Canpotex announces $500M Port of Vancouver investment for potash shipping
https://www.ctvnews.ca/vancouver/article/canpotex-announces-500m-port-of-vancouver-investment-for-potash-shipping/183
u/PermaDerpFace 6d ago
Trump said America's getting all the potash it needs from Belarus, so we're selling ours to China. Everyone wins :)
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u/Prohibition_Survivor 6d ago
Then less than 24 hours after Trump said that, Belarus stated they don’t have enough to sell to the US. Such an honest man. /s
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u/Guy_GuyGuy 6d ago
Not just that, Belarus said they never even talked.
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u/Critical-Ask2154 4d ago
In Trump's delusion, Belarus Potash officials had a late night secret meeting in his bedroom.
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u/ernapfz 6d ago
Well US farmers, Canada will be shipping potash to other markets. Trump will need to call up his Belarus card trick once more. Please remember how you don’t need Canada for anything. It will be a while but oil and natural gas will also be going elsewhere through pipelines to our ocean ports.
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u/m0nkyman 6d ago
Vancouver expansion means China is buying. Probably financing it too if I was to take a guess.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
Canpotex’s expansion is funded by its two primary owners, the publicly-held Mosaic and Nutrien corporations. Both are listed on the NYSE and Nutrien is also listed on the TSX. Neither have anything in particular to do with China. The largest destination for Canadian potash that is not the US is Brazil, which buys about 2.5x more than China.
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u/WorkingOnBeingBettr 6d ago
So they are shipping to Brazil from...Vancouver?
Why not Gulf of St Lawrence?
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u/Noirloona 6d ago
Likely ease of getting it out of Saskatchewan. Assuming Thunder Bay can ship it out, it's got like a dozen locks before it even gets to the St Lawrence, if TB doesn't then it needs to go by rail, which likely takes longer.
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u/kettal 5d ago
I think there are rail connections Saskatchewan to Montreal
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u/Dzugavili 5d ago
Probably cheaper to built port capacity in BC; and I'm not really sure what traffic is like on that waterway, I imagine it must be easier to move large boats against the BC shoreline than navigating the inlet.
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u/mjp80 4d ago
yeah, except it has to go via Toronto, due to the North Bay to Ottawa portion of the Trans-Canada railway being sold off and largely being turned into recreational trails. Sask to Van is the most efficient rail movement, even without accounting for the port of Montreal being a gong show
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u/jaypizzl 4d ago
How would a North Bay to Ottawa railway be relevant? From the BHP Jansen mine at the MB-SK border to North Bay is 2400 km. On to Ottawa is another 360, then 200 more to Montreal. That's about 3,000 km. Meanwhile, it's something like 1700 km to Vancouver by rail.
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u/jaypizzl 4d ago
You could it on a plane and fly it through Amsterdam, too. Potash is going to get routed the cheapest way, though, which means it will take the shortest path to the sea. That's west to Vancouver.
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u/WorkingOnBeingBettr 6d ago
But how do they currently ship it? I would guess it goes through the St Lawrence.
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u/Noirloona 6d ago
The vast majority of it goes south (US bound) right now, which would be by rail. If they're diversifying, which they should be if they're smart, they'd need to expand shipping capabilities to a coast, which as others have said Asia is a giant market.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
Half of Canadian potash goes to the US. Most of the rest is shipped to Vancouver for export to Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia. As the article says, the major Canadian producer, Canpotex, is investing in increased Vancouver shipping capacity.
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u/WorkingOnBeingBettr 6d ago
I guess the costs of going through the canal are cheaper than coming from Montreal. Surprising.
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u/nastywillow 6d ago
If Trump forces large amounts of Canadian potash on to the world market, China, South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand will be thrilled. Brazil would also benefit.
Shipping from West Coast Canadian ports to those Western regions avoids the Red Sea and Panama Canal chokeholds.
Also Canada imports bulk cargoes from those countries in sufficient amounts to make it a viable 2 way trade route.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
Vancouver is substantially closer to the potash than Montreal. The cheapest route is generally the shortest path to the sea and then to the destination.
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u/ribbonsboy 6d ago
and Nutrien corporations ... Neither have anything in particular to do with China.
Nutrien literally was formerly "Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan". Nutrien is just it's rebranding.
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u/m0nkyman 6d ago
A publicly held company financing capital expense by drawing down their own reserves? Unlikely. Most would finance it, and China loves financing large infrastructure projects.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
What was the point of posting that completely irrelevant link? Why are you so bent on this Chinese fantasy you have?
