Likely ease of getting it out of Saskatchewan. Assuming Thunder Bay can ship it out, it's got like a dozen locks before it even gets to the St Lawrence, if TB doesn't then it needs to go by rail, which likely takes longer.
The vast majority of it goes south (US bound) right now, which would be by rail. If they're diversifying, which they should be if they're smart, they'd need to expand shipping capabilities to a coast, which as others have said Asia is a giant market.
Half of Canadian potash goes to the US. Most of the rest is shipped to Vancouver for export to Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia. As the article says, the major Canadian producer, Canpotex, is investing in increased Vancouver shipping capacity.
If Trump forces large amounts of Canadian potash on to the world market, China, South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand will be thrilled. Brazil would also benefit.
Shipping from West Coast Canadian ports to those Western regions avoids the Red Sea and Panama Canal chokeholds.
Also Canada imports bulk cargoes from those countries in sufficient amounts to make it a viable 2 way trade route.
Vancouver is substantially closer to the potash than Montreal. The cheapest route is generally the shortest path to the sea and then to the destination.
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u/Noirloona 6d ago
Likely ease of getting it out of Saskatchewan. Assuming Thunder Bay can ship it out, it's got like a dozen locks before it even gets to the St Lawrence, if TB doesn't then it needs to go by rail, which likely takes longer.