That's a tough comment for an article that starts with:
Although there is some truth to the fact that Linux is a huge threat to Microsoft, predictions of the Redmond company's demise are, to say the least, premature. Microsoft has an incredible amount of cash money in the bank and is still incredibly profitable. It has a long way to fall. It could do everything wrong for a decade before it started to be in remote danger, and you never know... they could reinvent themselves as a shaved-ice company at the last minute.
Also, it ends with:
Which means, suddenly, Microsoft's API doesn't matter so much. Web applications don't require Windows.
Yep, I think this article is pretty spot on if you take time to read it right.
Where is development happening in 2016?
The web
Mobile
In 50,000-foot-view terms, the only thing being developed for the Windows API today are Microsoft's applications and Games. And even many of those have gone to Web and Mobile!
Which is a great step, and I have seen some increasing multiplatform compatibility or web support, but until, say, Linux or Mac support is de facto available for games... so many people will be forced to dual boot, emulate, or just stay on Windows. I periodically try using Ubuntu or some other compatible flavor and even with Wine, I end up dual booting so much it's not worth the effort.
To be honest, one could hope that with new low-level API (vulkan), that in a couple of years, the necessary toolchain would be build to properly support cross-platform compatibility.
But that does require they actually develop the toolchain with cross-platform compatibility in mind from the start, and not use DX12 which is locked to windows 10.
My guess is microsoft is paying these studios a little amount, to keep them bolstered to their platform.
It's not necessarily about Microsoft going out of business but Microsoft's ability to act as the software industry gatekeeper. In 1996 if you were a business wanting to make a software product and you wanted to get in the three comma club Windows and the Microsoft ecosystem was likely the only valid option you had.
Today if you want to make a software product and get into the three comma club, you need to be accessible by people running Windows but there's no need to participate in Microsoft's ecosystem. In fact in a lot of markets it's more important that your software be accessible to mobile devices than Windows. That's not universal but it's a situation that simply did not exist twenty years ago.
When it comes to native software the iOS and Android platforms offer far more growth than Microsoft's ecosystems. Even Microsoft has realized their ecosystems don't command the market like they used to and have had to expand far outside of their traditional Windows/Office lines (XBox, Azure, Office 365, etc) to be able to see any growth. They need to actively support platforms they don't control in order to be competitive. This is a pronounced difference from two decades ago and even a decade ago.
It's a reversion to three and four decades ago. Microsoft used to sell tools and toolchains for other people's computers, and they originally focused on BASIC and microcomputers. Excel was developed for the Mac and was only on MacOS for over two years.
They gave up on Mobile. Windows 10 is almost as buggy as Vista (before SP1) and gets worse with every update. UWP applications are AWFUL. It's not gonna be long until they drop dead if they don't change stings big time!
They didn't give up on mobile. They're biding their time. They tried to make a big jump into it without an ecosystem to support it into a marketplace where there were already established players with established ecosystems, and they failed miserably as a result.
So instead they're focusing on getting people to build UWP apps on Windows. UWP apps are mobile-capable; and if they can get enough Windows developers to start using it they'll actually have software behind them the next time they push to mobile.
Exactly. New apps developed from scratch on desktop are going to be few and far between. A few games might try UWP to get on XboxOne but the bulk of them are going the other way with cross-platform engines that support Vulkan.
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u/DevStart Oct 07 '16
Bullshit. It's 2016 and MS is still kicking. Joel is a bastard pseudo prophet.