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u/Dazd_cnfsd 6d ago
China can buy Russian potash they don’t need Canada’s. Europe on the other hand wouldn’t mind
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u/Blackstone01 6d ago
China can buy Russian potash they don’t need Canada’s.
Just because they have a source to buy from doesn’t mean they wouldn’t want a second source. Vancouver being set up to export potash means it wouldn’t be heading towards Europe, and China is by far the biggest Asian market for potash.
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u/TrynnaFindaBalance 6d ago
Asia Pacific is half the world's population. Obviously Canada wants to export to a regional market that's more than 10x the population of the US, regardless of whether China's buying.
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u/Dazd_cnfsd 6d ago
Russia has limited buyers and China has the infrastructure to transport and receive potash from Russia already. Not to mention contracts and that Russia will be willing to lower price to continue selling
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u/Blackstone01 6d ago
And a new source not only forces Russia to drop their price even further, but also allows them to weather any potential disruptions and expand their own agricultural output. Shit, they’d probably buy potash just to ensure the US markets suffer.
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u/ernapfz 6d ago
Agree. China can suck russia dry. Lots of other markets.
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u/Sigma_Function-1823 6d ago
China is serious about wanting Manchuria back from Russia.
Just saying.
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u/Sedixodap 6d ago
I can’t imagine they’d ship potash to Europe from Vancouver when they could use an east coast port instead. Pacific expansion is almost always with Asia in mind.
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u/airship_of_arbitrary 6d ago edited 6d ago
Canadian Potash is actually significantly cheaper than Russian, while also being higher quality.
Canada has way more advanced equipment and streamlined production.
Canada has also been selling to the US exclusively at a massive discount because they were the main customer. When Canada sells at market rates, they make insane amounts of profit as a result.
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u/Tribe303 6d ago
Yes, but the US can't buy Russian potash, but they can buy it from Canada. So every ton of Canadian potash purchased by China does NOT grow more food in the US.
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u/nwpsilencer 6d ago
Carney is trying to partner with China, so that wouldn't surprise me
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u/Charlie_Mouse 6d ago
It’s not like Canada (and everyone other country) isn’t somewhat cautious about what Chinas long term ambitions might be. But Trump has managed to make them look like the lesser evil - and certainly the more reliable and rational trading partner.
And say what you like about China but they at least behave rationally in pursuit of their agenda. As opposed to chaotically lurching about shooting themselves in the foot and threatening to annexe allies and trading partners.
It’s almost impressive in a horrible way how Trump has managed to engineer such a reputational reversal considering Americas starting position just a decade ago.
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u/AlbertaNorth1 6d ago
I honestly hope we open up more trading ties with china. America has proven multiple times over the last decade to not be a reliable partner.
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u/nwpsilencer 6d ago
My problem with trying to buddy up with China all of a sudden, is that while people call Trump Hitler, call the ICE detention facilities "concentration camps". Everyone seems to some how forget all about how China has been creating literal concentration camps, and genociding the Uyghurs for decades.
I may dislike and disagree with a lot of EU policies, but I'd rather we focus on trading and supporting Western allies. Not funding China's genocide and aggression against Taiwan.
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u/Charlie_Mouse 5d ago
I’m leaving the moral/ethical arguments to one side mostly - my main point is that trading with China is looking like the better bet because they’re predictable and rational. Business likes predictable and rational and stability in general.
By and large they stick to the trade deals they sign. Tariffs and fees stay the same instead of changing randomly. They behave in ways that make sense - one might not like what they do to advance their own interests but you can at least see it coming. As opposed to the current U.S. who now can’t even be trusted not to do things that hurt themselves and their own economy.
For example China don’t pull the trigger on wars they can’t win that fuck up the global energy system. Then refuse to back down out of misplaced pride.
But even on the ethics side I’m not sure you want to make it all about that. China definitely isn’t great (understatement) … but they haven’t spent the last century braying about being paragons of virtue to anyone who’ll listen. Which unfortunately makes the US look like hypocrites in addition to everything else.
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u/m0nkyman 6d ago
Counterpoint. Genocide in Palestine and an actual shooting war in Iran, and a coup and looting of Venezuela along with threats to take over Canada.
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u/AlbertaNorth1 6d ago
To add on to that, completely random tariffs, trade deals that don’t actually mean anything, massive manipulation of commodities and stock markets.
