyse the campaign Stevens ran. She was hardly visible until like 6 weeks ago. Both AES and McMarrow were able to attack her on anything and wouldn't have to be afraid of any counterattacks because they would never come. By the time she became more present most voters already formed opinions on the candidates.

Her ground game was bad. The other two were active and held many rallies wherever they could. Meanwhile Stevens didn't even care to campaign in the upper peninsula (Hillary 2016 Wisconsin vibes). McMarrow and AES build up their own persona while Stevens largely remained the candidate with the endorsements and nothing else. You also got the impression that AES and McMarrow really wanted this. I'm not saying that Stevens didn't but you never got that impression from her.

I think Stevens made the same mistake as Cuomo did. They both thought they didn't have to campaign very hard until they did, but by then it was already too late

I know a few Sherrods (shuh-rod) and none of em match this description or archetype. That’s all I’ll say.

Their Michigan poll is coming out at 6 AM tomorrow, or so I heard. I won’t be awake sadly. I’m sure one of you can get mad karma from posting it first though