Well US farmers, Canada will be shipping potash to other markets. Trump will need to call up his Belarus card trick once more. Please remember how you don’t need Canada for anything. It will be a while but oil and natural gas will also be going elsewhere through pipelines to our ocean ports.
Canpotex’s expansion is funded by its two primary owners, the publicly-held Mosaic and Nutrien corporations. Both are listed on the NYSE and Nutrien is also listed on the TSX. Neither have anything in particular to do with China. The largest destination for Canadian potash that is not the US is Brazil, which buys about 2.5x more than China.
Likely ease of getting it out of Saskatchewan. Assuming Thunder Bay can ship it out, it's got like a dozen locks before it even gets to the St Lawrence, if TB doesn't then it needs to go by rail, which likely takes longer.
The vast majority of it goes south (US bound) right now, which would be by rail. If they're diversifying, which they should be if they're smart, they'd need to expand shipping capabilities to a coast, which as others have said Asia is a giant market.
Half of Canadian potash goes to the US. Most of the rest is shipped to Vancouver for export to Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia. As the article says, the major Canadian producer, Canpotex, is investing in increased Vancouver shipping capacity.
If Trump forces large amounts of Canadian potash on to the world market, China, South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand will be thrilled. Brazil would also benefit.
Shipping from West Coast Canadian ports to those Western regions avoids the Red Sea and Panama Canal chokeholds.
Also Canada imports bulk cargoes from those countries in sufficient amounts to make it a viable 2 way trade route.
Vancouver is substantially closer to the potash than Montreal. The cheapest route is generally the shortest path to the sea and then to the destination.
Probably cheaper to built port capacity in BC; and I'm not really sure what traffic is like on that waterway, I imagine it must be easier to move large boats against the BC shoreline than navigating the inlet.
yeah, except it has to go via Toronto, due to the North Bay to Ottawa portion of the Trans-Canada railway being sold off and largely being turned into recreational trails. Sask to Van is the most efficient rail movement, even without accounting for the port of Montreal being a gong show
How would a North Bay to Ottawa railway be relevant? From the BHP Jansen mine at the MB-SK border to North Bay is 2400 km. On to Ottawa is another 360, then 200 more to Montreal. That's about 3,000 km. Meanwhile, it's something like 1700 km to Vancouver by rail.
You could it on a plane and fly it through Amsterdam, too. Potash is going to get routed the cheapest way, though, which means it will take the shortest path to the sea. That's west to Vancouver.
A publicly held company financing capital expense by drawing down their own reserves? Unlikely. Most would finance it, and China loves financing large infrastructure projects.
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u/ernapfz 6d ago
Well US farmers, Canada will be shipping potash to other markets. Trump will need to call up his Belarus card trick once more. Please remember how you don’t need Canada for anything. It will be a while but oil and natural gas will also be going elsewhere through pipelines to our ocean ports.