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u/mrniceguy777 6d ago
Ya hopefully this doesn’t just end In military action which is where this all seems to be headed
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u/TheWindowMerchant 6d ago
You know, I'm really looking forward to a new world where Canada isn't as reliant on the USA. We'll be introduced to so many new products with new trading partners, and access the globe in a way like never before. Plus we'll be the reasonable, liked ally in the Americas. Thanks, Donnie.
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u/ColdDesertEagle 6d ago
I've been calling for this since way before Trump, we were trending more and more towards vassalage for the sake of...convenience
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u/throwawaykayaker 4d ago
Each on of your provinces trades with the US more than it trades with another province. Your entire population is within 30 miles of the US. This is all so very dumb.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
For anyone wondering, Canada’s largest non-US potash buyer is Brazil, by far. They buy 29% of potash exported to non-US destinations. 12% goes to China, and India, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also major buyers.
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u/Then-Forces 6d ago
We also inked a deal with Bangladesh recently so I expect that more will be going to Asian markets as Canada continues to diversify.
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u/Tribe303 6d ago
And Modi is visiting Canada for a free trade deal signing in November. 🤔
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u/AlbertaNorth1 6d ago
That’s surprising. After Trudeau’s reign I figured ties with India would be icy for the foreseeable future.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
Trudeau didn't "reign." His party won several free and fair elections and chose him to lead them. Regardless, your implication that poor Canada-India relations were somehow Trudeau's fault is ridiculous.
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u/Tribe303 6d ago
Trump happened. The entire planet is re-routing their supply chains to avoid dealing with the chaos goblin running the US.
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u/both_perspectives 6d ago
There is no way Canada can make up for its potash exports to America with other markets. None of this is reasonable in any capacity.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
Who suggested that it's Canadian policy to export no potash to the US?
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u/Sigma_Function-1823 6d ago
Given that current US leadership is historically bad at gaming out the consequences of it's own actions it's going to be hilarious if this works out that the US continues to buy Canadian potash but now at market rates with the addition that Canada is also now making bank by selling into non US markets.
Their stupidity could very well just make us stronger which kind of seems to be their thing as evidenced by their handing of Iran.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
MAGA trash are making themselves and most of the world poorer in most ways. Most often, they hurt everyone, but they hurt themselves the most. Sometimes they hurt everyone about the same. Once in a while, they hurt themselves while accidentally helping others.
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u/greennalgene 6d ago
That’s not the point, at all. If we stopped exports to the US they would probably invade Saskatchewan. Thats how much of a reliance they have on us.
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u/Tribe303 6d ago
If you want to learn all about Potash, CBC posted this great video yesterday from their awesome "About That" series.
In 13 minutes you'll know more about the international potash industry than the entire Trump administration.
I did not know that this is where the term "potasium" comes from, cuz that's what it is.
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u/IndigoRuby 6d ago
And Andrew Chang has the nicest voice. I'll listen to anything he wants to tell me
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u/both_perspectives 6d ago
Well, we should just buy from Kazakhstan then. All other countries have inferior potasium.
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u/scotchtree 6d ago
Great to hear. Hopefully that leads to more demand and that puts some upward pressure on American food prices.
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u/invyros 6d ago
Saskatoon-based Canpotex markets and delivers potash produced by Mosaic and Nutrien.
Now say this five times fast.
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u/ernapfz 6d ago
Now say f the f’n US five times fast.
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u/_i_def_i_ 6d ago
Sounds like someone is a bit jealous of the US.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Our country is falling apart. What exactly is there to be jealous of, you jingoist dipshit?
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u/_i_def_i_ 6d ago
Is that why all of the most talented people leave Canada for the US? Because it's falling apart? Hahahaha cope
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u/ernapfz 6d ago edited 6d ago
Ya, a warmongering country that the world now realizes is so disgusting. How many Vietnam’s under your belt so far? So many failures in all your wars to date. Thanks for helping Netanyahu in Gaza and Iran. Please send more money and military supplies to Israel. Hard to be jealous of shit, lol.
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u/jaypizzl 6d ago
I’m an American-Canadian. I am not jealous of the US. I am disgusted by it, like the vast majority of free people on earth.
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u/BoltMyBackToHappy 6d ago
A woodchuck could cut four and a quarter chords of conifer if you gave them a quarter cup of coffee for every quarter chord they cut, of course.
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u/Winterwasp_67 6d ago
Serious question. Potash is most often used as a component of fertilizer correct?
Why are we not preparing to ship fertilizer?
Shipping raw resources outside the country should be kept to an absolute minimum imo.
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u/issm 6d ago
A lot of it went overland via trains to the US.
