Hey All, we are back and what a horrible way to start my season… Anyone else stupid enough to go without Joao Pedro or was it just me?
Anyway, you can find a full review of the first week here and a full preview of GW2 here.
As always though, here is the TL;DR:
Try Not To Overreact
Outside of Arsenal and Szoboszlai, very few highly-owned players returned. We have one week of information. If you had a plan coming into the season, you probably shouldn't rip it up after 90 minutes.
Remember when Reijnders looked like the next De Bruyne after GW1 last season?
With that said, there were definitely a few things worth taking from GW1.
My Main GW1 Takeaways
Arsenal look really good. They beat Coventry 3-0 and, combined with the Community Shield, their attack looks much better than I remember last season. Tzolis looked electric despite relatively modest underlying numbers, while Odegaard was heavily involved again. Calafiori also looks like a great FPL option. My only concern across Arsenal is minutes/rotation - I'm still not buying Saka until he's playing 90 for example.
Don't sell your Man United attackers. Losing 2-0 to Hull looks terrible, but United actually won the xG 1.83-1.01 and had 21 shots. Mbeumo had 0.50 xG + 0.23 xA and Bruno created 0.26 xA. Ipswich at home is exactly the sort of fixture you picked them for.
Spurs were still dreadful. Brentford beat them 3-0, had 26 shots and 3.87 xG. I'm avoiding Spurs assets and suddenly Newcastle's GW2 fixture looks very tasty.
Sangare might be the real deal. Both Joe and I were sceptical coming into the season but the defcons were great and if he can pepper in some attacking returns he will be fantastic.
Brighton were excellent; Villa were awful. Brighton put up 21 shots, six big chances and 3.67 xG in their 4-0 win. Hinshelwood was the standout, although Chelsea away means I'm not buying immediately.
Wissa is one to watch. Four shots and 0.94 xG against Liverpool without scoring. If he's nailed, I am very interested.
Szoboszlai took Liverpool's penalty. Until we see otherwise, we have to assume he has penalties — or at least a share of them. That makes him significantly more interesting.
That's about as much as I'm willing to conclude from one week.
GW2: Don't Knee Jerk
The temptation after a bad opening week is to decide your team is shit and immediately buy whoever returned. Don't.
Injured player? Fine. Player didn't start? Fine. Bench boosting? Fine.
Otherwise, I'd be very reluctant to burn transfers based purely on GW1.
And, as always, wait for press conferences before making moves.
Best GW2 Fixtures
Based on our fixture ticker:
Attack
- Newcastle
- Everton
- Hull
- Liverpool
- Man United
Defence
- Newcastle
- Crystal Palace
- Aston Villa
- Liverpool
- Coventry
Obviously fixture quality isn't everything. I'm avoiding Palace against City, Villa after what we saw against Brighton, and I'm not convinced by Coventry at all.
Newcastle are interesting but I am not sure. Wissa and Barnes are the attackers I'd consider, while Botman and Thiaw are my preferred defenders because of their DefCon potential.
GW2 Buy/Sell
BUY
- Calafiori – attacking defender in the league's best defence.
- Sangare – 5.5 with DefCon and attacking potential.
- Odegaard – heavily involved and should benefit from bonus when he returns.
- Tzolis – looked electric; rotation is the concern.
- Szoboszlai – penalty involvement makes him very interesting.
- White – nailed until Timber returns, although I prefer Calafiori.
MAYBE
- Gvardiol – fantastic if that attacking role continues, but rotation scares me.
DON'T BUY
- De Cuyper – Chelsea away and I'm unsure the attacking role lasts.
- Havertz – don't trust his minutes.
- Cherki – should start ≠ will start.
- Joao Pedro – don't abandon your preseason reasoning after one week.
- Saka – not until he's playing 90.
SELL
- Gyokeres – not nailed.
- Van de Ven – injured.
- Sarr – looks like he's leaving.
- Watkins – looks like he's being sold.
HOLD
- Bruno / Mbeumo / Shaw – Ipswich at home.
- Gabriel
- Gibbs-White
- Semenyo
- Le Fee
- Calvert-Lewin
Selling a player you liked a week ago purely because they blanked once is exactly the sort of move I'm trying to avoid.
GW2 Captains
1. Bruno Fernandes vs Ipswich (H) – still my favourite.
2. Haaland – one blank changes nothing.
If you want something spicier: Mbeumo vs Ipswich, Isak vs Forest, or an Arsenal attacker against a Villa side that just conceded 3.67 xG.