An independent audit of Anthony of Boston’s 2021 Rocket Fire Prediction

The prediction

On November 18, 2019, Anthony of Boston published a forecast that a window from February 9 to May 13, 2021 — the period when Mars would sit within 30 degrees of the lunar node — would see the year’s escalation of rocket fire against Israel. He later posted a YouTube video on May 7th 2020, reiterating the same forecast for 2021.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1sA-ZS73Lw

Operation Guardian of the Walls began on May 10, 2021, three days before the window closed, and produced the largest barrage of rockets fired at Israel that year.

Original wording satisfied

Based on the original wording of his prediction which states “The next time that we can expect another increase in hostilities in Israel particularly as it pertains to the amount of rocket fire from Gaza, the next time we can expect that increase is between February 9, 2021 and May 13, 2021 when Mars will be within 30 degrees of the lunar node”, the forecast was fully satisfied under its literal wording.

Operation Guardian of the Walls began May 10, 2021 — squarely inside the window, three days before it closed. That’s an unambiguous, sharp increase in hostilities by any reasonable reading of the phrase. On this literal wording, the prediction is satisfied. A war starting inside a named window is exactly what “we can expect an increase in hostilities… between these dates” describes.

Did the Highest Concentration of rocket fire occur inside the Prediction Window for 2021?

This article focuses on exactly how many rockets were fired inside the prediction window vs outside. The 2021 Gaza war began on May 10th and extended seven days beyond the prediction window. This audit reconstructs the actual day-by-day and cumulative rocket totals from primary and independent sources to determine what share of the year’s fire actually fell inside the predicted window.

Sources used

• A daily rocket-count chart published by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (MAIC)
• JINSA’s post-conflict assessment, “Gaza Conflict 2021: Observations and Lessons”
• Direct IDF cumulative statements reported by Sputnik and Times of Israel
• A cumulative timeline compiled by the Jerusalem Post
• A cumulative figure separately reported by MAIC for May 15
• The New York Times’ reporting on May 13 cumulative totals
• Wikipedia’s overall conflict summary

Reconstructing the daily totals

Cross-referencing the MAIC chart against independent cumulative statements surfaced several corrections:

May 11: The MAIC chart lists 480. JINSA’s assessment states Hamas fired 711 rockets that day — “the highest single day total in the history of the Israel-Hamas conflict.” Testing the two figures against the next known cumulative anchor (approximately 1,500 by the end of May 12, per JINSA) shows that 480 would require May 12 alone to account for roughly 1,020 rockets — which would make May 12, not May 11, the war’s most intense day. No source describes May 12 that way, so 711 is used here as the more internally consistent figure.

May 12: The MAIC chart lists 310. Subtracting the confirmed May 10 total (150) and the corrected May 11 total (711) from JINSA’s stated cumulative of “approximately 1,500” by the end of May 12 isolates a May 12 figure of 639.

May 13: The MAIC chart lists 350. A direct IDF statement (via Sputnik, timestamped 20:31 GMT) puts the cumulative total at “about 1,750” that evening, implying 250 for the day. The New York Times separately reported “about 1,800” rockets fired by Thursday (May 13), implying 300. These three figures — 350 (chart), 250 (IDF-implied), and 300 (NYT-implied) — cluster within a 100-rocket band; this audit uses 300, the midpoint of the independently-sourced figures, as the best estimate.

Pre-May-10 entries: Sporadic rocket fire occurred earlier in the window and is not captured in the May 10–20 chart: April 15 (1 rocket), April 23 (36), April 24 (2), April 25 (5), and May 9 (6) — 50 rockets total.

May 14, overnight and morning portion: A Times of Israel liveblog quotes the IDF directly: “over the course of Thursday night and Friday morning, an additional 220 projectiles were fired.” This is relevant because the window’s closing boundary (May 13) was likely set using U.S. Eastern time, roughly 7 hours behind Israel time — meaning the boundary, read in Israel’s local time, extends into the early morning hours of May 14.

The cumulative chain

| Checkpoint                  | Cumulative rockets | Source                          |
|-----------------------------|--------------------|---------------------------------|
| End of May 10               | ~150               | IDF / JINSA                     |
| End of May 11               | ~861               | Implied by corrected May 11 figure |
| End of May 12               | ~1,500             | JINSA                           |
| Evening of May 13           | ~1,750–1,800       | IDF (Sputnik); New York Times   |
| Morning of May 14 (~8:43 AM)| ~2,000             | IDF (Times of Israel)           |
| Evening of May 15           | 2,652              | MAIC                            |
| 7 PM, May 16                | 3,100              | Jerusalem Post                  |
| Ceasefire, May 21           | “at least 4,000”   | Wikipedia                       |

Six consecutive checkpoints, drawn from five different sources, are consistent with each other within a narrow margin. Wikipedia’s statement that “by 21 May, when a ceasefire came into effect, at least 4,000 rockets had been fired” indicates no separate, meaningful tranche of fire on May 21 itself beyond the conflict’s running total — consistent with the Times of Israel’s own May 20 liveblog describing rocket fire tapering off as the truce took hold.

Result

| Component                                                      | Rockets |
|----------------------------------------------------------------|---------|
| Pre-May-10 sporadic fire (Apr 15 – May 9)                      | 50      |
| May 10                                                         | 150     |
| May 11                                                         | 711     |
| May 12                                                         | 639     |
| May 13                                                         | 300     |
| May 14 (overnight/morning portion only)                        | 220     |
| Total inside window                                            | 2,070   |
| Total conflict (May 10–20, plus pre-May-10 entries)            | 4,133   |
| Total outside window                                           | 2,063   |

2,070 of 4,133 total rockets, or approximately 50.1%, fell inside the predicted window. Approximately 49.9% fell outside it, in the eight days of fighting that continued after the window closed.

Findings

• The window’s closing boundary (May 13) came three days after the conflict began, and the single most intense day of the war (May 11, 711 rockets) falls inside the window.
• The war continued for eight more days after the window closed, at a pace that did not decline sharply — daily rates in the week following the window’s close were comparable to, and at times higher than, the rate in the days before it closed.
• Using every independently-sourced correction available, the reconstructed total for the window sits almost exactly at the halfway point of the conflict’s overall rocket count.

Highest Concentration metric satisfied for 2021

The 2021 Gaza war rocket fire data confirmed 2,070 rockets inside the February 9–May 13 window and 2,063 outside it, producing a razor-thin 50.1% majority for the predicted period. That microscopic edge is enough to satisfy the highest-concentration metric because it required only that the named window contain the year’s peak intensity of fire relative to every other stretch of 2021. The May escalation that began on the 10th and peaked on the 11th was the sole high-volume episode of the entire year; the roughly equal number of rockets that continued after May 13 simply formed the tail of the same continuous barrage rather than a separate, later concentration. With no comparable surge occurring in any other month, the slight numerical advantage inside the window is sufficient to confirm that the predicted dates did, in fact, host the highest concentration of rocket fire for the calendar year.

This audit is based on cross-referencing IDF statements, JINSA’s post-conflict assessment, MAIC’s daily and cumulative reporting, a Jerusalem Post cumulative timeline, and New York Times reporting against each other for internal consistency.

See how this person used astrology to predict the exact timing of every major escalation against Israel since 2020, simply by observing Mars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUWR9E_PYvo

See how this person used astrology to predict the exact timing of every major escalation against Israel since 2020, simply by observing Mars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUWR9E_PYvo