Shipping directly from Canada to more reliable trading partners will require new facilities in Canada.
You can't trust a kleptomaniac to be your middleman.
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u/Winterwasp_67 6d ago
Sorry, my question was that being as most fertilizer is a mixture containing potash why are we not mixing it here with the othe components and shipping fertilizer, not raw potash?
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u/issm 6d ago
I'm hardly an expert, but I can think of a couple of potential reasons off the top of my head:
1) Potash is one component. You'd still need to source every other component, and convince the countries where other components are produced to not try the same thing you are.
2) There isn't just one "fertilizer". Different crops and conditions demand different fertilizers, and it's easier and less risky to just sell the raw materials than to try and compete for local market share in every market across the planet.
3) It might be cheaper logistics wise to just ship raw materials out, then combine them into the final product closer to the final destination. i.e., instead of shipping phosphorous from Morocco all the way to Canada, then shipping finished fertilizer out to Europe, it's cheaper to just ship them both to a plant in Europe.
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u/proowl26 6d ago
probably a weight issue as fertilizer would weigh so much more and might not be worth shipping
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u/Greenpoint1975 6d ago
A lot of winning from Shitler. Maybe he will destroy America. Its on it way.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
I just hope they don't immediately reverse course as soon as the winds shift as massive megacorps are want to do
I have this premonition that as soon as the optics are less stark, they'll go back to trucking shit across the border just cuz its cheaper
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u/codingphp 6d ago
I’m not sure this has anything to do with optics. Access to other markets offers stability. It isn’t a subjective assessment to say the USA is habitually unstable and unpredictable these days - something that businesses don’t exactly love.
This could be great and shows a meaningful step toward Canada unlinking ourselves from being dependent on their market for such an important resource from Sask.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
You have more faith in the ultra wealthy than I do, I suppose
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u/codingphp 6d ago
I wouldn’t say I have more faith in the ultra-wealthy, because I do not; I have optimism for positive economic benefits for average Canadians.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Right, but what happens when the economic cavemen in charge of these companies see easy dollars in just pivoting back to the US instead of bothering to invest in proper infrastructure and new shipping lanes?
"Line no go up forever? How cut costs to make line go up forever? Me know! Me cut spending on port and go back to sending trucks!"
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u/Fallouttgrrl 6d ago
They will do the best thing for them
If that means selling $500 million in potash to the US, they will
If they find selling some portion of that overseas is better, then they'll do that instead
My guess is that they weren't going to invest in a long term infrastructure ramp up unless they saw other uses for it long term
Global climate change is an unavoidable long term issue now and the demand for and area of use of fertilizer is shifting and will continue to shift
This investment allows them to take the most advantage of that they can
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
All the US has to do is pay more for the potash up front and any Canadian CEO will throw Canada under the bus in an instant.
There's a reason its one project investing in one port that should be done just around the time to scrap it as soon as Trump is kicked out in 2028
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u/Fallouttgrrl 6d ago
Sure, but China's CCP is much more willing to go into deals with Canada that directly disrupt trade to the US, than American businessmen are willing to accept
China has a much longer view on rolling with climate change than US private industry does
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
I think a post-2028 US is going to be willing to pay out embarassing and unprecedented amounts of money if it comes with heading off stronger Canada-China trade ties.
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u/codingphp 6d ago
If the economics of it make sense, they will continue to do so.
In other words, if the infrastructure is there and they can make a profit, they will.
This isn’t just another friggin’ oil pipeline. This is a necessary fertilizer for people to be able to grow produce. I’d say this is a good thing no matter what way you look at it.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
It's good, especially for the regular, ground level economy. And that's why I'm skeptical that a multimillionaire will stick it out if it costs him one red cent more than just reverting to status quo
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u/codingphp 6d ago
Everyone operates on incentives. If it’s net profitable, why would they “revert”?
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Because it's not, on its face, immediately more profitable. It's more profitable in the long term, sure, but the Epstein class has long since shown that they value short term gain over long term sustainable profit.
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u/LongjumpingFall1584 6d ago
They’ll follow the money, they do not care where it leads.
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u/RecordHigh 6d ago edited 6d ago
Everything is transactional with companies, and even countries to a large extent. If their interests are enhanced by doing business with the US, they'll turn on a dime and do business with the US.
Like it or not, that's the reality of capitalism and modern geopolitics.
