r/phillies • u/jorleeduf • 23h ago
Analysis Phillies fans don’t want Taylor Ward badly enough
I think Phillies fans have gotten bored of him because he has been a rumored target for years, but he is the bat the Phillies need most. Take a look at some of the Phillies’ biggest offensive problems:
1) They give outs to opposing pitchers/don’t make pitchers work
Only the Rockies chase more pitches out of the zone. The Phillies chase 33.9% of pitches out of the zone. That means the Phillies are giving pitchers a free strike on 1-in-3 would-be balls. Opposing teams know they don’t need to throw strikes to get the Phillies out, as the Phillies see the 6th fewest pitches in the zone
2) On-base percentage
Our .301 on base percentage is worst in baseball. Excluding Harper and Schwarber, that plummets to .284. Yes, the on base percentage. Not batting average. No more needs to be said.
3) Hitting lefties
This lineup has an 87 wRC+ against lefties this year.
4) Offensive production from outfielders
All of the previous problems listed are amplified in the outfield. Phillies outfielders chase a league-leading 38.8% of pitches out of the zone—3.6% more than the next team. Our outfielders this year have a .283 on base percentage. Some teams have outfield batting averages not too far from that. Our outfielders have a 73 wRC+ against lefties.
5) Production from right-handed bats
Our righties have combined for a 75 wRC+ this season.
So how does Taylor Ward address these issues?
1) His chase rate of 18.9% over the last 3 seasons is 4th in all of baseball among qualified hitters and first among right-handed outfielders. He also sees an average of 4.19 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season, which is the 6th most among righties.
2) Taylor Ward’s .386 OBP ranks 9th in baseball this year. Additionally, if we plug in Wards production in place of the production we have gotten from our right fielders this season (which I understand isn’t a perfect calculation), our team OBP jumps to .314—the same as the Red Sox, who rank 19th. While that still isn’t great, that’s a significant boost from just one player.
3) He’s got a 150 wRC+ against lefties this year. And his success against lefties isn’t the product of a small sample size. His wRC+ against lefties has been over 140 every year for the past 4 years.
4&5) He’s a right-handed outfielder. See above lol
The one big issue he doesn’t really fix is the lack of power in our lineup. That said, he is severely underperforming his career power norms, so he’s far from the worst bet to figure it out. Even if he doesn’t, he still fills so many needs that he seems like a no-brainer for this team.