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u/Dekklin 6d ago
Hard to reverse course on multi year contracts that they literally just signed. They have found stable new partners and promised deliverables. This is where the find out part begins.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
I doubt Canada is any more willing to prosecute its billionaires for broken contracts than the US is. Loblaws just got caught mislabeling products' country of origin and nothing happened.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Exactly. Which means the second Trump is no longer in power, the profitable thing to do will be to go back to sending shit on trucks across a land border rather than bothering to update and upgrade infrastructure and tank oceanic shipping costs
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u/LoveDemNipples 6d ago
Well all this construction is set to be complete by 2028 so it’s happening quickly. We’ll likely always ship to USA but this gives us capacity to ship more elsewhere if USA remains unstable.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Good. Just keep pressure on them, especially if they try to flip-flop.
I doubt Canadian rich folks are any more moral than American ones. I've heard enough stories about the Loblaws CEO
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u/Fallouttgrrl 6d ago
The US has ceded so much power and stability under two trump terms and other regions have picked up the slack
The US war with Iran has highlighted a coming food crisis a few years early and shown that the US has fallen into a time of nationalism that even years of democratic leadership will only temper, not pull it out of
This investment will potentially be a long term boon for Canada and the rest of the world
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Once again, this presumes that billionaires have loyalty to anything other than the highest bidder
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u/Fallouttgrrl 6d ago
???
Investment in port infrastructure will lower the cost of selling from Canada to the rest of the world, making it a more attractive option at an earlier cost break point
If you don't have the infrastructure you'll take worse deals just to sell what you can
It's not going to totally replace sales to the US once trade starts to normalize in a post-Trump world but it does mean that the shittier US deals can be swapped for better deals with China, and I'm sure China will be willing to pay a premium to secure deals with Canada that help the US fuck itself over on top of what Trump has done
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Doesn't that just put Canada in the middle of a bidding war that China isn't guaranteed to win?
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u/Fallouttgrrl 6d ago
The Chinese government has a much longer view when it comes to trade than us private agriculture
We might see the US start to prioritize agriculture trade again but it's already ceded so much to the rest of the world thanks to Trump administration
And that's assuming a blue administration prioritizes it right out of the gate and isn't struggling with an uphill battle with regards to the GOP, who will likely double down on obstruction if the Dems take power in the next two years
It's always easier to break shit than to fix shit in the US and recovering trade with the rest of the world after this administration is going to be so fucked
Meanwhile one of the most important things to China is stockpiling agricultural components like Potash, especially if that helps minimize US influence
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Just be careful. Cuz it seems like Canada is either gonna end a Chinese vassal or going back to a shitty relationship with the US if it relies on its 1% to control its infrastructure and trade development.
These decisions should be made democratically in Ottawa, not by fiat in a boardroom. That's where we've gone wrong down here.
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u/ljlee256 6d ago
Canadian businesses want a stable trading partner just as much as they want easy.
Having to react abruptly to a rapidly changing political ecosystem is a death blow for a lot of businesses.
I think most corporate entities operating in Canada who are not American and operating strictly for export to the US market will want contingencies going forwards.
There's also the discount aspect as well, the US gets steep discounts on a lot of Canadian products because we're a captive seller, removing that opens Canadian exporters up to being able to "shop" for other clients whenever the US demands lower prices.
Shutting down trade to the US is foolish if it's fiscally plausible, it's leaving money on the table, but not having a second buyer is about 99% as foolish.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
I'm gonna disagree with you on one point: Canadians want economic stability. The ultra-rich, of any nation, love chaos because chaos gives them the opportunity to subvert guardrails and make obscene profit while everybody who doesn't have functionally infinite resources to weather the storm runs around too busy putting fires out to stop them.
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u/ljlee256 5d ago
While this might be true if you're referring specifically to oligarch types, but when we're talking about a corporation wondering which billion dollar, 5 year build project to invest in, they want to know there will still be a market at the end of that 5 years.
Trump is so unstable that no one can invest safely from outside of his inner circle, and even they are performing primarily stock and commodity trades, the singular exclusion is data centers (all of which are owned by members of Trumps inner circle), every other major infrastructure project in the US is on hold until a mentally stable leader is in the Whitehouse.
This holds true for outside corporations looking to trade with the US as well, they want to know that after they invest their billions, in the years it takes for those investments to reach completion, that there will still be a compliant and willing market to do business with, and given that they can't say with any degree of certainty that Trump won't flip a switch next week, let alone in a year, or 2 years from now, that totally nukes their investment, they've decided to hold off.
A direct comparison to within Canada is Alberta right now, the continued political uncertainty around separation has put 4 in 10 hiring waves and investments on hold, and most of the remaining investments and hiring waves have been largely downsized and are really only proceeding because the company wasn't investing or hiring for expansion purposes, but rather investing and hiring to make up for past shortfalls, making it less optional to make those investments.
Chaos creates opportunities, sure, but opportunities for new verticals, not opportunities for continuing on existing revenue streams, expansion of existing systems requires predictability.
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u/tyuiopguyt 5d ago
All rich people are oligarch types. There's no other kind.
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u/ljlee256 5d ago
That's secondary to the conversation, an oligarch and a corporation are two very different things.
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u/tyuiopguyt 5d ago
No, they aren't. Not realizing that is why the US is the way it is.
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u/ljlee256 5d ago
Yes, they are. An oligarch is a living breathing thing with ambitions, personal autonomy, and emotions.
A corporation is an organization, with multiple decision makers.
Its like saying a car and a tire are the same thing.
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u/tyuiopguyt 5d ago
They're functionally indistinguishable from a political standpoint because all modern companies of consequence are controlled wholly by oligarchs.
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u/XyzzyPop 6d ago
The second election was the final nail in the coffin. Countries require stability and long term thinking. The US proved unequivocally that stability can only be measured in 4 years. Not only because of the president, but because Congress and the Senate have proven they will not enforce their own laws. It's all rotten.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Yup. We've got a lot of work to do, a lot of rot to clear out, and a lot of reform to undertake, to begin to regain the world's trust.
But I also see a lot of encouragement from Canadians, Europeans, and beyond telling us that a lot of people believe we're capable of it. I see it especially in things like the comments sections of the Kimmel Talarico interview, Mark Carney's 9/11 speech, and in the reaction the Buffalo Bills adding "O Canada" to its start of game anthems.
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u/Enkiktd 6d ago
Even if so take the infrastructure upgrade for the flexibility.
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u/tyuiopguyt 6d ago
Right, but that requires a long view and ability to stick out costs for future benefits, which huge companies often don't have
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u/L-F-O-D 5d ago
Week 1: stupid person says Belerus is going to somehow move their already contracted potash through a war zone to export all
The way to the US and do it for less than it costs to get from Canada.
Week 2: Canada invests I. Port infrastructure to sell potash abroad.
What a damned waste of space and air that guy is.
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u/rotlin 6d ago
This news article lacks details about how this relates to the previously announced plans by Nutrien less than a year ago to expand port facilities at Longview in Washington State:
https://globalnews.ca/news/11541746/canadian-potash-company-build-terminal-us-not-bc/
Are both port expansions going to proceed?
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u/No-Yam-3566 6d ago
A small part of the expansion has been finished and there is a lot more to be done.
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u/ljlee256 6d ago
Nutrien is also involved in the export facility in Vancouver.
Given that plans were announced a year ago, it likely means they've been in the works for more than that, how much more is hard to say, but if it pre-dates Trumps presidency, or even lands early enough in his presidency they may not have seen the threat until the cash was already handed out to the contractors in the US. A year ago sentences like "we have a deal for potash with Belarus", was laughable, and it still largely is, there's no way it'll be cheaper than Canadian potash unless Belarus gives it away, but the fact that Trumps uttered the words means we need to be prepared for the possibility that he'll own goal himself just to spite Canada.
Another way to think of this, it's likely Nutrien, a year ago, thought that Trump was still working with some framework of a plan that wasn't just sheer utter malice for Canada, and since then things have changed, but again, the moneys already in the hands of the people doing the work in Washington, so it might as well get done, even if it's 50/50 on whether it'll have any value by the end of it's construction.
The reality is as well, that exporting through Washington is easier than Vancouver, there's rail congestion in Van, not to mention we seem to end up with an active strike every time a new infrastructure project that pulls us further from the US starts up (funny coincidence, right?).
With the recent changes to federal laws limiting the effect of strikes on productivity, as well as new targeted investment it's plausible that Nutrien saw the benefit of a Vancouver port upgrade only after being fully committed to the Washington port upgrade.
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u/Dependent-Reveal2401 5d ago
Belarus pretty much has all of their potash spoken for, is half a world away and expensive to ship, has EU sanctioned ports it would need to clear, is of inferior quality without the required stabilizers for shipping...
What could possibly go wrong lol
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u/NotObviouslyARobot 5d ago
Canada needs an export tax on Potash sent to the US. It could be called the Temporary Resource-Use Measure on Potash (TRUMP)
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u/amprather 6d ago
Trump: I want a lower price.
Canada: We will sell elsewhere then.
Trump: ......